It's a new year, and Taiwan Panorama's first cover story is on the future of pop music in Taiwan. Given that the CD market is now only one-fourth the size it was ten years ago, it's not a happy story. Fortunately, even as mainstream bubblegum withers, all kinds of independent music is popping up all over, so maybe everythin' is gonna be alright.

Once I heard a speech by a music industry exec in which he admitted that when he sees a new mainstream pop CD come out, he often doesn't have even the slightest interest in giving it a listen, because there are so many bad tunes out there. He considers 1985-1995, the era of political liberalization in Taiwan, as the "golden decade" of Taiwanese pop. With singers like black-clad Luo Ta-you and the "campus folk" movement, who wrote to express themselves rather than to make money, songs back then were "works of art" rather than "products" to be marketed. Add in the strong economy of those days, and it was high times for the record industry.

But in Taiwan, and globally, the industry is getting hammered. There are many reasons, though illegal downloading off the Internet often gets the most blame. But now that Apple's iPod has sparked a move toward legal, fee-paying downloads, in 2005, according to figures from IFPI in London, the global download market will be US$1.1 billion, or nearly triple what it was in 2004, and will account for 6% of total music sales. This should increase sharply over time as we move into the "download age."

Besides the possibility that paid downloads will benefit companies, consumers, and music websites all at the same time, another trend is "indie" (independent) music. Popular music is no longer monopolized by a few conglomerates, and consumers have more and better choices. This is one of the focal points of our story this month.

Looking further ahead, as multinational record companies battle pirates, creative artists less concerned with profit are going their own way. For example, in the PRC, where copyrights are not respected, some artists just put their stuff directly on the net for free, letting the awesome force of word-of-mouse decide their fate. If they hit it big, record companies will come knocking on their door to negotiate cell-phone ring-tone sales or live concerts.

This is the age of popular choice, but also of fragmentation. There is not one "consumer," but countless varieties thereof. With the Internet now available as a selection tool, record companies can wait for popular products to float to the surface, then sign song-by-song or artist-by-artist agreements to do value-added goods and services. Maybe it will no longer be possible to sweep the entire market with one catchy tune, but diversified products also mean diversified income, which could provide an even more stable foundation.

The future of pop music, then, is about the challenge to the mainstream model and the rise of a new situation from the chaos. The same could be said about the employment market. This issue of Taiwan Panorama includes two related stories, one on the plight of the endangered middle class, and one on the rapid rise of the "new aristocracy" of "gray-collar" workers outside the mainstream. Change is everywhere, and the challenge for the new year is to recognize it and meet the challenges it poses.

Before closing, a quick word on some happy events that have been happening here at Taiwan Panorama recently: deputy editor-in-chief Teng Sue-feng won an award for outstanding cross-strait news report in the magazine category, presented by the Chinese Development Fund, for her special feature on medical provision for Taiwanese in Shanghai. Deputy editor Chang Chiung-fang took second prize in the child and youth news category, awarded by the Taiwan Alliance for Advancement of Youth Rights and Welfare, for her feature on runaway children. And senior photojournalist Hsueh Chi-kuang was awarded top prize for photo submissions in the veterans and mainlanders "homecoming story" category, awarded jointly by agencies including the Veterans Affairs Commission and the Council for Cultural Affairs. Our New Year's Resolution is to produce even better stories on all aspects of life in Taiwan, and we hope you will enjoy what we do.