"On a trip back home to Taiwan several years ago, I found fortune telling all the rage among the literary and artistic community, especially in entertainment circles where pop stars would squander a small fortune to guarantee good luck. Back in the States, too, I saw many Taiwan compatriots in 'Little Taipei' almost equally crazy about divination. . . ." Thus painter Wang Fu-tung, a U.S. resident, writes with exasperation in an article.

A study by Academia Sinica's Institute of Ethnology into religious trends in Taiwan found that over half of all Taiwanese adults have had their fortunes cast, including the highly educated.

In a twentieth century dominated by scientific progress, why is it that the ancient craft of divination, long associated with superstition, is not only still with us but flourishing more than ever?

New Environment Foundation founder Prof. Ch'ai Sung-lin, who has written on Taiwan folk beliefs, maintains the popularity of divination reflects modern man's inner uncertainty and helplessness in the face of rapid social changes and confused values. Apparent social injustices, such as businessmen profiting by exploiting legal loopholes, or lackluster politicians getting to the top, have led people to conclude that success depends more on good luck than personal effort. This explains why so many people resort to casting fortunes and interpreting horoscopes.

Fair enough, but it cannot be denied that the vast majority of Chinese believe that somewhere an "invisible hand" determines everything.

After all, we all start off in nothing but our birthday suit, but everyone has their own social standing and personal attributes. Those lucky enough to be born into a family of wealth and influence more often than not end up with a fine education, an air of distinction, an enviable marriage, and the world is their oyster. . . . When this happens, other people seek consolation by saying "he must have been born with an ideal set of Eight Characters." or "his fate was better than ours." And modern science has highlighted the fact that innate factors (inherited genes, childhood environment) sometimes outweigh our own efforts in determining our success in life.

Of course it doesn't take a fortune teller to predict that offspring of wealthy parents will do well, and those of humbler station start off at a disadvantage. But some people are constantly dogged with misfortune through no fault of their own, while others find that everything falls perfectly into place. . . . Buddhism ascribes life's unpredictable ups and downs to "the cause & effect of past, present & future." But for the ancient Chinese, bereft of such concepts as "cause & effect" or "karma," other ways had to be found of resolving their inner perplexity.

"Chinese people referred to the concept of fate very early on," explains columnist Yeh Man, herself an expert on divination. His lifetime strivings unrecognized by the world, Confucius himself was compelled to expostulate: "One cannot become a truly cultivated man without knowing fate."

In his book Fortune and Fate, Professor Wang Pang-hsiung of National Central University's Chinese Literature Department points out that Confucius's dictum about "knowing fate" is an admission that heaven's decree is unavoidable and nothing can be attained by force. Another great philosopher, Chuangtzu, admonished people to "be content with fate," in other words "we must realize there are certain things we can do nothing about and accept them as fate." As Wang Pang-hsiung says, Chuang-tzu thought human existence has an ineluctable quality we just have to put up with. We should accept all that fate brings without trying to twist things around.

In contrast to Confucius's insight and Chuang-tzu's negativism, Mencius and Hsun-tzu are less willing to "recognize fate."

In his concept of "erecting one's fate" Mencius recognizes that life is circumscribed by certain parameters, but nevertheless these can serve to enhance one's personal values. Some people, for example, die an unremarkable death, while others choose to die for a great ideal; this is "erecting one's fate."

Hsun-tzu, likewise a Confucian apologist, puts forward the idea of "directing fate." He believed that man is naturally born without values, but through education in the Rites and Music a man's life acquires beauty, goodness and meaning; this is "directing fate."

However you think about "fate," recognition of the concept of "heaven's fate" is a deep-rooted Chinese tradition. Given that "heaven's fate" operates in some mysterious way, what more natural than to turn to divination in search of an answer to life's uncertainties? From the oracle bone divination, star-gazing and choosing auspicious days of the ancient Shang period, together with later developments such as divination by the Eight Cyclical Characters, physiognomy, astrology and spirit writing, the Chinese nation is virtually unrivalled in the world in terms of the proliferation, rigor and complexity of its fortune telling methods.

But through this welter of divination methods runs a single principle, the "malignant/benign" polarity, i.e. "that which overcomes" and "that which propagates."

These concepts were evolved from the I-ching or Classic of Changes, venerated by Confucian commentators as the definitive key to the operations of the Way of Heaven. Ethnologist Li I-yuan of Academia Sinica points out that the Confucian advocacy of the Middle Way makes mankind's "harmony" and "equilibrium" with the cosmos and nature a supreme value.

As Li I-yuan sees it, to the traditional Chinese mind there was a constantly advancing time flux in the cosmos which involved the sun, moon and stars as well as the earthly seasons and the cycle of the Five Elements (metal, wood, water, fire, earth). In combination these factors naturally exercised enormous influence over a person's whole life; an individual's moment in time was fixed by reference to the "universal flux", and if this was timed just right his whole life would run smoothly, whereas if it conflicted with the "universal flux" he was headed for trouble.

The most important thing about an individual's lifespan, and one fixed by heaven above, is his birth horoscope, in other words the particular combination of Heavenly Stems and Earthly Branches that define the year, month, day and hour of birth and so yield a person's Eight Cyclical Characters.

These characters spell out a person's "fate," which is immutable and belongs to the fixed point when the individual first impinged upon the "universal flux." "This is how the Chinese concept of 'recognizing one's fate' evolved," says Li I-yuan.

But time of birth is not the only factor influencing the course of a person's life; other things ranging from marriage and parents' decease to moving house or even opening up a business all necessarily impinge upon time, and these fall within the scope of "chance." Fate is immutable, but chance is variable. By choosing an auspicious day or hour the course of a person's life can be coordinated with the cosmos, to that person's benefit. (Please refer to our article "An ABC of Chinese Divination.")

The theory of the "malignant/benign polarity" might sound reasonable enough, and the various traditional Chinese occult sciences based on it, such as geomancy (examining this polarity in spatial terms) or Chinese medicine's concern with regulating cold and heat, may be backed by crystal clear logical argument. But ultimately one comes up against a large problem: granted that fortune telling requires study and does not simply mean using the imagination to draw castles in the air, yet no matter how fascinating the fortune teller's analysis of your fate, if there's nothing to it isn't it just a waste of effort?

Is there really anything to divination? Or to put it another way, can a person's "fate" really be "worked out"?

Many of those involved think fortune telling reflects findings based on centuries of experience. For example, it might have been found that persons born at a certain time or a certain day tended to be volatile, aggressive, and showed a desire to lead; in other words, they belonged to the element "fire." Other experience might have shown that "fiery" natured people were born in the hot south, shared the qualities of "fire" and found it easier to develop. . . . Based on experience rather than logical reason, such predictions were refined or gained credence purely through the efforts of fortune tellers themselves.

Such "lessons of experience" were not unique to the Chinese, they were current in the West as well. The Greeks classified people on the basis of the four humors of blood, phlegm, choler and melancholy; and in contrast to the Eight Cyclical Characters of the Chinese, Western astrologers based their horoscopes on the twelve planetary "months'' of the zodiac.

Novelist Chou Fei-li, a skeptic where divination is concerned, wittily notes that he was born under the Chinese year of the Rat and the Western sign of Leo. According to Chinese astrology he is "as timid as a mouse, with many doubts and highly adaptable," while according to the Western theory he has the "enthusiasm, courage and optimism" proper to the "king of beasts." This is bewildering enough, but seriously, most likely he's neither a rat or a lion!

The Eight Cyclical Characters defining the year, month, day and hour of birth yield a total of 20,320 possible permutations. In other words, in China's 1 billion population alone there must be an average of 50,000 people sharing any given permutation. But will all these 50,000 "companions in fate" born in the same year, month, day and hour, really share an identical fortune? And can it be that victims of disasters, such as a plane crash or volcanic eruption, were all fated to die at that very moment?

Such doubts have existed since antiquity, and the flawed explanations astrologers provide have failed to allay them. The Eight Characters legend of Chu Yuan-chang, the Ming dynasty's founding emperor Ming T'ai-tsu, is one example.

It is said that when Chu Yuan-chang took the throne he feared he might be challenged by someone else who shared his "emperor's fate" and secretly ordered a search to be made for anyone with the same Eight Cyclical Characters as himself. This search turned up a monk, a beggar and a common citizen. When the emperor asked astrologer Liu Po-wen to account for this circumstance, he was at a loss for words.

Interestingly, this story takes a different twist in the hands of the astrologers. In their version, the emperor's search turns up a certain "rustic from south of the Yangtze" (perhaps the "common citizen" mentioned above?) whom Chu Yuan-chang at first wanted to put to death. But when the emperor enquired how he made his living, the old man replied: "I keep 13 beehives at home by which I make enough to live." At this the emperor guffawed: "I too have 13 'beehives' in my Provincial Administration Commissioners; so it seems we do share the same fate!" Thereupon he rewarded the rustic gentleman generously and sent him back to his home.

This story is a favorite with fortune tellers because it seems to be able to explain that age-old question: two people with the same horoscope may end up with different stations in life due to the different experiences they have encountered, yet on closer examination their fates in some ways take on very similar outlines.

Such a self-serving argument cannot but raise a smile. But we haven't finished yet; there's still another "edition" of the Ming emperor's story!

According to the unofficial histories, Chu Yuan-chang's mother was a servant in a wealthy household. By chance the master's son was born at the very same moment as Chu Yuan-chang, but these two "companions in fate" ended up very differently--Chu Yuan-chang rose to be emperor, while the master's son proved a complete failure in life.

One ingenious commentator offers the following "hypothesis." Chu Yuan-chang was born in the year of the Rat, and since his family was poor he was born in a room without a lamp; this ideally suited his "rat" nature, which is why his life was so successful. The master's son was born in a large, well-illuminated hall; this conflicted with his "rat" nature, scuttling his chances of success in life.

Skeptic Chou Fei-li dishes that argument as follows: If someone's fate can be ruined by a tiny lamplight, it must be fearfully fragile! What's the point of calculating a fate of that kind?

In Chinese geomancy, casting your fate has always been a folk belief that "skeptics scorn at will, but believers cling to without a doubt." What angle should we view it from today?

Fortune teller Hsieh Pai-jung, a pupil of distinguished early Republican period astrologer Wei Ch'ien-li, thinks that in today's information age the Eight Cyclical Characters provide a useful point of reference for planning out one's life.

The Chinese say, "knowing the best time is the key to success." Life has its ups and downs, and there will always be more lucky phases. "These lucky moments may be insignificant comparatively speaking, but as far as you're concerned they're the best times of your life. At times like these, if you can seize the moment and not waste time, energy or opportunities, of course you may achieve much," emphasizes author Yeh Man.

Since divination is simply based on a long accumulation of Chinese experience, it is naturally no more accurate than other types of "speaking from experience."

Divination expert and distinguished diplomat Wang Kung-chi, reputed for his uncanny knack with horoscopes, estimates his own rate of accuracy at around 60 percent; another celebrated contemporary astrologer, Fei-yun Shan-jen, reckons that 70-80 percent credibility is pretty good. He likens it to a businessman's forecasts of company prospects; 100% accuracy can't be expected, but you don't discount its value altogether.

Hsieh Pai-jung puts forward the example of someone whose Eight Cyclical Characters indicate a preponderance of fire combined with metal, suggesting good prospects for wealth. The horoscope may indicate wealth is in the cards, but it's impossible for the astrologer to be specific. A person's future earnings may involve several other factors: his current resources, and how intelligent or how diligent he may be. Yet Hsieh believes that merely by indicating good prospects for wealth the astrologer has already provided "strong" data, one can hardly ask for more.

Superficially, astrologers seem to have an extra "tool" available for observing life, but does this put them at an advantage in ensuring a better fate for themselves? The answer would seem to be no.

Astrology expert Wang Ming-hsiung, head of planning at the Sino-American Academic Exchange Foundation, notes that astrologers are mere mortals too, and have their own immutable Eight Cyclical Characters and their own ineluctable fate. No matter what station in life they enjoy, nor how moral their conduct, they can only achieve what is possible within the parameters of their fate, which cannot be transcended.

Wang Ming-hsiung takes himself as an example. He believes that astrologers "will be less likely to act on impulse due to their wide experience of how circumstances may change." Wang Pang-hsiung also thinks astrology enthusiasts "gradually lose self-confidence the more they hesitate and the more they take future prospects into account before they act." As a result of constant vacillation, indecisiveness and worrying about the future, they lose the capacity to act in a straightforward and natural manner. There is a saying: "The more you cast your fortune, the more you undermine it." To some extent this may well be true of astrologers as well as of those who consult them!

What most concerns the average divination client is not so much whether his fortune is good or bad, but what to do about it. Since your Eight Cyclical Characters are fixed and your fate is sealed at birth, isn't the popular saying "fate is self-made, fortune is soul-forged" simply a way of providing encouragement and consolation? And does a fate that can be altered really count as being our "fate"?

There are many different approaches to answering this age-old poser.

Moralists refer to the Buddhist concept of cause & effect, urging people to change their fate through good deeds. Common folk belief falls back on a variety of practices, such as geomancy and choosing lucky days, to ensure that harm is avoided. More traditional astrologers pursue a different line of reasoning.

Wang Ming-hsiung concedes that doing good deeds or resorting to lucky practices may indeed alter certain special circumstances in a person's life; but they cannot change the basic parameters of his fate. In other words, "fate's numbers" can easily be changed, but "fate's nature" cannot. Thus "fate's numbers"--commonly meaning a person's span of years or official rank--may be changed through improved conduct. But if your Eight Cyclical Characters read "water preponderant: wood floating," indicating a naturally unsettled personality, then you are unlikely to become a solid, well-established farmer; on the other hand, if your horoscope reads "earth preponderant: water deficient," indicating sluggish humors, then you are none too likely to turn into a lively, outgoing person or a risk-taking traveller.

Whether "fate" can be calculated or changed may be uncertain, but life offers an alternative.

The T'ang dynasty astrologer Li Hsu-chung, credited with first incorporating the hour of birth and thus establishing the Eight Cyclical Characters divination system, makes the following philosophical statement in his work Li Hsu-chung Ming-shu: "For those who step outside the Five Elements, life and death is in their own hands." In other words, if a person does not accept the dictates of the Five Elements system, he will not be subject to fate's predestination.

Such an outlook on life transcends the power of astrology. But Wang Ming-hsiung suggests another view; he considers that horoscopes can only predict "surface phenomena" at the most, they cannot penetrate to the true essence of a person's life.

For instance, an astrologer may predict that someone's life will abound in success, wealth and prosperity, but he cannot divine whether these will bring that person happiness. Equally, in earlier times when marriage was left to a match-maker, an astrologer might identify a perfect match on the basis of complementary horoscopes favoring marriage, but he could not guarantee that the couple would actually love one another. Wealth doesn't equal happiness; nor complementarity, love. For many contemporary people who rate inner contentment more highly than outward appearances, the shortcomings of divination may involve more than the question of accuracy.

There are other respects in which times have changed and a modern reinterpretation of divination is required.

The eminent early Republican astrologer Wei Ch'ien-li offered numerous new interpretations of the Eight Cyclical Characters. He believed that in modern times we assess divination by standards very different from those of the past because circumstances have changed so much.

In agrarian society, for example, people generally longed for a calm and settled life; the last thing they wanted was to abandon hearth and home to embark on a peripatetic existence. Astrology texts accordingly tend to describe an unfavorable fate in terms of an unsettled, lonely and independent life, and people such as actors or musicians, who had to keep traveling from one venue to another, tended to fall into this category. But today's values have changed. Greater mobility is now viewed as a way of breaking out of the rut and achieving self-realization, while living at home in the bosom of your family looks too much like tying a person down!

Wang Ming-hsiung also thinks that Chinese divination's scale of values is also in need of adjustment with the times where professional careers are concerned. A woman may have a horoscope that appears to mark her down as a perfectly ordinary housewife; but if she is well educated and is holding down a sought-after job in the mass media, for example, she may have more going for her than her horoscope would suggest.

These days top government officials are coming under ever greater pressure, and a job of this kind may no longer be as "fortunate" as it is described in terms of divination. In the past, everyone desired to have an "emperor's fate," but in today's democratic age the powers of rulers and presidents tend to be outweighed by their responsibilities; their lives are far less free and easy than ordinary people's!

As with discussions on religion or ghosts, it's difficult to reach any firm conclusions on the multifarious topic of divination. But it's a subject people can't help returning to. Perhaps in some inescapable or impenetrable set of circumstances, if the concept of "fate" can only help enrich man's understanding of the cosmos, society, or even of himself, then it still has some value!

[Picture Caption]

Life offers numerous possibilities; which is the one that matches your own fortune? (photo by Pu Hua-chih)

Casting a new born baby's horoscope was an important Chinese tradition. Now that caesarian sections are more common, debate has been stirred up over the accuracy of "artificial horoscopes." (photo from Sinorama files)

(Right) Although "marriages are made in heaven," it's still necessary to compare horoscopes beforehand to check that one partner's stars won't conflict with the other's. (photo from Sinorama files)

In former times women's fortunes were cast to see whether their "husband star" and "son star" were favorable, so marrying the ideal husband was the main thing. (photo from Sinorama files)

As the popular saying goes, "casting fortunes conjures doubts." What are these young people consulting the astrologer for?

Even the ancient art of vination cannot escape the influence of modern science, and "computer divination" is all the rage.

Many people are aware that the stars of the zodiac are associated with human character, lucky colors and lucky numbers, but they don't know that each symbolizes an important bodily organ.

Mankind can build skyscrapers and fly to the moon, but we still cannot escape the fated cycle of birth, age, sickness and death.

Western astrology is based on the solar calendar and is closely linked to plant growth.

Casting a new born baby's horoscope was an important Chinese tradition. Now that caesarian sections are more common, debate has been stirred up over the accuracy of "artificial horoscopes." （photo from Sinorama files）

（Right） Although "marriages are made in heaven," it's still necessary to compare horoscopes beforehand to check that one partner's stars won't conflict with the other's. （photo from Sinorama files）

In former times women's fortunes were cast to see whether their "husband star" and "son star" were favorable, so marrying the ideal husband was the main thing. （photo from Sinorama files）

Even the ancient art of vination cannot escape the influence of modern science, and "computer divination" is all the rage.

As the popular saying goes, "casting fortunes conjures doubts." What are these young people consulting the astrologer for?

Many people are aware that the stars of the zodiac are associated with human character, lucky colors and lucky numbers, but they don't know that each symbolizes an important bodily organ.

Mankind can build skyscrapers and fly to the moon, but we still cannot escape the fated cycle of birth, age, sickness and death.

Yin-Yang & the Five Elements, together with the cosmic cycle, may determine the growth and decay of plants, but with modern progress can nature still have such influence over man today? Perhaps astrologers are themselves deluded over this! （photo by Arthur Cheng）