Broken Dreams: A Sea Change in Relations with South Africa

At 10 p.m. Taipei time on 27 November, President Nelson Mandela of the Republic of South Africa announced at a press conference in his official residence in Johannesburg that his country would terminate its diplomatic relations with the Republic of China on 31 December 1997, and would establish relations with the People's Republic of China on 1 January 1998.

Mr. Mandela explained his government's position by saying that South Africa is now an important participant in the Organization of African Unity, the non-aligned movement and the United Nations, and that as such, "a permanent continuation of diplomatic recognition of the Republic of China on Taiwan is inconsistent with South Africa's role in international affairs."

But in his speech he stated that relations with the ROC would be downgraded gradually, to ensure a smooth transition. He also specially praised Taiwan's contribution to South Africa's economy and democratic transformation, and expressed the hope that after the break in diplomatic ties, South Africa could continue to maintain its other relations with the Republic of China. He stressed that South Africa's guiding principle with regard to the Greater China region had always been the desire to maintain relations simultaneously with both Beijing and the ROC, and therefore, although it would no longer be able to maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan, everything else would remain unchanged.

Faced with this crisis, on the day of Mr. Mandela's announcement officials at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs met all night to discuss the ROC's response. When Premier Lien Chan was informed he conferred with his minister with a stern expression, but was not willing to comment publicly. A staff member at the Office of the President said regretfully that over the last few years, high-ranking ROC officials had visited South Africa very frequently, making an effort to maintain the relationship with our largest diplomatic partner, and Vice-Premier Hsu Li-te and Minister of National Defense Chiang Chung-ling had visited South Africa only very recently. Before President Man-dela's announcement the ROC had been given very little warning, so we now had to start the long process of defining our response, and to review the future direction of our substantive bilateral relations. President Lee Teng-hui had been informed of the situation immediately.

At a press conference the following morning, Minister of Foreign Affairs John H. Chang stated that the ROC would conduct a complete review of all its aid programs towards South Africa, and that his visit to South Africa, originally planned for January next year, would be brought forward. He also urged South Africa to use the grace period it has set before severing diplomatic ties to reconsider its decision, and not to overlook the importance of our bilateral relations, nor to underestimate the importance of the ROC. However, Council for Economic Planning and Development Chairman Chiang Ping-kun said with regret that South Africa's sudden declaration of its intention to end diplomatic ties would make it very difficult in future for the ROC government to encourage private enterprise to invest in South Africa, so that the various investment and technical assistance projects promised by Vice-Premier Hsu on his visit to South Africa in September, and the plan to coordinate private-sector investments, might all have to be called off. This would be a severe blow to South Africa's economic revitalization.

The ROC's relations with South Africa have long been very close, especially in the economic sphere. ROC business people have been very eager to migrate there and to invest by setting up businesses and factories. Within the last year, the ROC government even decided that ROC enterprises including the Chinese Petroleum Corporation, Tuntex and Kwang Hua Securites would make a joint investment in the petrochemical and textiles industries in South Africa valued at US$3.5 billion. It had also planned to reinstate the regular ministerial meetings between the South African and ROC governments in the spring of next year, after a lapse of two years. The impending downgrading of relations is sure to affect both private and official investment plans.

For many years Beijing supported the anti-apartheid movement and groups opposed to the former white regime, such as the African National Congress and the South African Communist Party, and this support played a large part in building their lasting friendship with the present Mandela government. In 1990, when Nelson Mandela was released from prison, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China sent him a letter of congratulation and an invitation, and in 1992 Mr. Mandela visited Beijing. After he was elected president of South Africa in May 1994, the mainland believed the time was ripe to establish diplomatic relations with South Africa, but the Mandela government again and again expressed the hope that it could maintain friendship both with its "old friends" and with its "new friends." Not only did President Mandela give a warm welcome to ROC President Lee Teng-hui when the latter visited South Africa in April 1994, but during visits to Japan and South Korea last year he also stressed repeatedly that he hoped to maintain friendly relations with both Taipei and Beijing. However, Beijing simply reiterated its position that it wished to establish diplomatic relations, but was opposed to South Africa's maintaining diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

In November of last year, President Mandela stated at a press conference in Johannesburg that South Africa wished to established diplomatic relations with Beijing, but that he did not have the "moral courage" to break off relations with Taiwan. Thus South Africa's announcement, coming a year later, is really no surprise. But experts in international affairs believe the choice of the end of 1997 as the time for the break is to some extent connected with the return of Hong Kong to Chinese rule in 1997. This is because Hong Kong is a major port through which South Africa conducts its trade with Southeast Asia, and if South Africa does not have diplomatic ties with Beijing it will not be able to maintain a consulate in Hong Kong after 1997. This problem will be faced by many countries which recognize the ROC. For instance, Panama, and the PRC recently established liaison offices in each other's countries, and Panama stressed that after 1997 its consular office in Hong Kong would be become a trade office. This pragmatic approach may be the model for the future presence in Hong Kong of the countries which maintain diplomatic ties with Taipei.

The loss of a major diplomatic partner is a blow to the ROC's hopes for "dual recognition," and also reveals the cruel and unsentimental nature of international politics. Legislators from the ruling and opposition parties have called for people at all levels in ROC society to pull together and work to maintain and develop substantive relations with South Africa. Foreign affairs minister John Chang also said that henceforth he will work even more actively to develop the ROC's international room for maneuver, and not allow this setback to make him pessimistic. He was considering travelling to South Africa next week to make representations to President Mandela in person, to try to persuade him to maintain relations at a level including a consulate-general. Academics warned that the effectiveness of economic aid in developing international relations has its limits. What is needed is to seek a breakthrough in deadlocked cross-strait relations, rather than engaging in a zero-sum diplomatic game. Premier Lien Chan however stressed that by redoubling its efforts to hamstring the ROC internationally Beijing showed scant regard for the legitimate rights of the people of the Taiwan Area, and that its actions were conducive neither to cross-strait relations nor to national reunification. Future reunification could only be built on a foundation of mutual respect, and the ROC would continue to develop its international room for maneuver.