Aeba: Mr. Director, how do you see the situation on the mainland at the moment?

Dr. Shaw: After the Peking massacre on June 4, I think that the whole of mainland China now is in for a long period of turmoil. The students, intellectuals, and awakened citizens will join hands. From now on, there will probably be no more peaceful demonstrations. In the future, there will be armed revolution against the Chinese Communist government. I think that the days of Chinese communism are numbered, because the recent democracy movement drew the participation not only of students, but also workers and citizens from many social classes. The mainland Chinese government's use of tanks and guns to silence the voice of the people has thoroughly disillusioned the people. They now realize that peaceful demonstrations will never work.

Aeba: You mentioned that their days are numbered. How long do you think it will be before the decline of the Communist regime on the mainland?

Dr. Shaw: I am Chinese historian by profession. There were three times in modern Chinese history that the Chinese people reached a consensus as the first step to fulfilling their political demands. The first was in 1905, when Dr. Sun Yat-sen and his revolutionary comrades decided to form a revolutionary organization in Tokyo called the China Revolutionary Alliance. The Manchu dynasty was overthrown just seven years later. Chinese people everywhere decided to fight against the Japanese militarists in 1937, and eight years later, China was victorious in the anti-Japanese war. This is now the third time. The Chinese in mainland China and in the rest of the world, including Tokyo, New York, Paris, and London have all come to the conclusion that Chinese Communism has to go. I don't know how long it will take. One prediction was made by the famous mainland Chinese novelist, Liu Pin-yen, who is now residing in the U.S. When asked when was he going back to China, he said it would be in two years' time, adding that revolutionary changes would occur in mainland China before his return. So, according to Liu's prediction, Chinese Communism will fall in two years.

Aeba: What do you predict will be the result of the conflict between the United States and China over Fang Li-chih?

Dr. Shaw: I think the United States has proven itself to be a worthy leader of the free world by holding high the principles of humanitarianism and human rights. The American decision to offer political asylum to Mr. Fang is a very courageous and admirable act. I don't think the United States will change its decision. If the mainland Chinese government continues to attack the United States verbally, or possibly even with force, say against the U.S. embassy, I think that would probably bring the U.S.-mainland Chinese relationship to a close. So we believe that mainland China will have to accept the American decision.

Aeba: Are you saying that the mainland Chinese government is reasonable enough to accept this decision?

Dr. Shaw: If they were rational, they would. But judging from their irrational behavior in Tienanmen Square on June 4, I don't know what they will do. They have always been unpredictable. They do very strange and cruel things, not only to foreigners, but also to their own people. I believe that whenever students take to the streets, they eventually get what they ask for. You remember the May Fourth Movement of China in 1919 in Peking. There was a demonstration against the Peking warlord government. Nine years later, in 1928, Chiang Kai-shek set up his National government in Nanking. It only took nine years. Students and intellectuals command particular respect from the people in Chinese society. Murdering the students and intellectuals was an unforgivable mistake which will cause very serious consequences for the Chinese Communists.

Aeba: So you are in a good position to judge Communist China?

Dr. Shaw: Mainland China has sent about 100,000 students and scholars abroad, probably 30,000 to 40,000 to Japan alone. About half of that number in years past have returned. They began sending students abroad after 1972, so it's been almost 17 years already. When Sun Yat-sen founded his revolutionary alliance, the Tung-meng-hui, in Tokyo, there were 13,000 Chinese students in Tokyo, and all of them later became anti-Manchu. All 13,000 students eventually went back to mainland China. They did propaganda work among the Manchu New Army, and the army rebelled. The students rebelled. On March 29, 1911, 72 Chinese student revolutionaries staged a revolt in Canton, and they were all killed. We call them the 72 martyrs. Seven months later, in October 1911, the revolution in Wuhan took place, and three months afterwards the Manchu dynasty collapsed.

This was all achieved by students. The situation now is very similar to that in the early 20th century, when revolutionary movements in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Hanoi, Paris, London, New York and all over the United States supported Sun Yat-sen's cause.

In Chinese history and tradition, students and scholars represent the conscience and will of the people. So once they reach a consensus and speak with one voice, that decides everything.

Aeba: Some say that the student movement represents just a part of the population, and that the number of students, the intellectual elite, is very small compared with the rest of the population.

Dr. Shaw: In the examples I mentioned to you, the students were also a tiny minority, but they changed history. There is one thing that is very significant. While the Tienanmen Square democracy movement was initiated by students, other social classes, such as workers, ordinary citizens, even policemen and some military elements in civilian clothes later joined in. So it's a nationwide movement.

Aeba: Reports from my colleagues in Peking coincide with your explanation, but I see a difference between the present situation and that of 1919 or 1912. At that time, the Manchu government did not have full control of the countryside, but the Chinese Communist Party now does. They have control of the peasants and countryside organizations. That's a great difference.

Dr. Shaw: I agree that a modern-day dictatorship is certainly different from the loose governmental system of the late Manchu dynasty, and also from the situation in the 1920s. But there is another phenomenon in mainland China that we must be aware of, namely, the revolution of rising expectations. Since Teng Hsiao-ping returned to power in 1978, living standards and per capita income have increased. The standard of living in the countryside has improved, but the people have become increasingly discontented. Before 1972, when China was a closed society, everybody was poor. But since everybody was poor, there was not so much discontent. Since 1972, the mainland Chinese have had contact with the people from Hong Kong, Japan, and also Taiwan. In the last two years, over half a million people from Taiwan have traveled to mainland China. So suddenly they realize their US$300 per capita income, or the small improvements in their standard of living, are meager compared to the standard of living enjoyed by Chinese in Tokyo, the United States, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. From what I have heard from our people returning from visits to mainland China, the people there are very angry. "Why do the Chinese outside of mainland China live so much better than the Chinese in mainland China?" they ask. Mainland China ranks among the poorest areas in the world. So even if things have in fact improved, the people are less happy. Second, inflation in the cities is very serious. Some people say that the current inflation situation is worse than in the 1940s. Third, corruption has reached unbearable proportions. You have to use bribery or "go through the backdoor" to get just about anything done. Widespread corruption was one of the major complaints of the students this time. Corruption means inequality. You have. I don't have. You have too much, and I have too little. Inequality is always a source of resentment.

The only way to deal with this revolution of rising expectations is to bridge the gap. What does that depend on? On the four modernizations program, which has been going on for the last decade. Who can make the modernization program a success? The educated class. But now, the regime has alienated the educated class through the Tienanmen massacre. So the educated class will practise a strategy of non-cooperation. Also, the rulers who are now in power, Li Peng, Teng Hsiao-ping, and the other socalled hardliners, are not very well educated. Because of their conservative policies and mentality, the mainland Chinese relationship with the Western world and Japan is going downhill. There is now worldwide condemnation of the mainland Chinese government. And that relationship will take many, many years to repair. Foreign and Taiwan businessmen are afraid to invest there. They are going to look for safer places to do business.

Aeba: You said that closing the gap might be one way out.

Dr. Shaw: They have to do it. But they can't.

Aeba: They can't, so they try to do it in another way, by cutting their population off from the world. And judging from their hardline policies against the United States, is there the possibility that they will again close their society to the outside world, and repress the population by force?

Dr. Shaw: They want to cut their people off from the rest of the world, and have imposed an information blockade. They are expelling foreign reporters, controlling the media, and spreading lies through television. But the days of thought control are over. Their 100,000 students and scholars living abroad write letters and make phone calls home. We will continue our open-door policy toward mainland China, and will continue to send our people to mainland China for visits. Japanese tourists continue to go to mainland China. Over 60 million visits have been made by overseas Chinese and foreigners to mainland China. The economic reform program has gone too far for them to cut off foreign contact, because then their industries will collapse. Where are they going to get foreign exchange? Though I hope it will not happen, mainland China may become a big debtor country, like Brazil; because if they cannot export enough and earn enough foreign exchange, how can they pay back Japanese businessmen or your government? So I think the economic situation will get worse. Many Chinese students and intellectuals have declared they will not go back. But these are the best minds, the cream of the crop, the most capable people. If they refuse to go back, how is mainland China going to solve its economic problems, and bridge that gap?

Aeba: So in principle, you don't see any change of policy forthcoming?

Dr. Shaw: We still don't know; it remains to be seen. They may become more rigid, reduce certain types of contacts, and be afraid of our influence. But they cannot cut off contact, because for years they have been talking of opening up the "three contacts and four exchanges." The three contacts are navigation, trade, and communications; the four exchanges are in the areas of economics, culture, technology, and sports. If they cut off contact, then all these efforts will have come to naught, and they will be defeating what they have been working for all these years. They want to bring Hong Kong and Taiwan under the so-called "one country, two systems" model, in which one system is socialism, and the other capitalism, but both pay allegiance to the Chinese Communist government. If they were to cut off relations with us, how could they still hope to incorporate us under the "one country, two systems" model?

Aeba: It is quite common for a country undergoing domestic troubles to change from a peaceful foreign policy to aggressive action.

Dr. Shaw: There are two basic reasons against a change in that direction. One, they have enough troubles among themselves. They would not dare to launch such a policy before reaching some kind of consensus, because that would cause even more internal dissension. Two, in all likelihood, if they did such a thing, they would fail. You remember that in 1958, they launched an attack on Quemoy (Kinmen), and bombarded our offshore islands. They lost that battle. There are still 90 miles of water separating Taiwan and mainland China. They attacked the North Vietnamese in 1979, and didn't win there either. If they were to decide to take more militant action against us, that would probably hasten their collapse. I don't think the People's Liberation Army would support an attack on Taiwan, because people would ask, "Why do you want to attack Taiwan? What has Taiwan done to deserve an attack?" This is why during this Tienanmen Square incident, our government's reaction has been rather reserved. We do not want to offer any excuse to the other side to attack us. We don't want to provoke them. Taiwan has been very successful, and people on the mainland respect and admire us. Our policy toward mainland China has been opening up more every day, so that if they were to do it, it would cause disagreement among them. And we are also fully prepared. Our self-defense program has been progressing very well. We have manufactured an Indigenous Defense Fighter (IDF) Plane, and we can defend ourselves. They would suffer heavy casualties if they attacked, and I think we could survive.

Aeba: You are right in saying that they could not find any excuse for attacking Taiwan.

Dr. Shaw: Sometimes a dictatorship uses a foreign war to divert the people's attention, and sometimes it succeeds. Sometimes it brings about their downfall. We think it would be the latter. And after all, we are not foreigners. If we were Vietnamese or Indians, they might get some support from the people. But we are Chinese, and have never done any harm to our people on the other side.

Aeba: What is your view of the back-ground of the revolt of Chao Tzu-yang against Teng Hsiao-ping? Two years ago, Hu Yao-pang turned against Teng Hsiao-ping, and it was mainly because he mis-understood the support he had from Teng. He thought that he was trusted enough to raise the question of Teng's retirement. And he was disgraced. At that time, Chao Tzu-yang criticized Hu, so Chao Tzu-yang should have known what would happen to him if he opposed Teng Hsiao-ping. Why did he dare to do such a thing at this time?

Dr. Shaw: Chao Tzu-yang is smart, and I think he sympathized with the students. He realized that the success of the four modernizations program depended essentially on the cooperation and support of the intellectuals. He knew that you could alienate the farmers or other social classes, but not the students or intellectuals, because they are the ones who can make the reform a success or failure. He is a practical politician.

There are two interpretations of the nature of the demands of the democracy movement. Some people say the demands were for reform within the system, and not for a revolution outside the system. Which is correct? I think this is crucial. People who argue that this is still a reform within the socialist system point out that the students and intellectuals did not openly demand the replacement or overthrow of the party or socialism. They were simply asking the Li Peng faction to step down, asking for more democracy and less corruption. The other school argued that it was a revolution outside the system, a demand for democracy in the western sense. They support their view with quotes from the students, such as the slogan, "give me democracy or give me death," reminiscent of Patrick Henry's "Give me liberty, or give me death." And why in the world would they raise New York's Statue of Liberty in Tienanmen Square? Both are symbols of Western-style democracy. Third, the students and intellectuals outside of mainland China were demanding the overthrow of the party and socialism. Is it plausible that the intellectuals and students in the United States have a different mentality from their comrades in Tienanmen Square? No, they are the same. The only reason why the students in Tienanmen Square did not demand the overthrow of the party and socialism is because they could not. If they did, they might be branded as counter-revolutionaries and be arrested and shot. According to the Communist constitution, opposing the party or socialism is a criminal act. But outside of China, they are not subject to the same restrictions. This is why we have to take the words of the Communists seriously. The Chinese spokesman of the State Council, Yuan Mu, claimed that the demonstrators were seeking to overthrow the socialist state. That is why they had to be suppressed. He was telling the truth. Li Peng said, "If we don't stop this, all our revolutionary martyrs who lost their lives and shed their blood for the revolution will be gone, so we have to. . ."

That is the real reason why Teng Hsiao-ping decided to crack down. But they didn't have to use tanks. Actually, the demonstrators declared that they planned to continue only until June 20. They could have been persuaded, like Chao Tzu-yang tried to do, using sweet talk and being patient.

Aeba: Some were undoubtedly seeking to overthrow the system, but weren't some of the people who demonstrated at Tienanmen requesting changes or reforms within the system?

Dr. Shaw: Some people, like Fang Li-chih and other intellectuals, are fully aware of what they are demanding. But a lot of people only made demands; they didn't know the logical implications of what they were demanding. For instance, they were asking for freedom of thought, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of publication, freedom of assembly, freedom of association, freedom of demonstration. If these things were really fulfilled, it would be a different world. In a revolution, you have leaders and you have followers. The leaders know what they want, but the followers know only vaguely what they are doing. They don't know all the implications. So, you are right. Many people in Tienanmen Square thought they were only asking for some changes, but they didn't know that it was actually a revolution outside of the system. If what they asked for were actually granted, it would create a different world, a different system.

Aeba: When I say that there are different types of people, I mean that there are some realists who know that this action was against the party. But judging from the realities of mainland China today, their requests cannot go beyond a certain limit.

Dr. Shaw: Some revolutions are a onestage affair. In the late Manchu dynasty, Dr. Sun Yat-sen was asking for a one-stage revolution: the Manchus have to go. Some are done in stages. Stage one, Li Peng has to go. The second stage will be something else. Sometimes a revolution cannot be controlled by its leaders--it can be like opening a Pandora's box.

Aeba: Yes, I have to agree.

Dr. Shaw: If the students in New York and Tokyo have their way, especially after the massacre, they are not going to settle for some middle-of-the-road change or revolution.

Aeba: You said that Chao Tzu-yang realized that for the success of the reforms and modernization. . .

Dr. Shaw: For the reforms, they need the intellectuals. So he had to make compromises.

Aeba: But I am sure that Teng Hsiao-ping himself realized that fact a decade or more ago.

Dr. Shaw: I think that there is a generation gap. Li Peng is Russian-trained. In mainland China, you have those who were trained in the West, and those who were trained in the Soviet Union. Teng Hsiao-ping went to France. I think they probably have developed different mentalities that are revealed in times of crisis. Some people are usually quite normal, but in times of crisis their reactions can be different. In the case of Chao Tzu-yang, he is a practical politician and has to deal with things in a practical way. And most of his intellectual supporters are pro West. But Teng Hsiao-ping has always adopted a stance of being above factions. You can have different factions, but he is the grand coordinator, always number one. They all have to count on him. He has the final say. If they all agree with each other, then that can be dangerous, because they may organize to oppose him. So he plays a balancing act with these different factions. But this time I think the students thoroughly embarrassed him during Gorbachev's visit. To lose face in front of the Russians is very embarrassing. The Russians and the Chinese have been enemies for so long, so this time I think the leadership wanted to show the unity, the hope of China. But the sudden appearance of one million students demonstrating in Tienanmen Square caused many of the programs planned for Gorbachev to be cancelled. It was a loss of face. Also, the students were very demanding, and they were too successful. They did not attack anybody, so they gave the government no excuse to retaliate. The government didn't know how to handle this. The worst enemy is the enemy who does not fight back, because it makes it difficult to attack him. It got to the point where people lost patience. After Gorbachev left, they tried to persuade the students, but they refused to listen. The situation was further complicated by Japanese reporters, Taiwan reporters, American reporters--every day they were broadcasting. It made the Chinese lose face to the world. So I think these factors compelled them to reveal their true colors. They have never been democrats; in a democracy, when you face something like this you resign. You have to resign. But in a dictatorship you resort to guns. I think they made a terrible mistake, but maybe that is what Communist dictatorship means. I cannot explain it. It is beyond our comprehension. Even the students were surprised. They thought that the PLA would never open fire on the people. How could the People's Liberation Army fight against the people? And this is why the students abroad were so angry. They were totally disillusioned.