Since July '95, China has carried out a series of missile tests and military exercises on the coast near Taiwan. These military exercises will probably intensify as 23 March '96 approaches, the day Taiwanese vote for their president. Although China's leaders do not expect President Lee to be defeated, through these military exercises they signal to the people in Taiwan they do not trust President Lee, that they believe he is paying lip-service to reunification while covertly seeking independence under the cover of expanding Taiwan's "international space."

China has taken great pains to give clear signals to the US that the Taiwan issue is of paramount importance, in order to avoid any misreading of its position. In the past few months the US has reaffirmed its one-China policy. This seems to imply that the US will not support moves towards an independent Taiwan.

US Senator Sam Nunn, an expert on military matters and former chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has said that Taiwan should not declare its independence, which would likely bring a Chinese military action. He also said: "It is crucial that the Chinese understand that if the Chinese use force, the US will not stand idly by and will surely respond."

Singapore's policy is to encourage both its friends, Taiwan and China, not to change the present status quo, however unsatisfactory. For their own interest, both sides should talk and negotiate seriously to resolve the present situation and agree on a set of markers to give Taiwan, for economic and cultural purposes, "international space." There will be agreement only if Taiwan satisfies China that this "international space" is within a one-China framework, and will not lead to independence.

After the election President Lee can help to dispel China's misgivings and reestablish stable relations by taking concrete steps which will show clearly that he means it when he says he wants eventual reunification. For example, one symbolic but significant gesture that Taiwan can make, without any real loss to itself, is to say that it is reconsidering its application to join the UN. The US has already stated that it will not support Taiwan's application. So very few countries will support it. In any case, even if the US supports Taiwan's application, China can and will veto it. In short, Taiwan will lose little by making this gesture.

Both sides must put aside past misunderstandings in order to have a fresh start. Regional stability and prosperity will suffer if there is armed conflict and the US were to get involved. After the election in Taiwan, China and Taiwan should negotiate at a very high level the terms for more economic, social and cultural international space within a one-China framework, that will ensure no creeping independence or splitting of Taiwan from China.

When agreement is reached it can be confirmed at the highest level. China's leaders should take President Lee's restated position that he wants reunification as the starting point for negotiations to draw up a road map for eventual reunification. It can start with a gradual closing of the gap in their economic, social and cultural conditions to prepare both sides for closer people-to-people cooperation and understanding.

Time and new realities will bring that about. Geography and history will work for one China. No outside power can forever guarantee that Taiwan can stay separate. Unless China breaks up, which is most unlikely, within three decades China will be a big industrial power. Taiwan need not be caught in a perpetual state of enmity and hostility with China. It is better to talk earlier than later and agree on a convergent course that will take both in the direction of gradual and eventual reunification, whether it is in a confederation or a federation, or "one country, two systems."

Both sides have said they want reunification, and China has reaffirmed that it seeks peaceful reunification. Therefore there is no basic contradiction. It is not as if Taiwan rejects reunification, or China wants to bring about reunification by force. Sincere and serious small adjustments by both can start off a process that will give another chance to resolve this situation.

China's leaders have referred to me as an old friend. I am an older friend of Taiwan. If either one is damaged, Singapore will suffer a loss. If both are damaged, Singapore's loss will be doubled. Singapore benefits when both prosper, when both cooperate and help each other prosper. China's threat to use force is one thing. The region has not reacted with alarm because regional countries understand what it is about. But actual use of force is another thing altogether. The countries of the region will not understand why China cannot be patient and resolve the matter peacefully, when using force will damage both China and Taiwan, and also hurt third parties, the countries of ASEAN and East Asia.

The use of force will set back a real chance China now has of becoming a modern and industrialized nation in 25 years. After suffering so patiently for two centuries, the Chinese people and their leaders can surely afford to be patient a little longer.