Here, the coming of a "new era" refers neither to future political changes on Taiwan, nor to future economic development, although they both will undergo marked changes in the later half of the eighties. The purpose of this article is to discuss the effects of changes in population on Taiwan, and point out that the change in population since the Japanese occupation not only has been created by a large drop in the death and birth rate, but also represents a massive transformation in the age structure of the population.

Since both the death rate and the birth rate are almost at an all-time low on Taiwan, the main factor which influences the population growth is periodic changes. The age structure of the population will have a great effect on the future economic development of our society and the welfare of the people.

In brief, between 1920 and 1980, due to the sharp increase in population on Taiwan, the infant and child population came to occupy a larger part of the population as a whole with each passing year. After 1980 the birth rate dropped below the norm; the population of the elderly began to increase. It's estimated that by the year 2024, 16 percent of the population on Taiwan (approximately four million) will be 65 years of age. If all the needs of the elderly are to be met by society--that is, if their living standards are to equal the average living standard of the production population (including workers and nonworkers)--then the amount needed to support the elderly will take up an estimated 25 percent of the tax rate of the production population. If each elderly person were to receive NT$6,000 per month in old age payments, then in the year 2024 such payments would amount to NT$240 billion, about half of this year's government budget.

Some people erroneously believe that an aging population is not a problem since by that time the living standard will have risen, and the cost of taking care of the elderly have dropped. The rather naive concept which underlies this suggestion is an assumption that the elderly from the year 2025 are able to live in 1985, and that anyone with a husband, wife, or child can enjoy the fruits of economic development. A more intelligent school of thought would urge the government and the people to make investments, save capital, develop skills and manpower, and confront the problem of an aging society.

An aging population brings about more problems than just that of retirement and taking care of the aged. At present most parents of adult children are no longer childbearing parents. With only two children, the "pressure" brought about on the children after their parents are retired is less than if there was only one child, or none.

Following the rapid increase of an aged population, people always expect the collapse of family ethics. However, the aging population presents even more problems. One problem that appears earlier than the care of the elderly after retirement, and is more readily recognizable, is the problem brought on by an aging workforce. The cost of products and services has already become a part of history with the coming of the new era. If economic transformations succeed, and they must, then people will have to dig deeper into their pockets for goods and services.