Running through everything like a thread has been President Ma's powerful will. Having gone through a period of confusion and a rapid decline in public opinion polls after first taking office, recently public approval ratings have stopped falling and the stock market has continued to rise. Seeing the robust vitality displayed by the government in times of difficulty, even if the economic freeze is far from over, citizens should feel an optimistic sense of confidence.

Objectively speaking, President Ma came into office as a leader with every hope for success: a large mandate (defeating the outgoing DPP with a huge 58.45% of the vote) and control of the Legislative Yuan and local governments by his party (the KMT), thus giving him the advantage of full capability of seeing his policies put into action. On the other hand, shocks from the external environment have also made him one of the unluckiest presidents in ROC history.

May 20 a year ago: Prices were rising sharply around the world and, less than ten days in office, the new administration had to handle the thorny problem of the previous administration's "price freeze." When the new government suddenly moved forward the previously announced timing of gas and electricity price rises, it was roundly criticized, and public approval ratings took a beating.

Next came the financial crisis in the US, and the world economy went into free fall. The new government had to play the role of fireman. On the one hand it moved to rapidly implement the new policies-settled upon well before the financial tsunami hit-of relaxing previous restrictions on trade, travel, and economic ties with the mainland (including the "three big links"). At the same time it had to direct energies toward emergency measures to stimulate the economy and help the unemployed.

In the last quarter of 2008, Taiwan-structurally an export-oriented economy-had its worst economic performance ever, shrinking by 8.36%. The unemployment rate also has reached new highs (5.81% in March of 2009). Finally, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics estimates that the economy will shrink by 2.97% in 2009, likewise the worst performance in history.

Yet despite rigorous external conditions, Taiwan's political and economic situation, as compared to Japan (three prime ministers in three years) and South Korea (seen for a while as becoming "Asia's Iceland"), has been quite stable. And although the Ma government's public approval ratings remain low (about 32.8% according to a late-April poll by Global Views Monthly magazine), Taiwan's stock market index rose from a low of 4242 in mid-January to around 6000 in mid-April, indicating that market confidence is stabilizing.

Wang Jiann-chyuan, vice president of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, quotes comments by Christina Liu, chief economic advisor at Daiwa Institute of Research, to the effect that the two main reasons for the low public approval ratings of the Ma administration have been its "underestimating the impact of the global financial tsunami" and "overestimating the economic benefits of relaxing restrictions on cross-strait ties." If you analyze the details, Wang says, the government is not doing badly at all. But campaign slogans like "6-3-3" (6% annual economic growth, US$30,000 per-capita income, and 3% unemployment) and "immediate turnaround" raised hopes too high, so that people find it all the harder to accept the gap between promise and reality.

As for dealing with the impact of the global financial tsunami, first Premier Liu Chao-shiuan declared that "all deposits would be guaranteed 100%," thus forestalling a potential run on the banks. Then policies like the "three stands" (the government stands behind banks, the banks stand behind firms, and firms stand behind workers) and the issuing of consumer vouchers sent clear signals and had timely effects. The vouchers in particular-over 90% of which were snatched up on the first day available-allowed people to have a much more enjoyable Lunar New Year holiday, and helped the Ma administration score higher grades for its performance.

Japanese scholar Makoto Sakurai, in a recent lecture in Taiwan, lamented that while Japan began considering consumer vouchers earlier than Taiwan, it took less than three months in Taiwan from initial proposal to passage of the law to issuance of the vouchers to happy consumer faces. In Japan, on the other hand, because of stiff opposition in the legislature, the replacement of the prime minister, and other factors, the vouchers were only issued in April 2009.

On cross-strait policy, Wang Jiann-chyuan comments that there is a three- to six-month lag in any policy from implementation to effects. "This is especially the case with mainland China. In fact, because of their top-down policy structure, it takes even longer to get results."

Wang takes the opening of Taiwan to mainland tourists as a case in point. To ensure everything would go smoothly, the mainland's approach was "first trial balloons, then assessment, then expansion of trial balloons, and then expanded assessment." During this waiting period, provincial and municipal level organs did not dare to move, fearing that they would misjudge the political winds and get in trouble for acting precipitously. It was for this reason that the Ma government had to endure ridicule over the failure of mainland tourists to come in the expected numbers right away.

Nevertheless, once the attitude of the CPC Central Committee was clarified, "complete openness" proved startlingly effective. When an Amway group came to Taiwan on March 16, the number of mainland tourists arriving in a single day hit the target of 3000 for the first time. Following the encouraging remarks by mainland Chinese premier Wen Jiabao-"I'd like to visit Taiwan even if I'd have to crawl there"-the number of mainland visitors grew rapidly, and the daily limit was raised to 7200. But after a fatal accident, and in view of a shortage of resources such as tour buses, this cap was again adjusted downward for fear of a hasty approach doing harm to Taiwan tourism's brand image.

In other words, when the benefits of mainland tourism to Taiwan are ripe, many economic sectors will benefit. Increased cross-strait exchanges will no longer be seen as "the KMT filling the pockets of big Taiwanese corporations," and narrow populist reactions will rapidly dissipate. When in mid-April the three vice-chairmen of the mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) came to Taiwan to prepare the ground for the third Chiang-Chen meeting, to be held at the end of April in Nanjing, the government deployed a substantial police presence to ensure their safety, but in fact throughout their visit there was no repeat of the violent and emotional protests that met ARATS chairman Chen Yunlin when he came to Taiwan.

As for the government's overall modus operandi, Wang Jiann-chyuan says both President Ma and Premier Liu are the type of political figures who focus on stabilizing long-term foundations, but perhaps are not good at using language that connects to people on an emotional level, or at packaging their words in grand rhetoric, so that it is hard for them to win plaudits in the short run.

However, Wang argues that, compared to the "stagnation" of Taiwan's economy over the past eight years, this year Taiwan has really "gotten moving," with all sorts of new ideas being put forward. "With change comes opportunity, with change comes progress."

What about the question of whether the Ma government should take precautions against mainland China promoting reunification through increased exchanges and links? Wang avers that the mainland certainly has this intention, whereas Taiwan's goal is merely to "take advantage of what the mainland has to offer to increase Taiwan's capabilities and enter international society." So long as Taiwan continues to deepen democratization and raise economic competitiveness, everything else can be done by going with the flow, so there is no need to set ourselves too many restrictions.

Some scholars point out that over the past year the Ma government has adopted all kinds of policies to expand domestic demand and stimulate the economy while also rapidly cutting taxes across the board, resulting in a burgeoning deficit. The national debt currently stands at 37.9% of GDP (not including the "hidden" debts of state-owned enterprises and various funds). As a result Taiwan's credit rating has been downgraded by the international rating agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor's. Even as the Ma administration reduces taxes to stimulate investment and encourage asset repatriation, they should tell people to prepare themselves psychologically-tax cuts and relief-type welfare benefits are not permanent. When the economy takes a turn for the better, tax rates may have to be reevaluated.

Wang Jiann-chyuan also suggests the Ma administration should strengthen management and evaluation. Any new policy must be carefully explained to the public when introduced, and its effects subsequently analyzed. Only when people have accepted that the measure is correct should the next policy be initiated. Don't try to do too much too fast, he advises, or people will be overwhelmed and won't be able to adjust.

With "first-year exams"-year-end elections for city mayors and county executives-coming up soon, the new government still faces difficult challenges. But as President Ma has said, the general direction of policy is correct-it simply needs to be well implemented step by step, and Taiwan will certainly emerge from its current economic doldrums and move toward a new future.

Twelve years ago, Ma Ying-jeou, a "mainlander" by birth, discovered that he, like the Ma clan of Miaoli County, is a descendant of the Eastern Han dynasty general Ma Yuan. Since then he has come to the Ma Family Village in Miaoli every Lunar New Year to pay his respects to his ancestors. When he returned again in his first Lunar New Year since becoming president, the local residents gave him an especially resounding welcome.