A young factory manager of a fairly well-known agricultural chemical company in central Taiwan watches the protesters demonstrating outside with signs saying "Get Out" and "Give Us Back Our Environment," and he knows the only solution is temporarily to shut down.

In 1970 as a high school senior, this future factory manager faced the crucial decision of selecting what field of study to pursue in college before taking the national college entrance exams. He had a strong desire to study music and possessed adequate training, but his parents insisted that he study a field with a "future" instead. He abandoned his dream and tested into chemical engineering, the hottest department at the time, entered the agricultural chemical company after graduation, and fought his way up to his present position.

Seventeen years later, confronted with the prospect of a work stoppage and still attached to music, he thinks back on his fateful decision with grim irony.

Meanwhile, as more and more families acquire the means to have their children learn how to play a musical instrument, music majors, long considered near-certain candidates for pauperhood, have found their pay and their social status considerably enhanced.

Last year's sure winners face tough going. Yesterday's ugly ducklings are the darlings of today.

If "hot" subjects can turn out "cool" and "cool" ones "hot," what sort of thermometer should a high school student consult in deciding where to place his chips?

"The vast majority of high school students choose the fields that seem to have the best prospects at present, and don't consider about the future," indicates Hung Jung-chao, an associate professor at National Taiwan Normal University and an expert in manpower resources development. He believes that students should take economic and social developments as their standard in educational investment.

Taiwan's economic structure changed during the 1960's from an agricultural to an industrial base, and its core industries have developed during the 1980's from labor-intensive to capital- and technology-intensive ones. The future job market will require higher quality manpower, and the demand for technical personnel will grow ever larger.

In a study of the nation's technical personnel needs for the years 1983 to 1993, which classified technical manpower under the four categories of engineering, science, medicine, and agriculture, the ROC Council for Economic Planning and Development predicted that oversupply will exist in the two categories of science and agriculture.

Colleges of science are found in nineteen universities on Taiwan, and they produce an average of 2,430 science graduates a year for a job market of just 1,550. The surplus is most serious in mathematics, physics, and chemistry, but geology and meteorology, long considered classic "dead-end departments," are actually fairly well balanced in terms of supply and demand.

Agriculture, which is taught at six colleges and universities, graduates a surplus in all fields except agronomy and veterinary medicine, which require only ten or so graduates a year, the oversupply being most serious in forestry, animal husbandry, and horticulture.

For agriculture majors with a solid grounding in chemistry, biology, and biochemistry, however, the possibilities for agricultural applications of the new sciences of biotechnology and genetic engineering offer an exciting future.

The need for doctors, dentists, medical technicians, pharmacists, and other medical personnel, based on trends in advanced countries, is sure to grow as Taiwan's economy develops, and it is clear that the high employment rate and high income of physicians will continue to make their field a coveted object of competition with vast numbers of high school seniors in the future.

In most people's eyes, engineering, in addition to medicine, is another highly employable field of study. Will it remain so?

As a whole, engineering graduates are still undersupplied, but there are "hot" and "cold" kinds. Civil engineering, chemical engineering, aeronautical engineering, marine engineering, and architecture, which were previously considered strong fields, are now producing an oversupply of graduates, while telecommunications, information management, computer science, and electronics engineering look to be the fields of the future.

Although prospects vary from field to field for graduates of technical departments, they still seem to belong in something of another league in terms of employability when compared with liberal arts and humanities majors.

Will there be a comeback for the humanities in the future?

Yen T'ien-chih, a manpower expert at the Council for Economic Planning and Development, points out that liberal arts majors have more flexibility in looking for jobs than technical specialists. But he says that research agencies at present lack the kind of detailed information on manpower needs for humanities majors that has enabled them to forecast future supply and demand for technical graduates.

Nevertheless, there are some encouraging trends. Foreign language majors remain in strong demand in a nation heavily involved in international trade, and the continued growth of the advertising industry means more jobs for art and Chinese majors.

Prospects for humanities graduates are thus closely tied to developments in business. As for business majors, management and international trade are still the most sought-after fields.

In the social sciences, economics and public finance are the most promising departments, while the continued rise of the population's median age will mean an increased demand for social workers to provide services for the elderly. However, limitations on the number of candidates who can pass the bar examinations make law a rather "cold" field.

Finally, education remains an attractive alternative for many. Because of a shortage of elementary and junior high school teachers, graduates of teachers' colleges and normal universities are practically guaranteed of employment, for the next ten years at least.

Before high school seniors fill out those all-important field of study preference forms for the college entrance exams, they need to do some thinking. If they place prime importance on job security, then they must take into account social trends and future economic developments. If personal satisfaction is the goal, then it's more a question of individual ideals, interests, and abilities. After all, it may look like a strong field to others, but you're the one who's got to live with it.

[Picture Caption]

Information engineering will be the fastest-growing career over the next six years. (photo by Arthur Jeng)

Demand for electronic engineers is expected to grow by 1,400 a year until 1993.

Biotechnology will open up new fields for agriculture graduates.

As they continue to develop, the nation's footwear and textile industries will require more trained designers. (photo by Arthur Jeng)

Advertising is a rapidly expanding industry. This ad won a Golden Bell Award. (photo courtesy of Yung Chun Trading Company)

An aging population will create jobs in medicine and social services.

Growing environmental consciousness could affect the future of industries with pollution problems.

Medicine will remain a coveted department for many high school seniors.

Teachers' colleges offer practically guaranteed employment. (photo by Chien Yung-pin)

Demand for electronic engineers is expected to grow by 1,400 a year until 1993.

Biotechnology will open up new fields for agriculture graduates.

Advertising is a rapidly expanding industry. This ad won a Golden Bell Award. （photo courtesy of Yung Chun Trading Company）

As they continue to develop, the nation's footwear and textile industries will require more trained designers. （photo by Arthur Jeng）

An aging population will create jobs in medicine and social services.

Growing environmental consciousness could affect the future of industries with pollution problems.

Medicine will remain a coveted department for many high school seniors.

Teachers' colleges offer practically guaranteed employment. （photo by Chien Yung-pin）