Remember the big earthquake that hit Haiti in early 2010? It was a 7.0 magnitude quake that resulted in 220,000 deaths. Close on its heels, a temblor of staggering strength (8.8 magnitude) rocked Chile a month later. Fortunately for Chile, stringent earthquake safety codes developed in the wake of the record 9.5 earthquake of 1960 limited the number of deaths to under 900.

But a string of major earthquakes like this may well remind us of scenes of the ground opening up in the movie 2012. Moreover, there has been unusual weather around the globe this year, such as a severe drought in southwestern China, intense storms and blizzards all around the northern hemisphere, and catastrophic rains in the southern hemisphere. That was only in the beginning of the year. The onset of summer brought with it a global heat wave, with repeated record highs: there have even been brush fires around Moscow, engulfing the city with haze. These sundry catastrophes make the long-bandied-about 2012 doomsday prophecy seem more credible, engendering anxiety and trepidation in even more people.

The chief source of the so-called 2012 doomsday prophecy is the calendar of an ancient civilization-the Maya. And the reason the Mayan calendar is regarded particularly highly is because of its accuracy and closeness to modern scientific principles. The fact that the Maya had no telescopes or computers makes their knowledge that much more mysterious and distinctive, adding to its apocalyptic distinction.

We may not know the causes for certain, but extremes in weather are a clear and present nightmare for many folks. Below left is a scene from last March's blizzard in Scotland, and on the facing page is an image from last April's drought in northern India.

When the Spaniards conquered Central and South America in the 16th century, they burned most of the cultural artifacts kept by the ancient Aztec and Mayan civilizations. But several documents survived. Among them is the Dresden Codex, the last page of which describes an apocalyptic scenario in which mankind is to be devastated in a flood.

The codex does not clearly describe the exact date of this apocalypse, but another book of prophecy, the Annals of Cuautitlan, mentions that the world humans live in is destroyed once every 3,740 years, and so far has gone through four such destructions-flood, wind, fire, and fire-rain. The fifth and final period started in 3113 BC, and after one Great Cycle (5,125 years) it will end with the death of the sun. And the final day, if translated into the Western calendar, will fall on December 21, 2012.

Maurice Cotterell, an engineer and amateur scientist who researches the Mayan civilization, discovered a mysterious number that kept appearing on many ancient Mayan temples and steles: 1,366,560. Surmising that this number represented a count of days, he found it was equivalent to 3,740 years.

Based on this, Cotterell applied it to the cycle of the sun's magnetic field. He claims that the sun's magnetic poles will reverse once every 3,740 years, and the Earth's magnetic field will in turn be influenced and undergo changes.

For example, the mammoth, which fell extinct between 9,000 and 12,000 years ago, was, according to Cotterell, once a tropical animal, yet their remains are found mostly in what are now cold areas like Siberia and Alaska, showing that the climate in these areas changed abruptly and drastically.

Extrapolating this line of thinking, we find that if the Earth's magnetic field is indeed affected by that of the sun, resulting in a magnetic pole reversal, much of life on earth will be unable to adapt quickly enough to the sudden massive climate change, leading to mass extinction. This is the general idea of the 2012 doomsday prophecy.

Our knowledge about the universe is severely limited. Above left is a composite image of the planets in our solar system taken by various space probes; on the facing page is an artist's impression of stellar flares on the red dwarf star EV Lacertae; at lower right is a solar prominence photographed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory space probe launched in February.

Cotterell states his claims with confidence, but what is the reality of this issue being discussed around the world?

"There are now many who are standing up to debunk this Mayan doomsday prophecy!"

So says Lin Chong-pin, former deputy defense minister and currently a professor in the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, who is a keen student of doomsday prophecies. He cites last October's Daily Telegraph article "2010 Is Not the End of the World, Mayan Elder Insists," which states the opinion of Mayan elder Apolinario Chile Pixtun: "[T]he doomsday theories spring from Western, not Mayan, ideas." To the Maya, 2012 has no inauspicious meaning, much less the "end of the world"; it just marks the end of an old calendric cycle and the beginning of a new one.

Perhaps the Maya didn't mean to predict the end of the world. But this doesn't mean the Earth will rest easy.

"In 2012, the solar system's oscillating orbit will intersect with the galactic plane," claims Lin. He explains that just as Earth revolves around the sun once a year, the solar system orbits the center of the Milky Way Galaxy once every 260 million years. But as the solar system circles the galactic center, it oscillates above and below the galaxy's equatorial plane, with each oscillation taking 26,000 years. The next cycle is set to start in 2012, Lin asserts.

In other words, around 2012, Lin claims, the solar system will pass through the galaxy's equatorial plane, causing an alignment between the Earth, the sun and the supermassive black hole at the center of galaxy. The combined magnetism of these three celestial bodies, when aligned, will affect the Earth's magnetic field, he argues.

How great would such an impact be? Will it be so negligible as to be imperceptible? Or earth-shakingly serious? Though scientists still debate this issue, Lin, who is inclined toward a Western New Age outlook, reminds us not to dismiss this possibility.

Our knowledge about the universe is severely limited. Above left is a composite image of the planets in our solar system taken by various space probes; on the facing page is an artist's impression of stellar flares on the red dwarf star EV Lacertae; at lower right is a solar prominence photographed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory space probe launched in February. (reproduced from NASA's website)

"The recent spate of natural disasters has in fact been triggered by the influence of the Earth's magnetic field," Lin maintains. The galactic plane is where the populations of stars are at their densest, which would cause maximal perturbance of the solar system. Naturally, the Earth will feel the effect.

"From now until 2012, there will be many cataclysms. They won't necessarily occur at once, and will not necessarily stop abruptly after December 21, 2012. They will gradually increase in frequency and severity, then slowly return to normal."

Lin has been watching these trends for a long time, and has divided catastrophes into four major categories: subsurface catastrophes, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis; surface catastrophes, such as extremes in weather (heat and cold, drought and flood, intense storms, and so forth); catastrophes from space, like severe solar storms; and those of uncertain origin, such as last year's undersea collision between British and French submarines, the collision of a US nuclear sub with a naval vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, and the first air crash involving an Airbus A330, which resulted in more than 200 deaths.

"Currently the mainstream media are focusing on global warming, but this only explains climatological anomalies. How, then, do we explain the other three categories?"

Lin claims that earthquakes and volcanic eruptions have increased in frequency in recent years, and the reason for this may be that Earth's magnetic field has destabilized and is weakening (in the past 100 years, the Earth's magnetism has dropped by 7% in strength). This perhaps can explain abnormal behavior in animals that rely on the magnetic field for navigation: missing colonies of bees, lost migratory birds, and more beachings of whales and dolphins.

Recently scientists have discovered that magma under the earth's crust shifts from the equator outward, engendering concerns that it may cause anomalies in ocean currents above the earth's crust that in turn trigger climate changes.

"Global warming can't affect the movement of magma deep under the earth's crust, and it can't account for the frequency of seismic and volcanic activity," says Lin. Anthropogenic global warming can only be applied to climatic anomalies, but the overall anomalies must be looked at in a larger, deeper framework-the 2012 celestial cycle and changes in the Earth's magnetism-before the whole picture can be seen.

Set against the 4.5 billion years since the Earth's formation, the entire history of humankind accounts for a tiny fraction of this time. Instead of worrying about an unpredictable future, why not seize life with gusto and pass each day happily? Shown above is the sunrise at Hualien's Qixingtan on New Year's Day 2010.

Probing further, how serious would such "Earth changes" be, if true? Would they cause the magnetic poles to reverse? Nobody can say. Yet Lin believes that even a minor magnetic pole shift should not be taken lightly: it could cause instability in electronic transmissions, weakening of biological immune systems, or more frequent tectonic movements (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc.), and even affect popular will. Disturbances could emerge in an endless stream.

In addition to an unstable, weakening magnetic field, scientists have found that the magnetosphere, a magnetic bubble that surrounds and protects our planet, is gradually thinning.

In late 2008, NASA made a startling announcement: a hole four times the width of the Earth had appeared in the Earth's magnetosphere. Whether the hole in our protective shield would allow in more harmful particles and rays from space is another subject of contention.

NASA's warnings don't stop there. In June, the agency published an article on its Science News website entitled "As the Sun Awakens, NASA Keeps a Wary Eye on Space Weather." The article says, "Earth and space are about to come into contact in a way that's new to human history.... 'The sun is waking up from a deep slumber, and in the next few years we expect to see much higher levels of solar activity.'" To prepare in advance, a team of government policymakers, researchers, legislators and journalists has met regularly in Washington over the last four years to study and discuss the issue.

It is well known that solar storms reach their peak intensity every nine to 12 years. The problem is that our high-tech society, despite its continuing advancement, is in fact quite vulnerable, and such celestial disturbances have the potential to cripple our tech-dependent society at one blow.

For instance, a solar storm that occurred on Halloween of 2003 caused power outages in northern Europe, forced airplanes to change course, and damaged the US$640 million satellite ADEOS-2. Scientists predict that the next solar storms will take place around 2012; moreover, they will be more intense. And with the frailty of the Earth's magnetosphere, the earth may well see major disruptions in telecommunications, more flight re-routing, disruptions in power supplies, and other crises involving electronic operations, from global financial trading to heart pacemakers.

We may not know the causes for certain, but extremes in weather are a clear and present nightmare for many folks. Below left is a scene from last March's blizzard in Scotland, and on the facing page is an image from last April's drought in northern India.

In light of the disparate pieces of archaeological evidence and cutting-edge science, Lin believes that 2012 will not be doomsday. The Earth will keep turning, mankind will keep on; the only difference would be the possibility of greater frequency and severity of natural disasters.

If it does happen, how should we deal with the changes?

"We can't stop winter from coming, but we can put on warm clothes to deal with the cold," Lin analogizes.

As NASA holds meetings, monitors the situation and launches probes such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory with a view to providing an early warning system and making thorough contingency plans, Lin calls on governments to be better prepared, training for every conceivable disaster contingency, while also drawing upon Taiwan's ample disaster-preparedness knowledge for "disaster relief diplomacy."

As for us as individuals, Lin reminds us that we can't know the future for certain. What we can do is not waste time pointlessly worrying; instead we should calm our minds, read good books, listen to music, practice calligraphy, meditate, or do some gardening. Keep your spirits up, keep yourself in good physical condition, and do things that make you happy. "The greatest source of joy is helping others!" he says.

Having been involved in both religious and scientific circles for years, Chen Kuo-gen, physics professor at Soochow University and chairman of the Om-Ar-Hone Buddhist Foundation, states that regarding so-called "Earth changes," the universe and nature have their cyclical patterns, and the Earth has already undergone many massive changes since its formation 4.5 billion years ago, bringing a great impact to living things. This has nothing to do with divine will, and there is no need to pontificate with ethical platitudes like "good people earn good karma."

But he cautions us not to underestimate ourselves: "Despite human frailty, we have a certain degree of effect on the universe." If everyone can maintain good thoughts, we can transform and reconcile the situation so that should a catastrophe strike, at least we can join together to weather the storm. This is the only means of surmounting the disaster.

Lee Hsin-ping, renowned author and advertiser, has a particular interpretation of the 2012 prophecy, equating possible future catastrophes with the "kicks" in the movie Inception: "Through such 'kicks,' we can give our souls a greater level of awareness!" She also sees the various 2012 prophecies as different "editions," stressing that everyone can make their own choices.

Lee quotes Indian guru Osho from his book Courage: The Joy of Living Dangerously: "Don't call it uncertainty, call it wonder. Don't call it insecurity, call it freedom.... In total freedom, with all the possibilities opening, nothing fixed, you will have to be aware; there's no other choice." By realizing the feelings these doomsday prophecies give us, we can elevate and transform ourselves. This is what's most important.

Thus, no matter whether 2012 brings providence or doom, you will have started a new life for yourself!

Our knowledge about the universe is severely limited. Above left is a composite image of the planets in our solar system taken by various space probes; on the facing page is an artist's impression of stellar flares on the red dwarf star EV Lacertae; at lower right is a solar prominence photographed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory space probe launched in February.

(above) The movie 2012 is based in the idea that solar storms can trigger earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. This worldwide hit is a typical Hollywood-style movie, with action, special effects and complex emotional entanglements. But it did little to settle the varied beliefs about the year 2012.

Former deputy defense minister Lin Chong-pin is deeply interested in the 2012 prophecy. He believes that the cycles of heavenly bodies can affect the Earth's magnetism, but this does not mean the end of the world is coming. People just need to be prepared in order to minimize the effect of any disaster. The big quake in Chile earlier this year is a prime example of the effect of good preparedness.

(facing page) There have been numerous doomsday prophecies throughout Western history. The 2012 prophecy is merely the latest, requiring us to face the facts squarely with calm discussion to dispel uncertainties. Pictured here is last May's volcanic eruption at the Eyjafjallajokull glacier in Iceland.