Taking the "early harvest list" of included industries at face value, what has most caught Taiwanese eyes has been the reduction of tariffs-with 539 different tariffs on Taiwanese products exported to China being reduced, as opposed to only 267 for Chinese products coming into Taiwan, there is certainly a short-term benefit to be had for Taiwan. In dollar terms, Taiwanese products from the early harvest list bound for China in 2009 were valued at US$13.84 billion, 16.1% of Taiwan's exports, while Chinese exports to Taiwan amounted to US$2.86 billion, 10.5% of Taiwan's imports. In allowing for such a discrepancy, the Chinese authorities have certainly made good on their promise that Taiwan would benefit from this agreement.
However, out of the myriad of products already being exported to China-as many as 6,685 different types-only 539 have been accounted for in the early harvest list, meaning that while some industries will benefit, others will be left unsatisfied.
For example, many in the media have asked why some of Taiwan's major strengths, such as optoelectronic display panels, machine tools, and polycarbonates, have not been included, while lesser industries like plastics and chemical products have been. Meanwhile, others have asked why so many powerful companies have had their industries included, and whether or not that is the result of heavy lobbying from financial powerhouses.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs has responded that in order to avoid further drawing out negotiations, initial talks covered only those issues that were most pressing and least controversial in order to get things moving quickly. They also stated that industrialists should not rush to judgment, as more serious negotiations are to follow.
Looking at the flat panel industry, in 2009 exports in this sector from Taiwan to China were valued at as much as US$11.56 billion-13.5% of Taiwan's exports to China. Hastily pushing through an agreement on such a significant export industry is unusual internationally. Moreover, over the past two years a constant stream of panel purchasing groups from China have come to Taiwan, and the industry is running at full capacity and earning tremendous profits; it being such a reliable earner, there would be little point in including this industry in the list.
Then there's the Ma administration's promise to look after small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), as well as traditional industries. They have fought to give these businesses priority, and over half of the early harvest list fits into these categories. Take, for instance, the aforementioned inclusion of plastics and chemicals-the majority of the producers of these are SMEs. In these industries, the combination of fierce competition and tiny profit margins has left them too weak to produce large amounts of exports. As a result, the elimination of tariffs on these industries will help them tremendously in expanding into the mainland market and creating greater business opportunities.
Each of the 539 entries has its own rationale, and both sides are getting some wins and some losses. However, goods trading aside, the ECFA will also have a far-reaching effect on cooperation between the two sides on intellectual property rights, finance, and industry, as well as cooperation in other significant matters. If the two can uphold their respective ends of the agreement, a more comprehensive and stronger Greater China market may be on the rise.
Of course, when Taiwan is seeking partners for cooperation, China will remain the best choice, but should not be the only choice. After the signing of the ECFA, President Ma announced plans to reach out to business around the world and to encourage investment in Taiwan from all corners of the globe. The much-wished-for next steps are free-trade agreements with the US, Japan, and ASEAN, which could create substantial new investment opportunities and help foster a new generation of rising businesses.
The signing of the ECFA is a symbolic first step toward Taiwan's breaking free of the shackles that have long weighed it down internationally, but how far and how well things progress will rely on the efforts of everyone in Taiwan.