On May 20 of last year, President Chen celebrated the second anniversary of his inauguration by comforting the sick and elderly and playing with children in the pediatric ward of St. Mary's Hospital in Ilan. This coming May 20, the president plans to spend another day doing voluntary work, to show the new government's sincere determination to serve its master: the people.

Of course "new" may not be the most appropriate way to describe the government, because the Democratic Progressive Party has already been in power for more than 1000 days. Although the DPP has governed with considerable skill, many areas still need to be finessed, adjusted, and even confronted head-on.

As Chen Shui-bian noted in a speech to the DPP in June 2002, the regular replacement of the governing party is a process of deconstruction and reconstruction of the political system, society, and even cross-strait relations. Establishing a new political order requires not only courage and steadfastness but, more importantly, great patience and skill. With the new government came a new style of political leadership, new policies, and new ways of implementing them. This new national landscape has come as a shock to old-style bureaucrats who had grown accustomed to more than 50 years of KMT rule, and it has also shaken up ordinary citizens whose only goal was quietly to pass their days in the same way as before.

A second wave of democracy

Let us look back to May 20, 2000 when, after a hotly contested election, Chinese people experienced for the first time in their history the peaceful transfer of power from one political party to another. In his book The First Voyage of the New Century, Chen Shui-bian explained the real meaning of his election to the presidency: After the "first wave of Taiwanese democracy" was completed during the 12-year tenure of his predecessor President Lee Teng-hui, there was a constitutional transfer of power that marked the beginning of the "second wave of Taiwanese democracy." The DPP's historic task is to "consolidate democratic values and make democracy more meaningful," to help Taiwan go from formal to actual democracy, and to create a genuine civil society.

Democracy is a political system founded on majority rule. In order to break down prejudices and solidify political consensus, Chen Shui-bian has charted a "new middle course" and announced his "Four No's plus One" policy of cross-strait relations: That is to say, as long as the PRC refrains from making any military moves against Taiwan, there will be no declaration of independence, no change in the name of the country, no change in the Constitution to include the "two states" concept, no promotion of a referendum on the issue of reunification vs. independence, and no abolition of the National Reunification Council or the National Reunification Guidelines.

In the three years since the Four No's plus One policy was announced, small ripples have continuously affected cross-strait relations, but so far there have been no missile tests or saber rattling--a fact that has allowed those who tended to equate "DPP" with "Taiwan independence" and "war" to breathe a sigh of relief. Cross-strait exchanges have been intensified especially since the opening of the "small three links" (limited direct communication, transportation and trade) and the relaxation of restrictions on tourists and experts from the mainland visiting Taiwan.

But it's no secret that the key reason the two sides have been unable to resume cross-strait talks is the question of whether the "One China" principle may be a precondition set by Beijing or whether it is an issue open for discussion. Chen Shui-bian has proposed a "theory of economic and policy integration" that emphasizes the principles of equality and democracy and is anchored in the ROC Constitution. But given the fact that the Constitution upholds both the "One China" framework and the principle of national sovereignty, and that the PRC's posture has resulted in an impasse, it is unavoidable that the cross-strait dialogue should face awkward patches.

The cross-strait deadlock has yet to be broken and it has raised numerous policy issues, such as adding the word "Taiwan" to ROC passports, the debate over whether to officially adopt the PRC's Hanyu Pinyin romanization system or the home-grown Tongyong Pinyin for the transliteration of Chinese, and the debate on the human rights of mainland fishermen and brides. Given that all these issues have political implications for the question of reunification vs. independence, it is unclear how the first step out of the impasse is to be taken. It is also worth asking whether former president Lee Teng-hui's recent campaign to change the country's official name to "Taiwan" will rekindle soul-searching debates about reunification vs. independence as well as the conflict between people of Taiwanese and mainland ancestry.

Turning from cross-strait to foreign relations, since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 the United States has mounted military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq as part of the war on terror, a fact that will inevitably have an impact on the new international order. Moreover, North Korea's recent provocative gestures have made the East Asian geopolitical landscape even more unpredictable. Given that Taiwan has few opportunities to participate in East Asian alliances and organizations, how should it seek to reposition itself to protect itself? The government will have to tackle this question with wisdom.

Waiting for a reconciliation

In the three years since he became president, Chen Shui-bian has earnestly advocated a "people's government." He also appointed mainland-born Tang Fei, a member of the KMT and a former defense minister, to be his cabinet's first premier. After the parliamentary and local elections of December 2001, Chen hoped to establish a cross-party alliance for national stabilization and even formed a coalition government with this goal in mind.

Unfortunately, both these efforts to bring about reconciliation between political parties ultimately fell short of success. Because there is little mutual trust between the governing party and opposition parties that have mounted boycotts at every step, and the parliamentary process is beset by bickering, intrigue, and mistrust, policy debates lack focus and the government finds it difficult to implement its programs.

Recently, a well-intentioned NT$50 billion public works project designed to create jobs has been turned by the two main opposition parties--which have repeatedly one-upped the Executive Yuan's budget proposals in the Legislative Yuan--into a club with which to bash the government in the presidential campaign. With all this quarreling, how many jobs is the NT$50 billion likely to create? For the Ministry of Finance, which already finds itself in financial straits, is this not tantamount to piling one disaster upon another? Faced with this obstructionist behavior, how can Taiwan's long-term development and competitiveness be furthered? These and other more important questions are not being resolved or even being addressed.

Bickering among political parties has badly affected the public perception of the new government's record in power and has made Taiwanese people feel powerless and fed up with what they see as an unstable political system. Growing indifference to politics among citizens, the business world, and academia also seriously undermines the effort to turn Taiwan into a democracy with a high level of civic consciousness.

Economic recovery in sight

It is no secret that in the past three years economic stagnation and rising unemployment have been the government's biggest headache. But a level-headed assessment reveals that the main factor behind the economic doldrums in Taiwan is the recession in the world economy as well as the magnetic pull of mainland China's huge economy. Other members of the Greater China economic region, notably Hong Kong and Singapore, have been hit even harder.

Fortunately, after a negative economic growth rate of 2.18% in 2001, last year Taiwan's economy grew by 3.5%, and in the past two months industrial output has risen by 9%--a record in recent years. All of which demonstrates that Taiwan's economy is already on the way to recovery.

In recent weeks, the SARS epidemic has spread rapidly in mainland China, causing consternation on both sides of the strait and impeding business activity and tourism. While concern about SARS may yet cause more damage to the economy, ultimately most entrepreneurs, whose main goal is making money, will probably give serious consideration to the risks involved in relying excessively on the mainland. Just as in the past the "three links" issue became less contentious, the SARS debacle may be the turning point for Taiwanese entrepreneurs to return to Taiwan as their center of business operations.

In fact, over the past three years Chen Shui-bian's government cannot be said to have presented a good image of economic performance.

The Economic Development Advisory Conference held in 2001 drew many people from industry, government, academia, and science. Five main topics on the agenda yielded more than 300 points of agreement. One of the positive results was the national economic strategy for the new century known as "deep-rooted in Taiwan, branching out across the world," which was aimed at cultivating localization while promoting globalization. In cross-strait economic relations, this included replacing the "no haste, be patient" policy with the "active opening, effective management" policy designed to facilitate corporate global planning. Since the ROC officially joined the WTO on January 1, 2002 it has been able to trade on an equal footing with other countries in the globalized world economy. This will accelerate Taiwan's economic liberalization and industrial modernization.

Fighting corruption

The DPP prides itself on having upheld the highest moral standards in the rigorous investigation and prosecution of cases of political bribery and other types of corruption since it came to power. Yet the public has focused on a series of political and corporate scandals, most notably the long-simmering Lafayette frigate case, but also the Zanadau Development kickbacks scandal, the Kaohsiung City Council speakership election vote-buying scandal, the insider-trading and embezzlement case involving former KMT business manager Liu Tai-ying, and various tax scandals. These cases have unfortunately involved prominent business and political personalities in the opposition as well as in the governing party. The government's willingness to air its dirty linen in public would have been unthinkable under the previous administration.

The DPP government has proven its strength in fighting corruption, but when it comes to social reform it faces a much harder task. After six finance-related bills were passed in 2001, it was widely thought that the problem of bad loans would be resolved. But when the government tried reorganizing the country's seriously indebted farmers' and fishermen's credit cooperatives, more than 100,000 farmers and fishermen marched in protest on the streets of Taipei, causing a significant political tremor. Moreover, the pent-up frustrations of a decade of education reforms also prompted some 10,000 teachers to take to the streets last year.

Moreover, Taiwanese society lacks a forum for the open and fair debate of the conflicts of interest implicit in the provision of medical care, social security, and work insurance. Growing professional and class divisions are likely to be one of the biggest worries for the DPP government in the future.

The Chen Shui-bian government's skillful handling of foreign relations over the past three years is an achievement worthy of note. Soon after taking office, Chen Shui-bian made "democratic diplomacy and friendship trips" to Latin America and Africa, where he visited a number of countries with which the ROC has diplomatic relations but which had not been visited by President Lee Teng-hui. These visits strengthened diplomatic and friendship ties. "Head-of-state diplomacy" is now the usual practice for this government. Although "First-Lady diplomacy," "transit diplomacy" with unofficial stopovers in the United States, "vacation diplomacy," and similar overtures have sometimes misfired, on a number of occasions they have also succeeded beautifully in enhancing Taiwan's international exposure.

When the going gets tough...

Looking back over the new government's track record, what is striking is that following an unpromising start with a "minority presidency" that obtained no more than 40% of the votes cast, after three years of assiduous work Chen Shui-bian can be said to have made a definite mark on Taiwanese society.

According to many political analysts, the government's decision to resume work on the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant project, although it had previously announced its discontinuation, lost it support and put it right back where it had started. Yet President Chen notes that once the dust surrounding the speculation and controversy had settled, the country found that it had moved forward: both the governing party and the opposition now agree on the principle of a "nuclear-free homeland." Although on the surface these ongoing debates are seemingly useless, they have far-reaching significance for the nation's system of values.

The new government is less than a year away from the next presidential election. In March, the chairmen of two major opposition parties, the KMT's Lien Chan and the PFP's James Soong, announced that they will run as a team in next year's election to contend for the presidency and vice presidency. This announcement has already put President Chen's bid for reelection under considerable pressure.

Will Chen Shui-bian be able to repeat his performance of three years ago, when his chance of victory was thought to be slim, but he went into the campaign full of confidence and energy and ultimately won the presidency? Given his past record of coming out on top against all odds, it will be worth waiting to see if Chen will once again defeat his political opponents and the wheel of Taiwanese democracy will make another successful turn.

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After 1000 days in office, the president can still be found traveling the country in his casual clothes. The photo shows him paying his respects to an elderly couple in Chiayi celebrating their 80th anniversary. (courtesy of the GIO)