In Taiwan, trying to understand what overseas Chinese think about the presidential election is no different than asking a question of the wind.

Fortunately, the development of the Internet has allowed us to economically contact a large group of net users who, though living overseas, retain deep concern for politics in Taiwan.

Most overseas Chinese will not come back for the election. Is this because they think the procedures for them to vote in the presidential election are too unreasonable? That's not what we heard on the Internet. . . .

Our respondents come from only one part of the overseas Chinese community, the part that happens to be tied into the Internet. So it must be clearly stated at the outset that they are not by any means representative of overseas Chinese around the world.

Our questionnaire was put up on SinaNet, a US-based Internet provider that has a lock on the ethnic Chinese market. In one week beginning on December 27, we received 1108 responses.

Since this was the first time any Taiwan media put a questionnaire out through SinaNet, the first thing to be done before looking at the results is to understand the backgrounds of the Internet users--all ethnic Chinese living in the US--who responded to our survey.

Of the 1000 or so respondents, nearly half fell within the 30-39 age bracket. The next largest group was between 21 and 29, followed by those in the 40-49 age cohort. There were very few respondents of other age groups.

Staying in close touch with home

In terms of the occupations of the respondents, the largest single category was those working in industry. This was followed by "students," and there were also many respondents working in research institutions. As for gender, men accounted for over 85% of the sample.

This profile conforms with the impression many people have long had that "those who went abroad early mostly studied engineering or physical science, and after graduation either went to work doing industrial research or stayed in academia."

The number of emigrants in the sample was smaller than expected--just over half. Over 40% were non-emigrants, which is to say ROC citizens living abroad. This is mainly because more than 30% of our respondents were overseas students.

Contrary to the common impression that expatriates have little contact with their native land, more than 80% of the respondents had been back in Taiwan within the past three years. More than half had been in Taiwan within the previous year. This suggests that they have maintained close ties with Taiwan.

In terms of provincial origin, a plurality of our respondents--more than 40%--were second generation mainlanders (that is, children of fathers who left mainland China before 1949). The number of second-generation mainlanders exceeded the number of Minnan-Taiwanese (speakers of the Minnan dialect whose ancestors emigrated to Taiwan from Fujian at least as long ago as the 19th century) by two percentage points. In our survey, Hakka-Taiwanese (speakers of the Hakka dialect whose ancestors came to Taiwan from Guangdong at least as early as the 19th century) were assigned a separate category.

As for political orientation, nearly one-half of respondents declared themselves supporters of the New Party, followed by supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT).

Civil servants most dissatisfied?

Virtually all the respondents were aware that there will be a presidential election in Taiwan this March. This suggests that those who responded to our survey are those who pay a great deal of attention to politics in Taiwan. Also, the vast majority were also aware that overseas Chinese have the right to vote; only ten or so percent did not know.

How much did they understand about the regulations for overseas voters? The number of people who understood very clearly, plus those who had heard about some of the regulations, totaled more than 80% of respondents. One could infer from this that the government's Overseas Chinese Affairs Commission has been quite effective in its information efforts over the past few months.

Did the respondents feel that the regulations were reasonable?

The highest proportion of people--about 40%--called the regulations acceptable. Interestingly, almost the same proportion of persons responded that the regulations are "very reasonable" as responded "very unreasonable" (nearly 30% each). This reveals that large numbers of our respondents hold extreme views at both ends of the spectrum.

Breaking down respondents by occupation, it turns out that the occupation with the highest percentage of people responding "very unreasonable" (more than 40%) was government employees stationed overseas. The remainder of government employees found the regulations merely acceptable, and not one responded "very reasonable." Students and business people were more positive; less than one-quarter of these answered "very unreasonable."

Unequal opportunity for women

Breaking the results down according to gender, men were clearly more satisfied with the regulations than women. About 30% of men found them very reasonable, but only 10-plus percent of women answered the same. This is perhaps because many women must stay at home and look after their school-age children, so they have even less opportunity to go back to Taiwan to vote.

Now let's examine the results according to provincial origin and political party support. Minnan-Taiwanese supporters of the DPP expressed the greatest satisfaction with the regulations, with Hakka-Taiwanese second. New Party supporters, mainly mainlanders, were relatively dissatisfied.

There was a positive correlation between satisfaction with the regulations and expressed intention to vote in the election, though no causal relationship is necessarily to be inferred. Of those who found the regulations "very unreasonable," still about one-tenth said they are willing to return to vote. This group obviously includes those people who, as described by New Party activist Tai Chi, "complain for half an hour before making their plane reservations."

Which parts of the regulations did respondents think most in need of alteration?

Given freedom to respond to this question any way they chose, respondents focused on two particular issues. Many people argued that those who have taken citizenship in a second country (while also keeping their ROC citizenship), who pay no taxes in Taiwan, and whose young men do not have to do military service, should not be allowed to vote. Meanwhile, an even larger number urged that a system of mail-in absentee ballots be used, and that people not be required to return to their last place of legal residence in Taiwan in order to vote.

Nearly 80% of those responding to our survey met required voting qualifications. Obviously then, the vast majority of them come from Taiwan (since one of the requirements for eligibility is that the individual must have at one time in his or her life established legal residence in Taiwan for at least four consecutive months). As for those who are not eligible, the fact that they completed the survey suggests that they still retain a high level of concern about the presidential election in Taiwan.

Between the ideal and the practical

Of those eligible to vote, how many expressed the intention to return to Taiwan to cast ballots?

Only ten or so percent said they definitely plan to do so. Meanwhile, well over half indicated that they certainly will not do so. It is worth noting that almost a quarter of eligible respondents gave no answer to this question, suggesting that many people have not made a final decision.

Why is it so hard for them to decide? Given an open-response question, the majority of those who said they will not return pointed to the practical obstacles--"I have no free time," or "It would cost too much for an airplane ticket." Those who said they will come back, on the other hand, based their choices on less pragmatic considerations, instead citing reasons like "I am a Chinese" or "I am a Taiwanese." So, we may surmise, many people who have not yet decided are probably hung up between practical and idealistic considerations.

What kind of person is willing to spend the money and time to come back to vote?

We discovered that the more frequently one returns to Taiwan, the more likely one is to return at the time of the election and vote. Looking at the results broken down by age, those 30-39 expressed the least intention to return. People in this group are more likely to have small children at home and to be just at the early stages of their careers, so they are least likely to be able to return to vote.

A minuscule impact

In terms of political party orientation, supporters of the KMT expressed the highest intention to return to vote. They were followed by supporters of the DPP, while relatively fewer backers of the New Party said they will return to vote.

One explanation for this can be found by looking at the occupational backgrounds of the overseas supporters of the various political parties. The proportion of New Party supporters employed in American industry was higher than of DPP or KMT backers, while the ratio of DPP supporters in research or still in school exceeded that of the New Party. Generally speaking, people working in industry have less flexibility with their time than those in research or in school.

How much impact did our respondents think overseas voters can have on the presidential election?

About one-quarter said there would be no impact at all. Only just over ten percent answered that the impact could be large. The majority of respondents said that overseas residents going back to Taiwan to vote could have only a small impact.

As one might guess, those who felt the impact could be great expressed the greatest intention to return home to vote. The intention to return of those who felt the impact would be slight or non-existent was correspondingly much lower. This indicates that among our respondents there is a high degree of uniformity between feelings of efficacy and plans to act.

Looking at responses according to party preference, KMT supporters expressed the most optimism about the impact of overseas voters. New Party voters were more reserved, and DPP supporters were most dubious about their potential impact.

Settling in or returning to their roots?

Should overseas Chinese and those with dual nationality participate in domestic politics?

It turns out that more than 80% of respondents answered "yes, of course" or "yes, within reason." Only a small percentage responded that overseas residents should stay out of politics in the old country. Perhaps this is because the United States allows dual citizenship, so emigrants there have more political freedom and security. Or perhaps this is because the people who responded to the survey in the first place are likely to be those most concerned about politics in Taiwan. In any case, this explains why overseas Chinese in North America are so active in making donations or working on campaigns every time there is an election in Taiwan.

In terms of occupation, government employees abroad were most supportive of overseas residents participating in politics in Taiwan. On the other hand, overseas students, who most likely best reflect current sentiments of people living in Taiwan, were most opposed.

In terms of provincial origin, the percentage of mainlanders (both first and second generation) who said that overseas residents should participate in Taiwan politics was higher than the percentage of Minnan-Taiwanese; the ratio of Hakka-Taiwanese was lower still. This would seem to indicate that Hakkas are most likely to see the wisdom of avoiding involvement in others' problems.

Based on party preference, DPP supporters were clearly most reserved about overseas residents participating in politics in Taiwan. New Party supporters were most positive, while KMT supporters were in the middle.

There was also a difference between the responses of emigrants and non-emigrants. Less than 10% of emigrants felt overseas people should avoid involvement in politics in Taiwan, while nearly 20% of non-emigrants felt the same way.

As might be expected, there is a positive correlation between attitudes toward the propriety of overseas persons participating in politics in Taiwan and expressed intention to return to vote. The more respondents saw such participation as appropriate, the more likely they were to say they will return to vote.

Who abroad is most active?

Are our respondents in direct contact with activities related to the presidential election?

Only about one-tenth answered that there are "many" such activities going on around them, while about 35% said "a few." It is especially noteworthy that more than half of respondents have never had any contact with political party activities relating to the presidential election. This indicates that most of our respondents are not ordinarily politically active, nor are they targeted by those who are politically active.

More than 40% of government employees have been in contact with election-related activities, the highest percentage of any occupational group. Students had the lowest percentage of respondents who said that such activities were taking place around them. The percentage of emigrants who reported "many" such activities was higher than that for non-emigrants. This may be because non-emigrants are only abroad for a short time, and are focused on their short-term objectives (like studying). Emigrants, on the other hand, have settled lives, and so they feel a greater desire to participate in politics.

So which political party is most active abroad in activities related to the presidential election? A cross-sectional analysis shows that slightly more New Party supporters than either KMT or DPP supporters said there are "many" or "a few" activities going on around them.

There was also a clear correlation between exposure to election-related activities by political parties and expressed intention to return to Taiwan to vote. The more activities going on around a respondent, the greater the likelihood that respondent will return to vote. This correlation held true for all three parties, indicating that in terms of the overseas vote, the parties get out of it only what they put into it.