開闢第二軌道?──台海和平使者裴利探路

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1999 / 4月

文‧陳妙鈴



倡議兩岸和談「第二軌道」的美國前國防部長裴利,即刻三月七日結束在大陸的一周行程,率團抵台訪問。

在兩岸穿梭的裴利,希望透過第二軌道,促成兩岸和平進程,同時保障美國在東亞的利益。到底第二軌道會對海峽兩岸關係產生什麼影響,在海協會會長汪道涵即將來訪前夕,備受注目。

目前任教於史丹福大學的裴利,率領包括美國前國防部助理部長卡特、前參謀首長聯席會議主席夏利等人來台訪問。來台前,已與汪道涵在杭州進行「美『中』安全問題研討會」,討論雙方的軍事交流現況,其中也包括敏感的「戰區飛彈防禦體系TMD」與台海議題。

停留大陸期間,裴利曾與中共國家主席江澤民會談。江澤民重申,希望美國恪守三項公報與聯合聲明的原則,並提出對台灣納入TMD的顧慮。不過他也對美方利用非官方管道加強對話、增進了解,作出正面回應。

裴利來台後,見到了我國總統李登輝、外交部長胡志強、陸委會主任委員蘇起等重要官員,表達其對台海和平的觀點,並提出相關「建設性的建議」。總統李登輝則再次強調,我國不會、也不需要宣佈獨立,而且向來追求和平、民主、自由,與民主陣營國家的目標一致。

前後見到兩岸最高領導人,裴利在返美之後指出,兩岸政府都很願意接受他的提議,我國政府也很支持他的努力。不過他也形容李登輝對兩岸對話的步驟雖然正面卻仍有所保留。

針對裴利的說法,總統府旋即發表聲明指出,李登輝並非支持「第二軌道」,兩岸已有正常溝通管道,兩岸問題應透過既有管道處理。

陸委會主委蘇起強調,第一軌道是唯一合法管道,第二軌道不向立法院負責,我們雖然尊重裴利提供的第二軌道,但僅具學術及參考性質,不能取代第一軌道。

整體而言,我國仍頗重視裴利所提第二軌道的功能。外交部長胡志強也認為,裴利是美國重要意見領袖,目前仍代表美方與北韓談判,此次到訪如果只聽對岸說法不免產生誤解,因此歡迎裴利來訪,我方並建議「美中關係全國委員會」贊助裴利來台進行類似「杭州會議」的安全議題研討。

裴利自己也澄清,他不是要參與「第一軌道」的兩岸官方對話。第二軌道並沒有權利去做協商,主要功用在提供比較寬廣的溝通方式。

前國民黨籍立委、交通大學教授魏鏞指出,第二軌道早在春秋戰國時代就有蘇秦、張儀的例子,現在的智庫和公關公司、卸任官員、學者都可以扮演此類角色。尤其是美國外交事務決策過程會廣泛參考各界意見,裴利回國後的報告必定會產生影響力。

另外,裴利來台也會晤了反對黨政治明星陳水扁,傳達了美國不支持台獨的立場。陳水扁認為,任何有助維持台海及西太平洋和平的方案,他都樂觀其成。他也強調,民進黨作為負責任的政黨,會以審慎態度面對台灣前途的問題。而他與裴利都同意,兩岸應降低緊張關係,加強文化、經貿、科技等方面的交流。

儘管各界樂見第二軌道的貢獻,但是民進黨籍的東吳大學政治系副教授郭正亮也認為,北京對台的外交封鎖和軍事威脅,不降反升,已使第二軌道外交大感吃力。

最明顯的例子就反映在最近的「戰區飛彈防禦體系」議題上。一方面,美國眾議院去年通過「國防授權法」,要求政府將台灣納入TMD;在中共方面,則是對我國加入TMD一事相當反感,中共外交部長唐家璇直接指責台灣是「挾洋自保」,造成軍備競賽。與此同時,我方也為了加入與否,掀起論戰。論者不外於TMD費用龐大及是否實質有益於台海安全等議題。事實上,中共若放棄武力犯台,TMD自然不一定需要,若是中共不肯放鬆對台武力恫嚇,再多對話軌道也是枉然。在二軌、三軌……深受注目的同時,兩岸政府授權的正式對談管道──海基會與海協會,已於三月中進一步接觸。海協會副秘書長李亞飛三月怳C日率團訪華,針對年底前汪道涵來訪事宜,與海基會副秘書長詹志宏進行磋商。

磋商結果初步決定,汪道涵可望於秋天來台訪問,屆時將是近五怞~來,大陸授權訪台的最高層級官員。總統李登輝在接見裴利時曾指出,若是時間允許,汪道涵今年來訪時,他願意帶汪道涵到處走走。正在進行中的第一軌道進展如何,能否發揮效用,屆時便見分曉。

p51

「您先說吧!」陸委會主委蘇起與裴利互相承讓,在兩岸議題方面卻是各有主見。(韓同慶攝)

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EN

Opening up "Track Two"? Perry's Proposal for Cross-Strait Dialogue

Marlene Chen /tr. by Christopher MacDonald


Advocating "Track Two" peace talks across the Taiwan Strait, a delegation led by former US Secretary of Defense William Perry arrived in Taiwan on March 7, after a one-week trip to the mainland.

Shuttling between the mainland and Taiwan in this way, Perry hopes, by means of Track Two, to facilitate the cross-strait peace process and also safeguard US interests in East Asia. With the mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) Chairman Wang Daohan due to visit Taiwan later this year, much attention has been given to Track Two, and how it might affect cross-strait relations.

Now a professor at Stanford University, William Perry arrived in Taiwan at the head of a delegation that included former US Deputy Defense Secretary Ashton Carter and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff John Shalikashvili. Before coming to Taiwan, the group met with Wang Daohan in Hangzhou for a meeting on bilateral security issues, discussing the current state of military exchanges between the mainland and the US, and sensitive matters such as the "Theater Missile Defense" (TMD) system and the cross-strait situation.

Perry also held talks with President Jiang Zemin, who reiterated his hope that the US would abide scrupulously by the principles of the three Washington-Beijing communiques and the recent joint declaration, and voiced concern about the inclusion of Taiwan under TMD. However, Jiang responded positively to the use by the US of non-official channels to strengthen dialogue and improve understanding.

In Taiwan, Perry met with top officials including President Lee Teng-hui, Foreign Minister Jason Hu and Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Chairman Su Chi, expressing his views on cross-strait peace and putting forward some "constructive proposals." President Lee meanwhile, re-emphasized that Taiwan will not, and does not need to declare independence, and that its continuing pursuit of peace, democracy and freedom is consistent with the objectives of the world's democratic nations.

On his return to the US, having met with the top leadership on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, Perry indicated that both governments were very willing to accept his proposals, and that Taiwan's government strongly supported his efforts. However, he also described Lee Teng-hui as having reservations about the steps being taken for cross-strait dialogue, though still being positive overall.

The Presidential Office promptly issued a statement pointing out that Lee does not support "Track Two," that normal channels for communication are already in place, and that cross-strait issues should be dealt with through existing channels.

MAC Chairman Su Chi emphasized that what he called "Track One" is the only legally mandated channel, unlike Track Two, which is not accountable before the Legislative Yuan, and added that while Taiwan respects Perry's "Track Two," it is a channel with an academic, referential nature, and cannot take the place of Track One.

Nevertheless, Taiwan still regards Track Two as filling an important function. Foreign Minister Jason Hu notes that Perry is an important leader of opinion in the US, and currently represents his country in negotiations with North Korea. If he had heard only the mainland's version of events during his recent trip, some misreading of the situation would have been unavoidable, which is why Taiwan welcomed his visit and proposed that the National Committee on US-China Relations arrange for him to return to Taiwan for a discussion of security issues similar to the recent meeting in Hangzhou.

Perry himself clarifies that he has no wish to participate in the official, "Track One" dialogue between the two sides. Track Two, he explains, isn't mandated for consultations. Its main use is to provide a wider means of communication.

National Chiao Tung University professor Wei Yung, a former KMT legislator, refers to Su Qin and Zhang Yi, famous strategists during the Warring States period, as an example of track-two-type contacts, and says that think-tanks, PR companies, academics and retired officials can all play a similar role today. Given the way that the foreign affairs policy-making process in the US draws on a wide range of opinions, Perry's report after this trip is bound to prove influential.

While in Taiwan, Perry also met opposition star Chen Shui-bian, and conveyed the US position that it does not support Taiwan independence. In Chen's view, any plan that helps maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait and the Western Pacific is something that he welcomes. Chen emphasized that as a responsible political party, the DPP will deal with the issue of Taiwan's future in a prudent manner, and he also agreed with Perry that the two sides need to lower tension while boosting exchanges in the areas of culture, trade and technology.

In spite of positive attitudes all round regarding the contribution made by Track Two, Kuo Cheng-liang, associate professor in politics at Soochow University, believes that Beijing's diplomatic blockade of Taiwan, and the military threat that it poses against the island, have intensified rather than eased, and this has already put Track Two diplomacy under a big strain.

The TMD issue provides the clearest example of this. Over in the US, the Defense Authorization Bill passed last year by the House of Representatives, requires the US government to include Taiwan under TMD. Beijing, on the other hand, is sharply against Taiwan's inclusion under TMD, and the mainland's foreign minister has directly accused Taiwan of creating an arms race by "relying on foreigners for self-protection." At the same time, debate has erupted within Taiwan itself as to whether or not we should join TMD, with questions raised about the massive costs of the plan and whether or not it will bring substantive security benefits for the Taiwan Strait. Of course, if Beijing were to drop its threat to use force against Taiwan, TMD wouldn't necessarily be needed, while if the intimidation continues, all tracks of dialogue are in vain anyway.

At the same time as attention was turned to "tracks two, three..." and so on, further contact was taking place through the formal channel of communication authorized by both governments-namely between the SEF (Straits Exchange Foundation) and ARATS. On March 17, ARATS deputy secretary-general Li Yafei brought a delegation to Taiwan and held consultations with SEF deputy secretary-general Jan Jyh-horng, on the subject of Wang Daohan's visit to Taiwan later this year.

A preliminary decision was made that Wang should be able to visit this Autumn, when he will become the highest-level official from the mainland to make an authorized visit to Taiwan in the last half century. In his meeting with William Perry, President Lee said that time permitting, he would be willing to personally show Wang Daohan around Taiwan when he visits this year. We will have to wait for the outcome of that visit to know how effectively progress is being made at present through the Track One channel.

p51

"You start!" MAC Chairman Su Chi in conversation with William Perry: their views on cross-strait issues differed. (photo by Han Tung-ching)

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