With such august and imperial associations, it is hardly surprising that the Year of the Dragon is traditionally held to be an auspicious year in which to be born. Even if they know it's only a superstition, a year of the dragon always seems to stimulate a parental urge in Chinese people whenever it rolls around--wherever they may be.
An article in Life magazine last June pointed out that surrogate motherhood is fairly popular among Chinese Americans, who are apt to feel pressured by childlessness. In Southern California, which has a high concentration of overseas Chinese, the practice has become so popular since late last year that "donor wombs" have become hard to find.
And in Singapore, where 76 percent of the population is Chinese, the maternity wards of some private hospitals have been booked solid through the first half of the year, "Lee Hsien Loong, the prime minister's son, has the Chinese character 'dragon' in his name," a Singapore lawyer says only half in jest, "and that's given superstitious people another reason for wanting to have a 'dragon child.'"
For workers in the R.O.C.'s Family Planning Center, the words "Year of the Dragon" have a particularly ominous ring, calling up visions of the last one twelve years ago.
Some 425,000 babies were born on Taiwan in 1976--55,000 more than in the previous year, or 30 times the normal growth rate--giving the family planning center, which was set up twenty years ago, its first taste of what a dragon year can be like.
This time around won't be like the last one, promises Chang Ming-ch'u, deputy director of the Taiwan Province Family Planning Institute. Geomancers say that this year's dragon belongs to the earth element, not a particularly promising combination, which may perhaps cool the ardor of some. And the number of marriages from May to October last year did not show a marked increase over the year before.
"The younger generation has a higher level of education now and is not so likely to blindly follow traditional superstitions," Dr. Chang says.
In Singapore, where the twelve animals of the zodiac have had an equally great effect on the birth rate, people hold another view of the new lunar year. The word for "eight" in Cantonese sounds like that for "prosperity," so on top of being a dragon year, 1988 is doubly auspicious, meaning even more births and marriages. And densely populated Singapore, which has always had excellent family planning, actually welcomes the trend.
The reason for the switch in thinking is chiefly that Singapore is now facing a crisis of population decline, where the next generation will be insufficient to replace the present one. According to Minister of Trade and Industry Lee Hsien Loong, women in Singapore now have an average of only 1.7 children each, which means that each couple in the present generation will be replaced by only three-fourths of a couple in the next. Should the trend continue, the number of young people would decline at the same time as the average age of the population grows older.
The birth rate among Chinese has fallen the fastest of the country's three ethnic groups. In a speech at Chinese New Year last year, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew specially emphasized his hope that Chinese Singaporeans would have more children to arrest the country's population decline.
"The problem lies with the Chinese," Lee Hsien Loong has said, "and the solution rests in their hands."
Judging from current indications, the power of the dragon will make itself felt in Singapore this year. During lunch break, workingwomen with big bellies drop by 130-year-old Queen of Heaven Temple to burn incense and pray to Ma Tsu for a smooth delivery. And while interviewing the directors of several banks, we found that three out of five of the young secretaries who opened the door for us were pregnant. "Everybody wants a dragon baby," one director explained with a smile.
Family planning has been even more effective on Taiwan than in Singapore. The U.S. Population Crisis Commission graded our birth control efforts at 92 out of 100 and ranked the R.O.C. number one among developing countries, ahead of Singapore and South Korea. Family planning workers here were pleased by the recognition, but a little abashed, knowing what lies in store.
Family Planning Director Chang Ming-ch'u is not concerned. He says that the number of babies born in the years 1985 and 1986 was 45,000 less than that needed to maintain the population level, and the reproduction rate was 0.7 (at one, the population stays the same), which signifies negative growth.
"At this rate, the proportion of the elderly in Taiwan's population will increase to 18 percent by the year 2030," he says, "and with poor control--should the birth rate drop too fast--this day will come even sooner." It's not that we don't want the population to decrease, he says; but that we don't want it to decrease too fast, without giving us adequate time to prepare for the problems of the aged. "If the number of dragon children this year were to grow by about 20,000 or 30,000, that would be ideal," he feels.
Those little dragon babies now in their mothers' tummies probably aren't thinking about it, but their future road will be rockier than those of people born in other years. From the moment they're born, they'll have to fight with other infants for crib space. Later they'll have a dozen more kids in class than the other grades, tens of thousands of more competitors in the college entrance exams, and an equal number of contestants in the job market.
It's happened before. It will happen again. It's not that people don't know this or understand it. It's just that they want to have a dragon child.
Elizabeth Hill Hospital in Singapore estimates that 5,000 infants will be delivered at the hospital this year, twice as many as in 1986. An administrative worker there could only exclaim with a sigh, "You can't overlook the effect on the birth rate of culture and tradition."
[Picture Caption]
Welcome, Year of the Dragon!
If the decline in Singapore's birth rate continues, crowded subway scenes such as this may become a thing of the past.
Praying to the goddess Ma Tsu for a "dragon child." The temple is in Singapore.
"You're overloaded!" The goddess holds a Register of Births. (cartoon by Liu Hsing-ch'in)
Super-low discounts attract expectant "dragon mothers."
Have your fortune read--the year of the dragon may bring good luck.
In the country, the traditional thinking of the older generation often influences the attitude of the younger generation toward having children.
The last wave of dragon children has produced a grade with overcrowded classes.
Praying to the goddess Ma Tsu for a "dragon child." The temple is in Singapore.
Praying to the goddess Ma Tsu for a "dragon child." The temple is in Singapore.
"You're overloaded!" The goddess holds a Register of Births. （cartoon by Liu Hsing-ch'in）
Super-low discounts attract expectant "dragon mothers.".
Have your fortune read--the year of the dragon may bring good luck.
In the country, the traditional thinking of the older generation often influences the attitude of the younger generation toward having children.
The last wave of dragon children has produced a grade with overcrowded classes.
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