Q: Several countries are already investing massive sums in developing nanotechnology. Where do Taiwan's strengths lie?
A: Not all countries' national nanotechnology plans are structured in the same way. Most countries have put the emphasis on basic research and emerging industries. For instance, the US is putting 60% of its program resources into the field of nanobiotechnology, whereas in Taiwan we are only allocating 5% to that field. So there is a distinction between us.
Also, most of the advanced countries are focusing mainly on cutting-edge basic nanoscience research, which may not yield industrially applicable results for at least 15 years. But in Taiwan, we are putting 60% of our resources into industrial applications. As everyone knows, quickly commercializing new technologies is Taiwan's forte, and this is a strength we should take advantage of.
Q: What the main areas of development in Taiwan?
A: We should approach this question from the angle of major industry trends. According to US and Japanese estimates, the production value of the worldwide nanotechnology industry will reach something over US$70 billion in 2005, but by 2010 it will have exploded to US$1 trillion. That represents overall growth of almost 13 times, and the field of communications electronics will grow by 25 times. But in fact this period is even more significant than these figures suggest.
In other words, over the next two to four years, the creation of output value in nanotechnology worldwide will mostly be concentrated in applications that upgrade processes in traditional industry. White-hot growth in nanoscale communications electronics will not begin until the period from 2005 to 2010, and the nanotechnology development program drawn up by the ITRI is completely tailored to this trend.
In specific terms, in order to be ready for the nanoelectronics race five to ten years from now, we will concentrate our R&D effort on five key areas of industry that hold out the greatest hope of success.
The first is the extension of CMOS production technology into the nanometer scale. The production technology for CMOS silicon-chip semiconductors is crucial to Taiwan's most important industrial profit base, which is why in 2003 TSMC will launch a 90-nanometer-line-width process, and the next goal is to launch a 65-nanometer process in 2005. It is predicted that this technology's physical limit of 9 nanometers will be reached within the next 15 to 20 years. During that timeframe, it is unlikely that any other production technology will be mature enough to replace CMOS technology.
Apart from this, we are currently working with TSMC to develop magnetic memory devices. This type of memory can combine the advantages of the existing DRAM, SRAM and flash memory types, so it has been called "ultimate memory." The aim is to go into volume production in 2004, in step with first-rank global manufacturers.
The second area of focus is new-generation displays. The first product in this area is field-emission displays, using carbon nanotubes. FEDs have the same advantages as plasma and LCD displays, but will be much cheaper and can be even larger in size. At present the Samsung Group of Korea is well advanced in this field, but we too have set up a joint R&D alliance with TECO Electric and Machinery and other Taiwanese firms.
Flexible displays, which combine plastics and electronics technologies, are another major area of future development in this field. If computer screens could be manufactured as a continuous sheet rather than one panel at a time, and if they could also be rolled up to fit in a briefcase, this would greatly increase their convenience.
The third area is so-called "quantum-dot lasers." A quantum dot is a device that traps a small number of electrons as a "droplet." A quantum dot laser is a type of light source that in the future can be used in optical data transmission, and can also produce white light as a replacement for fluorescent lighting. They can also be developed as the basis for the next generation of displays, after those based on carbon nanotubes. They will use 90% less power, and have a broader spectral range.
In fact, at the end of this year the ITRI will announce the world's first light source for optical communications and lighting that is ready for commercial production. It has been developed by the ITRI's Opto-Electronics and Systems Laboratories in collaboration with the Ioffe Institute in Russia. Ioffe's director is the 2000 Nobel physics laureate Dr. Zhores Alferov. With such a strong research group, combined with the flexibility, speed, and efficient, low-cost volume production of Taiwanese manufacturers, I believe Taiwan can be among the first to get into manufacturing nanoscale laser light sources.
Our fourth focus of development is super-high-density data storage media. At present, one DVD can store 4.7 gigabytes of data. If the pits in the disc surface that represent the data could be greatly reduced in size, it is estimated that in future we could reach terabyte units, or 200 times today's capacities.
The final major focus is miniature fuel cells. We expect that by 2006 we can develop mobile phone batteries that will run for 50 days on standby, and notebook computer batteries that will run for 12 hours. When you go and sit in a cafe to write an urgent report and go online to find information via a wireless Internet connection, you won't have to worry about your computer running out of power.
The above five areas of focus will prepare us for the takeoff of nanoelectronics in 2005. All these orientations are goals that many major international companies are aiming at, and there is consensus on them in industry, so there won't be the problem of the bubble bursting or of our having taken the wrong road. We are confident that this time around, Taiwan will be able to leave behind its "second-rank" status and become a leading developer of many kinds of product.
Q: What about the upgrading of traditional industries?
A: You could call that our sixth major focus, and it is something we are already actively engaged in. But the possibilities in this area are infinite. The applications of nanoscale powders alone encompass many different industries, and developing these applications is not something ITRI can do alone. It takes a "mass wave assault" approach: the more people one can encourage to try their hand, the greater the chances of success. This is why we have set up a number of nanotechnology promotion associations for various industries, to act as a catalyst, on the one hand helping companies to develop manufacturing processes, and on the other assisting them with inspection and certification.
You could say that overall we are working on a 20:60:20 ratio: 20% of our program resources are allocated to near-term guidance of traditional industries in upgrading; 60% are allocated to medium-term development in five major nanotech fields; and the other 20% is for investigative research into truly cutting-edge, completely new areas of nanotechnology. This cutting-edge R&D can also connect up with the academic excellence program led by Wu Maw-kuen, director of the Academia Sinica's Institute of Physics.
Q: Nanotechnology requires a great investment of resources. Won't industrial companies find it difficult to access sufficient human and financial resources?
A: Some people say that the development of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan 15 years ago was mainly driven by the return of academics from abroad. Today the reserve of qualified people overseas is far smaller, and this is a cause for concern. But in fact, after all these years of effort, Taiwan is now a world leader in high-tech production technology, and nanotechnology is a kind of production technology. So we needn't underestimate ourselves, and we should set to work training our own personnel.
As for funds, some people also believe that investment in new technologies should be led by far-sighted venture capitalists, as was the case with Internet technology over the past decade. But from the figures I quoted a moment ago we can infer that most of the first US$1 trillion of production value in nanotechnology will come not from new startup companies, but from existing companies in various industries. The nanotech applications coming onstream in the initial phase are merely changes of materials, and they need to be integrated with manufacturers' existing process expertise. That's not something new companies can do in a single step. As for cutting-edge ideas that may not lead to commercial products for at least 15 years, they may be very interesting, but they are also extremely risky, and there is no need for us to invest heavily in them at this time.
Q: Who are Taiwan's future competitors? Do you feel yourself under a lot of pressure?
A: In the nanotechnology field our biggest future competitors will be South Korea and Japan, because the production capabilities of their high-tech industries have been advancing steadily, unlike the US and Europe which have basically bowed out of many areas of manufacturing. Mainland China is very strong in basic nanotech research, and they can find many areas for application and development by having lots of people working in many different fields. But their foundations for industrial application and commercialization are very shallow, so in the near term they are no still no match for Taiwan.
As for myself, although I bear a heavy responsibility I don't feel under too much pressure, because Taiwan really does have what it takes to develop nanotechnology, and our progress has been very rapid. There are many nanotech products that only a year ago we merely heard someone was making overseas, which we can now produce ourselves.
Interestingly, perhaps because it is a new field with free scope for creativity, going into nanotechnology research seems to make our R&D personnel cleverer. I'm sure people in industry will have the same experience.
It's no exaggeration to say that nanotechnology is the biggest thing for Taiwan since the development of the semiconductor industry, and I sincerely hope that it can be as successful as semiconductors. But I want to remind everyone that nanotechnology is a type of manufacturing technology, and even if you produce like a demon, it will only earn profits for the manufacturing sector, which accounts for just 26% of our GDP. If our service industries remain at a third-world level, then even if we have the most advanced manufacturing industry in the world it won't do us any good.
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ITRI executive vice president Yang Jih-chang bears the heavy responsibility of leading the commercialization of nanotechnology in Taiwan. But he is full of confidence, for the ROC is one of the countries best placed to develop nanotech applications. (photo by Jimmy Lin)
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The industry-focused National Nanotechnology Program
Industrial applications program
14,081,956 ( 60.8% )
Core facilities program
3,768,942 ( 16.3% )
Personnel
development program
108,000 ( 0.5% )
Program office
Academic excellence program
4,899,500 ( 21.1% )
Units: NT$1000
Note: Phase I of the program runs from 2002 to 2005, and Phase II from 2004 to 2008. Funding levels for Phase II are projected.
Total 23,153,398 (100%)
Source: ITRI
Graphic: Wei Chin-hua
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Five priority nanotech industries
Micro-electromechanical
systems
Miniature fuel cells
New-generation displays
Nanoscale laser light sources
High-density data storage media
Graphic: Wei Chin-hua
