縣市長選舉落幕

「五都」之戰即將開打
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2010 / 1月

文‧編輯部


中華民國第16屆「三合一」地方選舉已於12月5日平靜落幕,在17個縣市中,國民黨拿下了12個縣市,民進黨攻佔4個,另一名當選者是國民黨違紀參選的花蓮縣長傅崐萁。


此項選戰結果雖不令人意外,但國、民兩黨的得票率空前接近,對近4年來在地方選舉、立委選舉及總統大選中均勢如破竹的國民黨來說,仍是一個不小的警訊。兩黨激爭中,今(2010)年底「新五都之役」的關鍵選戰,也已提前開跑。

此次「三合一」選舉(含縣市長、縣市議員及鄉鎮市長),在剔除了剛升格為準直轄市的台北縣(新北市)、台中縣市、台南縣市,及高雄縣(將併入高雄市)等6縣市後,僅有17位縣市長需改選,其中10位又屬連任競選,僅有7縣市是新人角逐。因為藍綠版圖分明,儘管兩大黨都由高層領軍掃街拜票,但選情增溫有限。

以縣市長當選席次論,兩黨差距高達3倍(12:4),但就得票率來看,國民黨僅以47.88%「小贏」民進黨的45.32%,雙方差距僅僅2.56個百分點,較2005年底的上屆縣市長選舉(9個百分點)大幅縮小。

尤其被視為「雙英對決」、「藍綠輸贏在此一縣」的宜蘭縣,國民黨連任者呂國華敗給了民進黨的林聰賢,短短4年「藍天」後,宜蘭重又回歸過去長達24年的「綠地」懷抱,也成為民進黨在北中東藍天環伺下的唯一綠色突圍點。

分析此次執政黨選情失利的原因,學者認為大致有以下幾點:

一是選民「反扁」的激憤情緒消退,在阿扁羈押已超過一年、懲罰已夠的情況下,基於「賭爛」(不爽)而投給國民黨的票大幅減少,這也顯示民進黨已擺脫包袱走出谷底,氣勢開始上揚。

二是國民黨為凸顯改革決心,不僅全力查緝賄選、杜絕積弊已久的「走路工」陋習,並選擇與傳統地方派系保持距離、與有案在身者劃清界限,即使犧牲選票也在所不惜。

例如花蓮現任立委、地方實力最堅強的傅崐萁,因為炒股案官司纏身不被提名,在被開除國民黨黨籍後仍打著「正藍軍」招牌並當選,當選後還一度宣布任命剛離婚的「前妻」為副縣長,令選民大感錯愕;相形之下,國民黨雖然拱手讓出寶貴的一席,但堅持「清廉執政」的決心仍贏得了不少掌聲。

三是為了避免民進黨炒熱選情增加變數,國民黨選擇在民調大幅領先的「鐵票區」如台東縣、澎湖縣等進行「冷處理」,反倒不利當地的投票動員,僅以險勝過關。

第四項最關鍵的,還是國民黨執政一年半來波折不斷,先是全球金融風暴,導致台灣出現史上最嚴重的經濟衰退(2009年預估為-2.53%)和最高的失業率(約6.0%);正當馬政府拚經濟的努力已展現成效時,又發生了暴雨破表、死傷慘重的「莫拉克風災」和「美國牛肉開放進口」風波。加上部分民眾對兩岸大和解的速度和方式始終抱持疑慮,也影響了投票意向。

令人遺憾的是,「地方自治」雖是民主的基石,但在政治爭議無限上綱的台灣,即使是地方選舉,也少見各縣市針對財政、稅收、招商投資、就業及失業、治安、社會福利與醫療、都市計畫等進行攻防;政治人物打高空,基層民眾則憑印象、感受或親疏關係決定選票流向,要想落實地方自主發展,顯然還有一段長路要走。

「三合一」選舉才剛落幕,緊接著有7名立委出缺將陸續補選,再加上2010年底選民人數占全國60%以上、更為關鍵的「新五都」選戰也將登場,藍綠兩大黨均嚴陣以待。

選後不久,國民黨秘書長改由馬英九總統的核心智囊金溥聰出任,民進黨秘書長亦由前內政部長蘇嘉全出任,新一回合鏖戰開始,希望兩黨能秉持良性競爭,為台灣帶來更好的明天。

2009年地方縣市長選舉政黨板塊消長

 

本屆2009

上屆2005

席次        得票率(%) 席次        得票率(%)
國民黨 12            47.88 14            50.96
民進黨 4              45.32 6              41.95
其他 1               6.80 3               7.09

相關文章

近期文章

EN

Three-in-One Polls Complete, Taiwan Gears Up for More Elections

the editors /tr. by Geof Aberhart

On December 5th 2009, the Republic of China held its 16th "three-in-one" regional elections. The Kuomintang took 12 of the 17 cities and counties involved, with the Democratic Progressive Party taking four and the final seat-that of Hualien County magistrate-going to former KMT candidate Fu Kun-chi.


While these results may not be especially surprising, the actual vote tallies for both KMT and DPP candidates were closer than ever, constituting a strong warning for the KMT when considered in the light of their stellar showings in the regional, legislative, and presidential elections over the previous four years. It has also seen both parties quick off the mark to prepare for the 2010 "Five-City Battle," the elections for the mayoralties of what will then be Taiwan's five "special municipalities."

These "three-in-one" elections-so called because they include elections for city mayors/county magistrates, city/county councilors, and township mayors-came in the wake of the announced 2010 elevation of Taipei County, Taichung City and County, and Tainan City and County to special municipalities, along with the integration of Kaohsiung County into the Kaohsiung City special municipality. This left only 17 city mayor and county magistrate positions to be filled, only seven of which were not won by incumbents. Due to the clearly different goals of the KMT and the DPP, despite each party's best campaign efforts there was only so much excitement they could stir up for these elections.

When looked at purely in terms of seats won, the KMT walked away winning three times the seats the DPP won (12 to four). But in terms of actual votes cast, the KMT narrowly squeaked past the DPP with only a 2.56% lead (47.88% of the vote compared with 45.32%)-a massive drop from the 2005 year-end elections, where they led by 9%.

One example of the warning being sounded was Yilan County, considered a battleground county. KMT incumbent Lu Kuo-hua lost to DPP challenger Lin Tsong-shyan, returning Yilan to green-camp hands, where it had been for 24 years previously before a brief four-year "blue-sky" interlude under the KMT. This also made Yilan the only green seat in a sea of KMT blue across northern, central, and eastern Taiwan.

Experts believe that the main reasons for this loss of confidence in the ruling party include:

1) With the anti-Chen Shui-ban protests receding into memory and Chen himself having been in jail for over a year, thus being "punished enough," dissatisfaction was no longer a sufficient motivator to get large numbers of people to vote KMT as they did previously. This is a sign that the DPP may be out of the wastelands and on the rise again.

2) The KMT has recently emphasized reform, actively investigating allegations of vote buying, distancing themselves from traditional regionalist factions, and cutting off those accused of misconduct. While this has cost them votes, that is a risk they deemed worth running.

Take for example the race for Hualien County magistrate: When locally popular legislator Fu Kun-chi was implicated in an insider trading scandal, the KMT chose not to nominate him for the seat. After being expelled from the party, Fu ran as an independent under a "true blue" banner, winning the seat. Merely days later, Fu announced that his "ex-wife" would serve as his deputy, much to the dismay of the electorate. While the KMT's decision left the party with no candidate in Hualien County, their dedication to "clean government" earned them much applause.

3) In order to avoid the DPP rallying voters against them, the KMT chose to run a low-key campaign in safe seats like Taitung and Penghu Counties. This also had the unforeseen effect of not mobilizing KMT supporters in significant numbers, leading to only narrow victories.

4) Most crucially, the past year and a half under KMT leadership has seen a succession of disasters. First was the global recession, which created the greatest economic contraction in Taiwan's history (with the economy forecast to have contracted by 2.53% in 2009) and record unemployment (approximately 6.0%). Then, just as the administration's efforts to stabilize the economy began to show signs of working, Typhoon Morakot's devastation of the south and the controversy over the renewed importation of American beef gave them a one-two punch. On top of this, the reservations of some regarding the speed and style of the developing rapprochement between Taiwan and China also impacted voter preferences.

Regrettably, while local autonomy is the cornerstone of democracy, in this land of constant political controversy we heard virtually nothing from the candidates in these local elections regarding fiscal policy, taxation, attracting investment, employment, public security, social welfare, healthcare, urban planning, or any other such topics. Politicians merely painted grandiose pictures for the public, who then voted on the basis of impressions, feelings, and guanxi. If we want to develop true local autonomy, we clearly have a way to go yet.

With the dust barely settled from the three-in-one elections, seven legislative seats now face by-elections. Couple this with the fact that over 60% of Taiwan's electorate will have the opportunity to vote in the 2010 battle for the new municipalities, and it is clear that both the blue and green camps still have significant fights ahead of them.

Not long after the elections, Chin Pu-tsung, one of President Ma's closest advisors, was appointed KMT general secretary, while former interior minister Su Jia-chyuarn was appointed DPP general secretary. As the bell rings on this next round, we can only hope that both parties will continue this amicable competition and both strive to create a better tomorrow for Taiwan.

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