Since President Lee Teng-hui visited Cornell University there has been a 32-month break in progress towards negotiations between the Taiwan and the PRC. Now, following positive noises from both sides before and after Chinese New Year, it seems that negotiations may begin again this year.

The Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) wrote to the mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) on March 5th saying that they would be willing to have leading officers lead a delegation to the PRC in the near future to discuss matters within SEF's remit with ARATS. This was a response to a letter from ARATS on February 24th which proposed that the two sides should at a suitable time restart talks, and said that ARATS was willing to be authorized by the government of the PRC to negotiate procedural matters relating to cross-straits political talks and begin arranging the restart of economic and practical issue negotiations.

This exchange is the first time since the break-off of negotiations that dialogue has been conducted between the two sides. The letter sent from Taiwan on March 5th received a quick and clear response on March 11th with ARATS reiterating that they were willing to invite representatives from the SEF of "a suitable level" to lead economic, cultural or academic missions to the PRC, either to visit or participate in seminars.

The opportunity to restart cross-straits negotiations can be traced back to earlier this year. After taking office in September last year, ROC premier Vincent Siew said that he held hopes that progress could be made in cross-straits relations following Chinese New Year in 1998. In January the chairman of ARATS, Wang Daohan, said to the media that "an early start should be made to the year's work." PRC vice-premier and foreign minister Qian Qichen said during a seminar on January 26th-the third anniversary of "Jiang's Eight Points" that the two sides of the straits should expand exchange and contacts. The vice-chairman of ARATS, Tang Shubei, and Chen Yunlin, director of the PRC's Taiwan Affairs Office, also successively made positive noises.

Similarily, Premier Siew on February 20th said in a political report that the two sides could restart negotiations by staging a second Koo-Wang meeting. He said that any topic that was "conducive to peaceful development and democratic reunification" could be talked about. As for the problems that will grow from exchange that have an enormous impact on people's rights, the two sides have already agreed to bring them onto the agenda and discuss them on a priority basis.

In addition to the expectations of both sides for the new year, the frequent visits of influential Americans to both the PRC and Taiwan this spring have been interpreted as a strong force pushing negotiations. Recently, Anthony Lake, who until last year was a US national security advisor and who was involved in handling the missile crisis that broke out in 1996, visited Taiwan. He said that the US reaction at that time was very clear. If the PRC uses force against Taiwan there will be serious consequences. He felt that some of the PRC's senior leaders think that Taiwan's leaders are taking Taiwan towards independence and that there are some people in Taiwan that believe that the "one China" that the PRC refers to is the People's Republic of China. This kind of pessimism could, he feels, result in a crisis. In order to avoid conflict through misunderstanding, the US hopes that the two sides restart negotiations, and it will not come to any conclusions in advance.

On January 8th and 16th this year missions including a former assistant secretary of defense, and former Secretary of Defense William Perry, visited Taiwan. These also pushed negotiations. The main message brought by the former was a triangular formula-"No independence for Taiwan, renunciation of the use of force by the PRC, US approval." By this formula, Taiwan would guarantee not to seek independence and Beijing would agree to give Taiwan more space internationally. Taipei, for its part, would declare that it is not independent and strengthen cross-straits contacts.

Because he also first visited Beijing and Hong Kong and met with Jiang Zemin, Chi Haotian, Wang Daohan and Tung Chee-hwa, Perry's visit could be interpreted as being a message-bearing mission. In addition to saying that Beijing is willing to restart negotiations without conditions, Perry's main message was that the US hopes that the Taiwan Strait remains stable.

Looking at the series of visits to the PRC and Taiwan by these influential figures from the US, it has to be said that these visits cannot be taken as representing official views. A China expert at the Atlantic Council in the US said that the media should not take the opinions of such visitors as direct messages from the US government. However, a former official at the US State Department who also visited Taiwan pointed out that this type of visitor is able to meet directly with high-level leaders on both sides and is not only able to hear the stance of each side, but can also look into the thinking that it is based on. This is useful to the missions, the US State Department and Congress.

There seems to be a coincidence between the visits since Chinese New Year to Beijing and Taipei by former US officials and the thawing of cross-straits relations. Jason Hu, the ROC Minister for Foreign Affairs, thinks that the US is currently pushing a "win-win-win" policy and that they hope that everyone involved can accept it.

Chiu Chao-lin of the Institute of European and American Studies of the Academia Sinica says that the US is keen to avoid being drawn into another Asian civil war by a crisis in the Taiwan Straits. Although the US constantly says that it is not willing to be an intermediary, it is able to use a variety of private activities to push the restart of negotiations.

The fact that US visitors have repeatedly reiterated "no independence for Taiwan" is seen as another force for accelerating cross-straits negotiations. Kau Lang, a professor in the Department of Politics at National Taiwan University, said that the US clearly sees the key to stability in the Taiwan Strait as being whether or not the independence movement in Taiwan progresses. Last year the DPP saw major successes in county and city magisterial elections. In February, it held an ambitious Mainland Policy Seminar. At the end of this year, elections will be held for national legislators, and for mayors and councillors for Taipei and Kaohsiung cities. This means that the US has been forced to take a serious look at this problem. Wang Daohan once said that for the sake of reunification they could talk with the DPP. Tang Shubei is also to actively promote visits between mayors of cities in the PRC and Taiwan.

A visiting professor at Beijing University and People's University, Chen Yu-chun, said that the KMT has always been dominant in the area of mainland policy but, in the face of the increasing challenge from the DPP, they could take the opportunity to open up new negotiations early. Tsai Wei, assistant researcher in the International Relations Research Center of National Chengchi University, said that people on the political scene in Beijing have predicted that the right to decide policy vis a vis the PRC will be used to win votes. Therefore, for the sake of electoral victory at the end of the year, the KMT may have to restart negotiations .

The two sides will have to start talking eventually but foreign minister Jason Hu thinks that although it seems that there are signs that negotiations are on the cards, spring is not yet here. The two sides have many areas of disagreement on political questions. Even if they did start talking, the PRC is keen to start political talks while Taiwan hopes to start with practical issues. There is still much mutual putting of questions and feeling out to be done. With procedural issues also to be talked about, the road to real negotiations is still a long way off. Signs of a warming of cross-straits relations can be felt, but the development of friendly interaction still depends on the strategies of the two governments.