Elections on Taiwan 20 or 30 years ago were rather straightforward affairs. As a county councilman elected at the time recalls, all a candidate needed then were a few words of support from an influential member of the local gentry and he or she would pass with flying colors.
With changes in society, a period followed in which gifts of Accent and scented soap were all the rage, and campaign costs jumped accordingly. But in recent years money seems to have lost its magic. Some candidates have spent bundles and still not been elected.
People can't help wondering: what is the key to winning an election these days? In what ways have voters changed?
Two significant changes are age and educational level. One third of the electorate is now under 30. One tenth--and one fifth of voters between 20 and 24--is college educated.
A significant feature of current voting habits is the rate of undecided, or "mobile," ballots. In the past, most voters had already made up their minds whom they were going to vote for before campaigning even began. But a 1980 study showed that only 16 percent of voters do so now; the rest of the votes are up for grabs.
These changes have led to interesting results. A study of the 1983 elections revealed that the higher a candidate's media exposure and the larger the amount of campaign literature distributed, the greater his or her chances of success. Campaign methods have evolved accordingly.
What the candidate stands for is important too. A 1980 study of Taipei voters showed that over 55 percent look most at a candidate's performance and political views in deciding whom to vote for.
Political views widened in scope during the 1970's. Before then, the interests of candidates and voters were largely local, with attention focused on factional rivalries and squabbles. But after the diplomatic setbacks of 1971, candidates and voters began to raise their concerns to larger national and social issues.
Recent years have seen more and more unusual ploys to win votes, such as the candidate in the last legislative election who used high-tech slide shows to attract voters and was elected by a wide margin.
Today's candidate, in fact, besides holding substantive views on the issues, must also look at the total "package". And how to project a good image, promote political aspirations, and use the media for publicity are a rising new profession.
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Do you know what these voters are thinking?
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