December Election Produces Winners, Losers, and Questions

In the elections for the Fifth Legislative Yuan in December of 2001, the Democratic Progressive Party, with its advantages as the ruling party and a successful strategy of nominating a realistic number of candidates for their anticipated vote, increased their seats from 70 in the Fourth Legislative Yuan to 87. The DPP can be considered the biggest winner in this election. Meanwhile, the Kuomintang (KMT), formerly the majority party in the legislature, had its biggest success in the city and county executive elections, winning seven of 23 seats, but fell drastically from 123 to 68 seats in the lawmaking body, a decline of nearly 40%. Other noteworthy developments were that the People First Party (PFP) and the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), both participating in elections for the first time, took 46 and 13 seats respectively, becoming key minority parties. Finally, the New Party, many of whose leaders defected to the PFP, fell from 11 legislative seats to only one, and is considered by observers to have effectively disintegrated.

Although the various parties have experienced gains and losses, what remains unchanged from before the election is that the ruling DPP still does not control a majority in the Legislative Yuan, and remains a "minority government." However, adding the seats of the TSU, which is sympathetic to the DPP's nativist platform, to the DPP total leaves the DPP only 13 seats short of the 113 needed for a majority. As a result many in the public have high expectations that there will be less infighting between the executive and legislative branches. According to a public opinion survey conducted by the Commercial Times, nearly half of citizens express optimism that the economy will take a turn for the better in the wake of the election, and believe that the election results will have a positive impact on political stability. In fact, the stock market has been rising steadily, and is more than 1000 points higher than it was before the election, suggesting the optimistic expectations people have for the new political situation.

Putting high hopes on this election, four days before the vote President Chen Shui-bian put forward five main principles for his proposed "National Security Alliance": to agree on national identity, achieve a breakthrough in cross-strait relations, promote democratic reforms, spark economic development, and eliminate social and political cleavages. He had hoped to achieve a consensus on these points between ruling and opposition parties. So observers are watching closely to see who will be in the new cabinet and whether the Alliance can take stable long-term shape.

In terms of cabinet selection, because the DPP is now the largest party in the Legislative Yuan, both KMT chairman Lien Chan and PFP chairman James Soong announced not long after the election that they would respect the previously disputed right of President Chen to choose the premier, and that the KMT and PFP would not deliberately create difficulties on this account. However, they said, the DPP will have to take full responsibility for future policies, while the opposition parties will play their role of monitoring and balancing the government.

Now that the right of the DPP to organize the cabinet is undisputed, commentators believe that the chances of current premier Chang Chun-hsiung (a DPP member) remaining in office are much higher. However, it is also true that President Chen has promised to give the cabinet a new look. Thus it is expected that there will be an extensive reshuffle, and it is widely rumored that a woman will take the position of vice premier.

Meanwhile, the National Security Alliance is still being organized. President Chen hopes that he can attract enough members of other parties to the Alliance to create a stable majority in the Legislative Yuan, which would make governing much easier than before the election, when the opposition parties controlled the lawmaking body.

Now that the DPP plus TSU are only 13 seats short of a majority, many believe that the National Security Alliance will fall into place. However, both Lien Chan and James Soong, in separate meetings with President Chen, refused to bring their parties into the Alliance. In fact, in a meeting of their own, Lien and Soong reached agreement on four points: (1) to not participate in the Alliance or accept any seats in the cabinet; (2) to play the role of loyal opposition; (3) to pursue the national interest and well-being of all citizens; and (4) to establish a policy coordination mechanism. They are seeking a politics based on parties, as opposed to the DPP's idea for a trans-party grouping.

Those who oppose the National Security Alliance, such as James Soong, have argued that it is redundant to establish a cross-party cooperative mechanism when party politics already exists. Proponents of the Alliance, such as DPP legislator Lin Chuo-shui, argue that although the DPP is now the largest party in the Legislative Yuan, and there is no longer much risk of a cabinet crisis, the Executive Yuan still requires the support of a legislative majority for its policies. Getting the Alliance up and running will be helpful to national security and social stability.

However, many academics do not feel the National Security Alliance has such a bright future. Given that the KMT and PFP have already refused to participate, building a coalition with individual legislators can only create a fragile majority. Chou Yu-jen, a professor of public administration at Taipei University, notes that in the past when the KMT controlled the Executive Yuan, they had an absolute majority in the legislature, but this did not mean legislation passed smoothly or efficiently. A majority is not enough for promotion of policy, and the only sound foundation for cross-party cooperation will be sincerely facing up to differences and communicating in good faith.

Those presently involved in the operations of the Alliance express optimism. Yu Shyi-kun, secretary-general to the president, says that the Alliance will not be given up just because the main opposition parties have rejected it. Instead, the Alliance will work to win individual cooperation from opposition legislators in the future. DPP secretary-general Wu Nai-jen opines that it will not be difficult for the Alliance to achieve a legislative majority. He says forthrightly: "The top priority is getting a legislative majority, and it is only secondary who gets what positions."

Currently, the position of President of the Legislative Yuan (sometimes called "speaker") is a bargaining chip the DPP will hold out for cooperation in the Alliance. If members of other parties intend to run for the post, they will be asked to make some concessions on the issue of the Alliance in return for DPP support. Although President Chen has emphasized that all members of the Alliance can retain their original party affiliations, if a large number of KMT legislators defect to the DPP, and the long rumored split in the KMT becomes a reality, the establishment of the Alliance will nonetheless have a major impact in terms of realignment of political parties.

New legislators will be sworn in on February 1, 2002. Until then the political situation will remain murky. In recent days Executive Yuan secretary-general Chiou I-jen has again proposed revising the Constitution to create a presidential system, or to create a genuine "dual executive" system (the system used in France), in order to once and for all resolve constitutional power struggles between the executive and legislative bodies. Whatever happens, the hope of all citizens is that the parties will work together to create a better Taiwan.