August 14th marked the first time Lien Chan and James Soong crossed swords since announcing their participation in the presidential election. Both chose to hold evening rallies in Taipei County, each of which attracted crowds numbering in the tens of thousands. The opposing forces at this initial skirmish appeared to be evenly matched, "banner for banner and drum for drum."

Lien Chan held his "Join (Lien) with the hearts and minds of the people, and fight (Chan) to win the future" rally in Hsinchuang's Chinshui Park. He pledged himself to "create a great Taiwan and construct a great Taipei," saying his desire was to create a fair and just Taiwan where people come first.

James Soong's "Working together for Taiwan, Go Soong!" rally in Yungho's Chung Cheng Park, was his first opportunity to present his national polices. Speaking in Taiwanese, Hakka and various aboriginal languages, he announced his desire to be a "people's president for the New Taiwanese people."

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential nominee Chen Shui-bian, pointed out that the DPP has no need to enter the fray at this stage, as the posturing and muscle flexing between Lien Chan and James Soong merely represent a power struggle within the KMT. The situation of the inter-party battle will become more apparent later in the election campaign.

Hsu Hsin-liang, former chairman of the DPP and the first to declare his candidacy for the 2000 presidential election, expressed disappointment at Lien and Soong's rallies. He suggested that this decades-old style of Taiwanese electioneering, where candidates waste tremendous resources, is the method of yesterday's men, unsuited to leading Taiwan into the new millennium.

After continually placing third in public opinion surveys, Lien Chan's level of support shot upwards following the announcement of his candidacy. According to a poll carried out by the Trendgo Survey Research Center on the day of his announcement, Lien's level of support had already risen to 29.6%, taking him to first place. James Soong was in second place with 27.6% support, Chen Shui-bian had 17.7% and Hsu Hsin-liang had only 0.4%.

A survey carried out by TVBS television after Lien and Soong's Taipei County rallies showed James Soong back in the lead with 34%. Lien Chan had slipped back to second place with 25%, while Chen Shui-bian's support had held steady at 17%, leaving him in third place.

Although the timing and results of these surveys are not identical, increased support for Lien Chan is a common denominator of them all.

Liang Te-hsin, Director of the Chinese Association for Public Opinion Research, points out that the main reason for such change is the flow of KMT support back to Lien Chan.

Professor Pao Tsung-her of the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University argues that the causes underlying the rise in poll numbers for Lien Chan are, as yet, unclear. From an analysis of the contents of Lien Chan's statement in announcing his candidacy, he portrays himself as liberal on matters ranging from KMT internal affairs to cross-strait problems. This liberal stance has a definite allure for the public. Another possible reason behind his surge in opinion polls could be that after announcing his candidacy, the public started to equate Lien Chan with the KMT.

While an increase in popular support is undoubtedly pleasant, a fall in the opinion polls should not necessarily be the cause of serious worry, as the election remains far off and further changes are very unpredictable. This first showdown between Lien and Soong was little more than a curtain-raiser.

On August 18th, alternative culture critique Li Ao, whose statements frequently raise eyebrows, made the sudden and startling announcement that he will be representing the New Party as its presidential candidate. Li Ao has made a number of interesting statements since joining the fray on behalf of the New Party, such as "I hope that supporters of James Soong and Hsu Hsin-liang will not desert them," and "I welcome the voters of Lien Chen and Chen Shui-bian to support my candidacy." The effect of these comments on the larger battle will be an interesting topic of conversation worthy of continued observation.

Cheng Pang-chen, Chairman of the Taiwan Independence Party, announced on August 22nd that he will also be running for the presidency on the plank of abolishing the Republic of China and establishing a Republic of Taiwan. With this development, the election looks set to hot up even more.

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Lien Chan formally announces his bid for the presidency in the year 2000. (photo by Wang Ying-hao)