In the late 1940s, the then bustling and cosmopolitan Shanghai rejoiced at having survived World War II relatively unscathed. But when the red tide of communism flooded through China, it marked the end for the city: foreign and Chinese entrepreneurs alike were swept out through its gates and their assets seized by the state. Many of the hurriedly departing capitalists made their way to the little city of Hong Kong, a lonely outpost under the British flag on China's periphery, to wait for a chance to make a comeback.
Half a century later, Hong Kong, this latter-day Pearl of the Orient, is about to meet the same fate and fall into the hands of communist China: it is due to be handed back to China on 1 July 1997. With reform and liberalization, China at the end of the 20th century is growing more prosperous by the day. But despite Beijing's promises of "one country, two systems," and "self-rule for Hong Kong" guaranteed by Hong Kong's Basic Law, as long as the basic nature of the totalitarian communist regime has not changed and the political straitjacket has not been loosened, does Hong Kong really have nothing to fear?
As far as Taiwan is concerned, Hong Kong is its third largest trading partner, so any change affecting the colony is of tremendous importance for Taiwan. For the Taiwanese firms which form the trade bridge between Taiwan and Hong Kong--this special group of people who spend their time shuttling around the triangle of Taiwan, Hong Kong and mainland China--1997 holds an extra worry: with cross-strait relations deadlocked and progress towards a bilateral investment protection agreement nowhere in sight, Taiwanese business people cannot help wondering whether the mainland authorities will take out their frustration on them and deliberately cause them difficulties; and as long as ROC restrictions on direct investment in the mainland remain in force, Taiwanese companies have to worry whether, after Hong Kong reverts to the mainland, their foothold there will not lose its neutral "third country" status. Will investments in Hong Kong be deemed illegal by the ROC government? Pressure from both sides of the Taiwan Strait, and the many unknown quantities involved, cast all kinds of shadows over the future of trade between Taiwan and Hong Kong.
The life blood of that trade flows through the air and sea transport links between the two territories. How will things change if the name "Republic of China" and the white sun, blue sky and red ground of the ROC flag are forbidden to appear on any ship, aircraft or document entering Hong Kong from Taiwan? After 1997, will the air and sea links between Taiwan and Hong Kong become more extensive, or will they be broken overnight?
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The close-packed skyscrapers, modern offices and high-class shopping malls brim with commercial vitality. In Hong Kong, capitalism has developed its potential to the full. (photo by Cheng Yuan-ching)
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A thousand days before the 1997 transfer of power, an enormous countdown board went up by Tiananmen Square in Beijing, showing the significance of Hong Kong's return for the communist mainland regime. (Sinorama file photo).
