To explore these questions, we offer several reports, as well as an Internet opinion survey. We have discovered many things that people in Taiwan might not have expected.
The presidential election scheduled for March will be the first ever direct election for the nation's leader. It has great historical significance, and everyone is being encouraged to vote. As the saying goes, "Don't let your rights sleep."
But for the vast majority of overseas Chinese, there are countless obstacles on the dream-path to exercising their right to choose the president. They want to wake up, but they can't seem to. . . .
Like a collapsing stock market, estimates of the number of overseas Chinese expected to come back to vote in the presidential election started high and then dropped rapidly. Initial guesses ran as high as 100,000; now it is anticipated only a few thousand will do so.
The Election and Recall Law governing the election for president and vice president states: Persons residing overseas, who are least 20 years of age, who have had legal residence in Taiwan for at least four consecutive months, who hold valid ROC passports, and who register within the prescribed time limit, shall be able to return to the country to vote in the presidential election.
So how many potential overseas Chinese voters are there? According to the Overseas Chinese Affairs Commission, there are currently about 260,000 overseas Chinese eligible to register for the presidential election. This figure was arrived at by starting with the number of people who "formerly had legal residence in Taiwan but then moved abroad," minus the number of minors (people below 20) and deceased persons. (The latter two figures were calculated on the basis of the percentage of non-adult persons and the death rate in Taiwan.)
In responses to a survey conducted by the OCAC, many eligible overseas Chinese said they wanted to come back and vote. In the US, the figure was 53% of eligible overseas Chinese, while it was 20-plus percent in Thailand and the Philippines. Based on a rough average of 40%, the OCAC concluded that as many as 100,000 of the 260,000 persons eligible might return to Taiwan to cast ballots.
Benjamin Lu, Taiwan's representative in the US, was even more optimistic in an estimate he made last December while on a trip back to Taiwan. He guessed that 300,000 people living in the US would vote in the presidential election. (His guess exceeded the theoretical limit of 260,000 because he also considered the number of ROC citizens in the US who still have legal residence in Taiwan, and thus are not included in the estimate of 260,000 eligible "overseas Chinese." This point will be explained in greater detail below.)
Information bombs
Overseas Chinese have naturally been enthusiastic about the possibility of participating in the Chinese people's first chance in 5,000 years of political development to select the nation's top figure. But there is a huge gap between desire and action.
"I think that the number who will actually come back will be very small, probably not even 10,000," estimates John H. Chang, minister for Overseas Chinese Affairs. Indeed, people have not been very active about registering.
That the number of people who will return is much smaller than estimated is not due to any failure of the OCAC to make the necessary information available. Beginning last November, the OCAC and government offices abroad have sponsored more than 200 seminars to explain the process. In one small European country with only 30 or so overseas Chinese, the local OCAC representative personally notified each one by phone.
Besides using traditional channels such as advertisements in newspapers and magazines, the OCAC also has been putting out the word through call-in programs on satellite TV and the Internet, both highly innovative avenues.
In terms of services, the OCAC has gotten China Airlines and EVA Air, as well as several top hotels in Taipei (including the Hyatt, Ambassador, and Fortuna) to offer special discounts to anyone holding a Notification of Approval of Registration to Vote in the Election for the 9th Term of the Presidency of the ROC.
A plane overestimate
When it was first rumored that as many as 30,000 overseas Chinese from the Los Angeles area alone would come back to vote, the airlines had to immediately begin trying trying to figure out how to cope with this load. There are 30 direct flights per week from LA to Taipei; if each plane holds about 400 people, then the airlines could carry only 12,000 people to Taipei per week. Thus, even if every seat on every plane were reserved only for people going back to vote, the first voters would have to leave LA almost three weeks before election day in order to ferry 30,000 people to Taiwan in time to cast their ballots. Since no one would want to take three weeks vacation just to participate in the election, the airlines immediately had to begin arranging additional flights and changing schedules.
But the airlines discovered, after making their preparations, that the anticipated challenge was not to become reality. A survey done in January of LA-area airlines and travel agencies by a reporter for the World Journal found that very few people were making reservations to fly to Taipei in March. On the contrary, because of the extended vacation in Taiwan around Tomb Sweeping Day, the flow of people will be in the opposite direction--there are few remaining available seats on flights from Taipei to Los Angeles at that time.
There are 1000 emigrant families from Taiwan in Christchurch, New Zealand. The OCAC sponsored a seminar in January to explain the voting procedure for the presidential election. Quite a few people--perhaps 60 or 70--attended. But after listening to the various regulations for registration and returning to Taiwan to vote, only a couple of people remained interested enough to ask further questions.
Complain for half an hour before booking
The main reason why so few people are acting on their stated desire to vote is that it is simply too difficult to do so.
Huang Chen-hua lives in Arizona in the US, and is director of research and development for Motorola. He just laughed when his family members in Taiwan asked him if he would return for the election.
"It's impossible. I have no time off then," he said over the phone. Of course he and others in his circle of overseas Chinese friends are concerned about Taiwan's future, but very few are all that passionate about politics. Most, perhaps 80%, are just like Huang: "Unless participation is made readily available, such as through mail-in absentee ballots, then we cannot possibly participate."
Guillermo Shih-min Chang, who has emigrated to Costa Rica, expresses extreme dissatisfaction. To have to return in person to vote is the most ridiculous thing in the world, he argues. It merely makes things hard for people, forcing otherwise willing overseas residents to reluctantly abandon their right to vote.
"When the regulations were announced, all the overseas Chinese in this part of the States were up in arms, and felt that the rules were too unreasonable," says Tai Chi, a convener of the New Party of San Francisco, who adds that few people will return under such strict terms. "Those people who are going back still vent their spleens for half an hour on the phone before finally making their reservations. They are very agitated, as if they were about to set off to martyr themselves in battle."
He estimates that no more people will go back for the election than normally go back for National Day (October 10). He reasons, "Most of the people who go on National Day are old folks from Hong Kong, Macao, and Southeast Asia. But they don't have the right to vote in this election." Therefore he remains less than optimistic, and his New Party has reserved only 500 seats with China Airlines.
Too expensive a ballot
A local airline representatives in LA notes that the economy has not been very strong in southern California, and overseas Chinese have been affected as well. Few people have the money for a special trip just to vote. Recently there was a wave of people going back to Taiwan when the government allocated additional pension funds for retired civil servants and pensioners went back to claim their cash. "But there's no money to be made going back for the presidential election. In fact, you have to pay for your own ticket. Who would be so stupid?" asks this person from the airline industry.
No wonder legislator Chen Hung-chi discovered when he went to America to set up an election support group for Lee Teng-hui that overseas Chinese had little interest in his argument that "only by going back to vote, understanding elections in Taiwan, and getting a sense of the political atmosphere in Taiwan can one be of assistance to the country." All they want to know is, "Will the KMT pay for my ticket?"
One elderly woman originally wanted to return to vote, but was dissuaded from doing so by her daughter, who still lives in Taiwan. Her daughter's reasoning was that the situation right before the election would be chaotic. What if the PRC chose that moment to "test" a few more missiles? The best time to come back will be after the election, when everything stabilizes.
An even more frustrating obstacle to overseas Chinese is the complexity of the regulations. For example, overseas residents are required to go to the place of their last legal residence to register. But many people have found that since they left Taiwan, the administrative districts have been redrawn, so unless they can figure out where to register, they had best give up any plans of returning to vote.
Few votes, loss of face?
Last November a Chinese-language paper in Toronto ran a special column criticizing Taiwan for making it so difficult for overseas Chinese to participate in the presidential election. The author asked, why not just set up a polling station right in Toronto? On voting day all the parties can send people to monitor the voting, and the results could be sent back to Taiwan in plenty of time. Those living in remote areas could vote by mail.
He concluded, "If election officials and those in charge of overseas Chinese affairs won't even do this, people will wonder about their motives. Are there actually technical problems, or is the real reason that they are worried that the outcome would be very embarrassing to the Kuomintang?"
John H. Chang rejects such charges on behalf of the OCAC: "We are a government agency, not a support group for the ruling party, so how could we be under pressure over votes?"
That being the case, why are the rules set up to make it so hard for overseas Chinese to vote?
Chang explains: "Of course, from the OCAC's point of view, we naturally try to maximize the rights and privileges of the overseas Chinese. But we also have to keep in mind the domestic situation. If we did not keep reasonable limits on overseas Chinese participation in local politics, we never would have gotten these rights written into the constitution at all."
Keep your troubles to yourself
When the National Assembly was amending the constitution in April of 1994, the constitutional reform committee of the KMT virtually unanimously opposed giving overseas Chinese the right to vote in Taiwan's elections. Also, many citizens made it clear to their locally elected assembly members that citizens would mount a petition campaign to impeach any assembly member who supported voting rights for overseas Chinese.
People opposed to giving overseas Chinese the right to vote mainly do so because there are so many overseas Chinese, yet they pay no taxes, and do not have to do military service, so they should not enjoy the right to vote. Moreover, from the point of view of fairness and uniformity, if overseas Chinese were allowed to vote from abroad, then why shouldn't citizens in Taiwan be able to vote wherever they happen to be living at the time, or soldiers be allowed to vote where they are based (rather than having to return to their places of legal residence as the law prescribes)? As one National Assembly member declared, "If overseas Chinese really feel that great a sense of participation, then let them show it by coming back to vote."
Other reasons for opposing overseas Chinese voting rights include fears that "overseas Chinese may be induced by Communist China to create disorder in Taiwan." One National Assembly member asserted that overseas Chinese participation in voting for president would surely lead to chaos, while the worst that could happen should the assembly fail to put this right in the constitution would only be facing criticism from overseas Chinese. "If they want to be troublesome, let's keep the trouble outside, not let it in!"
At that time, major newspapers in Taiwan carried arguments pro and con on the issue. The Central Daily News, organ of the ruling KMT, argued that there would be great historic significance to putting the right to vote of overseas Chinese into the constitution. It would reflect the government's attention to the fact of growing outward mobility of residents of Taiwan. The paper argued that it is important to protect their political rights and to keep their loyalty. Moreover, it said, if overseas Chinese have the right to vote, this would dispel any fears that the election of a president only by residents of Taiwan would imply that he (or she) was only the "President of Taiwan" (an idea that suggests Taiwan independence).
Diluting "Taiwanese consciousness"?
At that time the Commercial Times opposed giving overseas Chinese the right to vote, mainly because of the complex technical problems involved. "Permitting overseas voting would delay the results of the election, which, given Taiwan's current conditions, could be a time bomb. Also, if there were a very intense and close race, so that in the end the decisive votes came from overseas, this kind of outcome could unleash a political storm with incalculable consequences."
The Taiwan Times offered even more dire warnings. It saw attempts to include overseas Chinese in the presidential election as a plot to dilute the consciousness for sovereignty among Taiwanese. If a large number of overseas Chinese were given the vote, the paper contended, "it would even be possible for a communist or a communist sympathizer to be elected president over the people of Taiwan, at which point Taiwanese would have to rise in revolt, turning Taiwan into a land of blood and tears."
At the time this debate was raging, the political atmosphere looked largely unfavorable for overseas Chinese to get the right to vote. Little did anyone expect that at the last meeting of the KMT's constitutional reform committee--with committee members from central and southern Taiwan rushing off early to catch planes home--overseas Chinese members would push through an amendment giving overseas Chinese the right to vote in the presidential election.
Part of the reason for this dramatic turnabout was that President Lee Teng-hui happened to be on a trip to South Africa at that time. At a banquet held by overseas Chinese, he discovered that 90% of the 8,000 overseas Chinese in South Africa came from Taiwan. "They have done many things for Taiwan, and earned much money for our country. If we do not let overseas Chinese vote in the presidential election, I wouldn't be able to face them," Lee declared.
Thus, in the end, the constitution was amended to give "citizens of the Republic of China living in free areas" the right to vote. However, at the same time, the National Assembly built a sharp "technical" reduction in: Overseas Chinese must "return to the country" in person in order to exercise their right.
Safety over convenience
"Allowing people living overseas to vote, but not giving them the right to vote overseas, is a result connected to the political environment and the democratic climate in Taiwan," says Chao Lin, secretary-general of the OCAC. The current design is very inconvenient, but it is the safest. Because Taiwan lacks diplomatic relations with many states, points out Chao, "If voting were allowed overseas, if there were any irregularities like theft of a ballot box, how would we be able to prosecute the offenders?"
Although most overseas Chinese are critical of the regulations, some approve. "I can personally accept these conditions," says Cecilia Yen, a contact person for the New Party of San Francisco. Although it is troublesome to return to Taiwan to vote, this makes it easier to prevent stuffing the ballot boxes, so it is more fair. Although the requirement to have had legal residence in Taiwan for at least four consecutive months is also stringent, she also finds this acceptable: "People should have deep feelings for Taiwan, and be politically aware. Otherwise, just anybody could vote for president, and that would be dangerous."
Perhaps many long-term residents abroad don't really care very much that they cannot vote for the president of the ROC. It is also true, as John H. Chang notes, that "many countries, like Indonesia or Thailand, have strict rules forbidding dual citizenship, so they would never be willing to let their citizens vote for the president of another country. We have to take their positions into account."
But this has left many older overseas Chinese who still maintain close ties to Taiwan out in the cold. Take for example the many members of the Academia Sinica who are deeply concerned about scholarship in Taiwan and who have many suggestions to make; or the members of the OCAC, appointed by the president, who devote themselves to working with overseas Chinese; or the overseas Chinese members of the Legislative Yuan, who would lose their qualifications to be overseas Chinese legislators should they establish residence in Taiwan.
Abandoned overseas citizens
Moreover, rules meant to restrict overseas Chinese participation in politics and prevent overseas votes from "diluting" public opinion in Taiwan also unintentionally are impairing the exercise of the rights of some people who were not the main targets of the legislation to begin with.
Virtually all government officials posted overseas will miss out on the election, despite being citizens who pay their taxes and fulfill their military service obligations. Overseas students also are affected: Last December, a group of students in England protested against the requirement that Taiwan citizens living abroad had to return home to cast their ballots.
"Giving people overseas the right to vote for president may look like a favor, but as far as we're concerned the rules are obstructive," argues Kuo Li-hsi, currently studying for a PhD at the University of London. He says that the Legislative Yuan and National Assembly can argue all they want about whether overseas Chinese should have the right to vote, but overseas students are not "overseas Chinese." They are citizens who are merely temporarily abroad. There should be no problem about their status, he concludes, and the government should not deprive them of their rights by making it impossible to vote from wherever they happen to be studying.
Trying to win the right of "absentee voting," he and several classmates wrote letters, made telephone calls, and used E-mail to start up a protest petition and spur discussion of the issue. On December 13, they delivered their petition to Taiwan's representative office in the UK.
Responding to such complaints, John H. Chang explains, "We really do want to make things technically easier for citizens living overseas, even including mail-in absentee ballots. But so far absentee ballots are not even permitted within Taiwan itself, so any efforts to arrange such a system would run up against the provisions of the Election and Recall Law." Yet, he continues, the idea of absentee ballots should not be abandoned simply by assuming the worst: "I hope that we can overcome the technical problems and improve the situation."
Bigger than they think
In fact, if one adds in the number of citizens living overseas who still have their official legal residence in Taiwan, the number of eligible voters is far in excess of 260,000.
Maysing H. Yang, director of the DPP's Department of Foreign Affairs, states that there are nearly one million people from Taiwan in the US alone. Even if you discount the number not yet of voting age, you're going to end up with a lot more than 260,000.
The OCAC explains that the government agencies in charge of legal residence registration have not yet changed the residence status of many people who have emigrated. Therefore, statistically speaking they are still considered domestic, not overseas, voters.
Cecilia Yen, whom the New Party wanted to nominate as a legislator representing overseas Chinese, is a case in point. Twenty years ago she went to the States to study, and has been there ever since. Yet she is still on the books in Taiwan as having her legal residence in the country. Ironically, she was for this reason disqualified by the Central Election Commission for failing to meet the qualifications for overseas Chinese legislators, which bar such legislators from having legal residence in Taiwan.
Most of those who have moved abroad in recent years or sent their children to be "little overseas students" travel back to Taiwan regularly. There are especially large numbers of such "overseas citizens" in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada.
Nevertheless, given current realities, politicians are pretty clear in their minds about how many votes can be expected from overseas Chinese.
"The DPP is not in a position to put up the manpower and money that would be necessary to bring party supporters back to vote, nor can we ask people to take this burden on themselves. We can only encourage people to come back to witness this 'historic spectacle,'" says Chang Yu-jen, director of organizational affairs for the DPP. It is hard to get a handle on overseas votes, and it is far more effective for the party to devote its resources to Taiwan than try to focus on a small number of votes scattered over an enormous area. "In market terminology, we can only 'service' the existing overseas constituency, but there is little room for 'expansion' or 'development' of that market."
The battlefield is in Taiwan
Thus far, only Wang Chien-hsuan (once the New Party candidate for president) has made a special trip to the US expressly connected to the presidential election. The idea was, in the tradition of Sun Yat-sen's revolutionary efforts, to begin by consolidating the support of the overseas Chinese community. But since then Wang has withdrawn from the race as the New Party has opted to shift its support to the Lin-Hau ticket.
As for other candidates, Lin Yang-kang has an English version of his global information station, and his running mate Hau Pei-tsun did an interview with a Chinese-language radio station in Los Angeles.
DPP nominee Peng Ming-min had planned to make a trip to the Philippines and the US in January in order to enhance his domestic standing through a demonstration of his international reputation and support network. However, the North American leg of the trip had to be canceled, despite the disappointment of overseas Chinese there. For one thing, because the US Congress was in recess, it would have been impossible for Peng to meet with as many congressmen as he would have liked, and the trip may thus have created a completely opposite impression from the one intended. Also, there are still many pressing matters to be attended to in Taiwan. As Chang Yu-jen says, "The general cannot leave the field of battle, and the battlefield is Taiwan."
If Taiwan is the battlefield, will overseas Chinese in the end be left watching helplessly from the sidelines, or will they throw themselves into this historic fight? The road home to vote may not be an easy one to take, but it may be just as difficult to stay away.
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