In the days when the "three-two-one" family planning campaign ("three years between babies, two children is just right, one is not too few") was being strongly promoted in Taiwan, prospective parents were sternly warned that enough new babies were being born each year to eat all the extra rice grown with irrigation from the newly-built Shihmen Reservoir, and that the island's annual population increase was enough to repopulate Kaohsiung City.

Statistics also show that little Taiwan's population density ranks second only to Bangladesh. Taiwan has long given the impression of a place where overpopulation diminishes the quality of life. Yet today, when the dire warnings of a population explosion have hardly faded from our ears, Taiwan is suddenly facing a "baby famine" and a graying population.

Taiwan does not have a "one-child" policy, but the birthrate in Taipei City last year fell close to a level of one child per couple. The trend toward smaller families is clear.

The era of the only child?

Last year, the overall fertility rate among Taiwanese women (the average number of children each woman bears in her life) was 1.4, and in Taipei City it was only 1.2-almost down to one child per woman. Professor Chen Kuan-cheng of the health care management department at Chang Gung University, formerly a research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of Sociology, says that from the situation in Taipei today we can see what all of Taiwan will be like in ten years time. "People know about mainland China's compulsory one-child policy, but who'd have thought that Taiwan is approaching one-child status naturally!"

How many children is enough? Unlike most people, who would answer this question based on their economic situation, ability to cope, and personal wishes, demographers calculate in terms of "replacement." Allowing for infant mortality and the ratio of males to females, for births to replace deaths each woman must on average bear 2.1 children. In other words, on average each woman must give birth to one girl (a "net reproduction rate" of 1) if the childbearing population is not to go into a continuous decline.

In 1980, the birthrate among Taiwanese women was still above replacement level, at 2.5. But in 1983 the birthrate in Taiwan fell below replacement level, and has not exceeded it again since.

Chen Kuan-cheng observes that from 1983 to the present day, the net reproduction rate in Taiwan (the number of girls born to each woman) has remained at 0.75. This means that each generation has one quarter fewer potential childbearers than the one before, which is a cause for concern.

Modern people, unwilling to have children, often keep pets instead, finding puppies and kittens more affectionate than human babies.

Ideals and reality

The first problem to be faced as a result of a falling number of children is an inversion of the population pyramid, causing the human race to be confronted for the first time ever with the phenomenon of an aging population.

People today are not unwilling to have children, yet the number they are actually having continues to decrease.

According to the 1998 "Survey of Families and Birthrates in the Taiwan Area," less than 1% of married women in Taiwan aged 20 to 49 say that they do not wish to have children, and less than 5% want only one child. In other words, more than 90% of married women of childbearing age say they would like to have two or more children.

However, hopes are one thing, but reality is another. According to the analysis in the survey report, the number of children hoped for or considered ideal by married women with a college-level or better education, and by employed married women, is on average greater than two. But most are unable to fully realize their childbearing hopes or ideals, because of the high cost of raising children in terms of mental and physical energy, material resources and opportunity cost.

For example, one couple who have been married for several years, and who at ages 36 and 37 are still of childbearing age, still have no plans to have children as yet. The reason is that they both lead busy lives that keep them apart. While the wife was studying in Britain, the husband was working in Taiwan; after the wife returned to Taiwan she worked in the south of the island while the husband worked in the north; and recently the husband has gone to study in mainland China. They are never able to "get it together," and the main reason why they still have no children at their knees is that they "just don't have the time."

Half a century ago, in our grandparents' time, people in Taiwan regarded a large family as a sign of good fortune. In this photograph of the family of Tsai Kuo-lung (back row, center), his parents are seated in the middle row; the other nine are his brothers and sisters, large and small. (courtesy of Tsai Kuo-lung)

Late marriage to blame

Another major cause of falling birthrates is late marriage.

Chang Ming-cheng, formerly deputy director of the Department of Health's Bureau of Health Promotion and now a scientific adviser to the department, believes that the main reason for the continuous decline in the overall birthrate is late marriage, which has brought about a marked fall in the percentage of people under 30 who are married.

For instance, among the 168,700 couples who married in Taiwan in 1997, the average age of males marrying for the first time was 31 years, and that of females 28. If these women don't have children immediately after getting married, they will be "older mothers" by the time they do have their first child. Late marriage not only shortens the window of opportunity for childbearing, but also leads to some women eventually choosing not to have children, or being infertile.

However, Professor Hsueh Cheng-tai of National Taiwan University's sociology department believes that falling birthrates are caused by a reduction in the number of people getting married. Thirty years ago, the annual marriage rate in Taiwan was around nine couples per thousand people, but by last year it had fallen to 7.5 per thousand. The proportion of unmarried women in the 30-39 age group has risen steadily from 11.6% in 1980 to 34.3% last year.

People not marrying affects birthrates, and similarly divorce or marital problems also make women unwilling to "take the risk" of having children. "If we got divorced, wouldn't it be dreadful for the children? I'd rather just not have any more!" So says the wife in an unhappy marriage, who is unwilling to have a second child, even though she fears that her first child will be lonely.

Taiwan does not have a "one-child" policy, but the birthrate in Taipei City last year fell close to a level of one child per couple. The trend toward smaller families is clear.

Children are "debt"

Of course, contraceptive drugs and devices also play a part. Chen Kuan-cheng states that Taiwan already has become a "fully contraceptivized" society. According to statistics, 75% of women in Taiwan of childbearing age (15-49) have used contraception at least once. And with the advent of "morning after" pills, the scope for "accidents" has been reduced even further.

However, some people believe that changing attitudes are in fact the main reason for the falling numbers of children.

In the agricultural society of the past, strong men were needed to work the land; people believed that the greater number of sons and grandsons one had the greater one's good fortune, and they valued boys over girls. Today, such attitudes are clearly loosening their grip. In a survey on social change conducted by the Academia Sinica, around 40% of members of the public agreed with the propositions that "bearing children is not the main purpose of marriage," "children bring more problems than advantages," and "having children limits parents' freedom too much."

Chen Chao-nan, a research fellow at the Academia Sinica's Institute of Economics, also believes that changing attitudes to childbearing have indeed affected birthrates. He states that modern people in the industrial age, with their habit of careful planning and calculation, no longer regard having children as something purely positive. The Chinese have long said that "children are debt; without debt they don't come" (in other words, children come to repay or reclaim what is owed to or by one in a previous incarnation; if there is no such debt, one will have no children, and whether or not to have children is not a matter of personal choice). Economic development has brought higher living standards, but more and more people today are unwilling to spend their time and money on children.

"Children are an encumbrance." One TV director who is approaching 40 is sticking to his decision not to have children. He believes that without children a couple can take care of their work, and go wherever they want, without being tied down. Friends tell him that psychologists say a person who lacks the desire to have children may have difficulty smoothly entering old age. But his reply is that he "refuses to grow up" and "doesn't even want to enter middle age."

Taiwan does not have a "one-child" policy, but the birthrate in Taipei City last year fell close to a level of one child per couple. The trend toward smaller families is clear.

Shrinking labor force

What will be the effects of a declining birthrate?

According to estimates, after around ten years a falling birthrate will affect the size of schools; after 20 years it will affect the size of the workforce available to employers; after 30 years it will affect the rate at which the next generation is born, and after 60 years it will change the number of retirees.

A report on demographic trends, written by special commissioner Wang Ling of the manpower planning department at the Council for Economic Planning and Development, projects that the proportion of Taiwan's population who are of school and college age (6-21) will fall year by year, from 24% today to under 15% in 50 years' time. The number of elementary schoolchildren will fall by 40%, that of junior and senior high school students by 38%, and university-age people by half, perhaps bringing a serious shortage of students. In fact, the problem of schools being unable to recruit students is already beginning to emerge.

The number of people of working age will also decline. From 2002 to 2011 the proportion of people of working age (15-64) in the population will be around 70%, but by 2051 it is projected to fall to only 57%.

Chen Chao-nan observes that in the past, family planning was advocated in order to promote economic development. But today the graying of the population is producing a shortfall in the size of the labor force. A shortage of workers will push up wages and thus be bad for exports, or else it will be necessary to import large numbers of foreign workers, which will bring about social change and may give rise to many social problems.

The combined effect of falling birthrates and increasing average lifespans is to accentuate the problem of population aging. According to a report published by the UN, at present 10% of the world's population is aged over 60, but this figure is set to double by the middle of the century, at which time the number of people over 60 will exceed the number of children for the first time. In both Japan and Italy the average age of the population is now over 40, the highest in the world.

The speed at which Taiwan's population is graying is also a cause for concern. At present people over 65 make up 9% of the population, but in 30 years time this will have jumped to 19%, and in 50 years it will be around 30%. Chang Ming-cheng observes that too rapid a growth in the elderly population is very disadvantageous for society. It not only calls for staggering health care expenditure, but will also cause overall production capacity to shrink. A society with too many old people and not enough young people will also suffer the pressure of an excessive burden of care. At present there are eight young people to support each old person in Taiwan, but extrapolating current trends to 2051, there will be only three youngsters supporting each senior.

"Two children is just right"? Women today think long and hard about whether to have children, and how many. Their feelings are often hesitant and ambivalent.

Patriotic effort?

In response to the problem of aging populations, various countries are looking for ways to encourage their citizens to have more children.

The new population policy approved by the Executive Yuan in 1992 changed the long-term growth target from "slowing growth" to "maintaining reasonable growth," and the government turned from saying "two children is just right, one is not too few" to proclaiming "two children is just right, three is fine too."

But can family planning slogans or population policies turn the tide and revive modern people's willingness to bear children? With this in mind, many countries have introduced more practical "incentive" plans.

Benefit payments and tax breaks are at present the means most commonly adopted to encourage an increase in childbearing.

France began giving incentives for childbirth in 1850, and today the French government pays each mother a total of US$7000 over the period from the sixth month of her pregnancy until her child reaches age three. Although the birthrate in France has not risen greatly because of these measures, it is nonetheless now the highest among European countries.

Singaporean senior minister Lee Kuan Yew has also called upon women who pursue higher education to have plenty of children. For families with two or more children, the Singaporean government gives an extra tax-free allowance and a special tax deduction, and families with three children or more get priority for allocation of state-owned accommodation.

In Japan, where aging of the population is severe, plans have been put forward for greater tax reductions for those who have children. The entertainment star couple Takuya Kimura and Shizuka Kudoh were extolled as "patriotic" when Ms. Kudoh became pregnant again soon after giving birth.

Children do not necessarily provide security in old age, and encouraging people to have more children is not the only solution to the problem of an aging population.

Tax on singles

At present, the CEPD has proposed plans to reduce taxes for families with three children, or to pay them benefits, in the hope that this will encourage people to have more children. But many people believe that incentives such as tax reductions and benefits are not sufficiently attractive or persuasive to induce citizens to bear children "for the good of the country."

"Looking at the history of the Chinese nation, government incentives have never been effective at encouraging anything. But penalties are very effective." Chen Kuan-cheng believes the reason the policy of incentives for giving birth is of limited effectiveness is because it lacks a system of penalties.

Chen advocates levying a "tax on singles." He proposes that people over the age of 40 who do not have their own or adopted children, and cannot provide proof that they are infertile or lack the resources to raise children, should be liable to pay a "retirement reserve tax" until age 65.

Some people may feel that this move would discriminate against single people, but Chen Kuan-cheng avers that the concept that "others looked after me, so I should look after others" is entirely natural. If you don't support someone else, then paying a retirement reserve tax to support yourself in old age is not discriminatory.

Apart from this, "destigmatization" may also be a feasible way of raising birthrates.

Chen Kuan-cheng states that at present the birthrate among married people is still at a reasonably high level-the problem is that the number of married couples is too low. The proportion of people in European and North American countries who never marry is 25%. In the past the equivalent figure in Taiwan was just 5%, but now it is approaching 25% too. That being the case, why does society not have more open and tolerant attitudes toward unmarried parenthood and single-parent families? In Sweden, for example, as many children are born out of wedlock as within. It is estimated that the number of pregnancies aborted in Taiwan each year is around four times the number of children born; and the main cause of abortion is social pressure. Chen says that if we could turn social pressure and opposition into support, many more children might be kept and this would do a great deal to raise birthrates.

Difficult choices

Many women's health advocates staunchly oppose top-down population policies, and take the view that women should have complete freedom to decide what to do with their own bodies.

Evidently, the questions of whether people today want to bear children, and how many, are not ones that can be decided by policies and slogans. As long ago as 1971, a professor of demography at the University of California came to the conclusion that people's attitudes to childbearing are shaped by government and media propaganda, but their ideal number of children is always different from the number they actually have.

Population issues are very complex, and touch upon a variety of issues including social, cultural, economic and educational ones. But they are also inseparable from environmental issues. Rapid growth in human populations accelerates the consumption of the earth's resources. According to statistics, in 1900 the world's total population of 1.6 billion consumed an average of a few thousand barrels of oil per day, but today's population of six billion consumes 72 million barrels per day. Apart from the depletion of resources, global warming and environmental degradation, problems such as rising crime rates and increasing unemployment are also closely related to rapid population growth.

Fang Chien, secretary-general of the Green Consumers Foundation, states that rather than encouraging population growth willy-nilly it is better to prepare for the predictable coming decline in population, and to plan and make changes. For instance, one can change the pace of life, and teach people that different occupations are of equal value. He avers that the result of an aging population and labor shortage in Europe is in fact to reduce the gap in social status between blue and white collar workers, and to promote equality between people.

From this it would appear that having more children is not the only way to solve the problem. Chen Chao-nan also says that on the one hand we need to change the structure of industrial production in order to solve the problem of labor shortages, but on the other hand we need to set up adequate daycare provision to increase people's willingness to have children. Apart from this, he says, pensions and social security systems should be put into place as soon as possible, and we should actively consider the problems of older people, and plan appropriately for a future of a continuously aging population. We must adopt a many-pronged approach in order to transform the future human crisis of reduced birthrates into an opportunity to create a more ideal society.