The Fourth Nuclear Power Plant (4NPP), known more formally as the Long­men Nuclear Power Station, is located in the rural Gong­liao District of New Taipei City. Planning for 4NPP began in 1980, and the government issued a license for its construction in March of 1999. Construction was suspended in October of 2000, but resumed again in April of 2001.

For more than three decades, there has been continual debate between anti- and pro-nuclear-power groups, and there have been repeated ups and downs as different political parties have won and lost control of the Executive Yuan. In 2014, after construction of Reactor 1 was completed but before commercial operation began, anti-nuclear groups launched huge demonstrations calling for the government not to allow 4NPP to go into commercial operation. In the midst of intense controversy, the government decided to mothball 4NPP.

Energy affects the economy, industry, and daily life. Our energy future will have to be thought through and decided by all the people, and we will have to be prepared to live with whatever consequences result.

In fact, in February of 2013 the legislative caucuses of the ruling and opposition parties reached consensus that until a referendum had produced a result, they would not consider any follow-up budget for 4NPP and no fuel rods would be installed. In terms of budget implementation, aside from contracts already awarded and tasks related to safety inspections, all other work would be suspended. That is to say, there would have to be a referendum if the government wanted 4NPP to begin operations, and prior to such a referendum there would be no follow-up appropriations for the plant.

Nonetheless, when work was completed on Reactor 1, domestic anti-nuclear groups felt a sense of crisis, and they launched a series of protests and demonstrations. In addition, former Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) chairman Lin Yi-­hsiung, a pioneer of the anti-nuclear movement, began a hunger strike on April 22. He declared that the real choice at stake in the 4NPP controversy is not “Do we want electricity?” but “Do we want our lives?” Civic groups announced their support for Lin, and the government also showed a high degree of concern.

On April 25, President Ma Ying-jeou met with DPP chairman Su Chen-chang (their first ever meeting at the Presidential Palace) in hopes that the government and opposition could reach a common position on the 4NPP issue and resolve the impasse in a peaceful and rational manner.

After repeated negotiations, the Kuomintang legislative caucus announced that Reactor 1 would be mothballed following a safety inspection, while construction would be suspended on Reactor 2. Later, Premier ­Jiang Yi-huah announced that work would cease on 4NPP and its fate—whether to keep it or dismantle it—would be decided by public referendum.

It may be possible to put 4NPP in a “time capsule” pending a decision on its future, but it is impossible to avoid discussion of what other energy choices there might be.

Currently 31 countries around the world, accounting for 62% of the world’s population, use nuclear power. Of these, more than 90% have decided to maintain or increase the use of nuclear power. Only Germany, Belgium, and Switzerland currently have policies to discontinue use of nuclear power. Even of these three, moreover, none has decided to immediately abandon nuclear power, but they will instead “phase out” its use over periods ranging from 11 to 23 years.

Three years ago, the meltdown at the Fu­ku­shima Dai­ichi power station in Japan led to a huge surge in anti-nuclear sentiment. Prime Minister Na­oto Kan announced that Japan would halt operations of that country’s 20 nuclear plants, and proposed achieving “zero nuclear power” by 2030. However, today, three years after Japan’s nuclear power plants were shut down, the unit price of electricity has risen by 20%, and the government has announced that it will restart the Kan­sai Ohi Nuclear Power Plant. At present 77% of citizens support Prime Minister ­Shinzo Abe’s proposal to proceed only with a “phase out” of nuclear power over time, rather than moving to “zero nuclear power” in one step, until efficient alternative energy sources are adopted.

There are currently three nuclear plants in Taiwan generating electricity. Reactors 1 and 2 of the First Nuclear Power Plant will be withdrawn from service in 2018 and 2019, respectively; Reactors 1 and 2 of the Second Nuclear Power Plant will come offline for good in 2021 and 2023; and Reactors 1 and 2 of the Third Nuclear Power Plant are scheduled to follow suit in 2024 and 2025.

A report of the most recent forecasts by Taiwan Power Company (Tai­power) notes that if Taiwan abandons 4NPP and decides not to extend service at 1NPP and 2NPP, Taiwan’s reserve power capacity will slide from the current level of 16.3% and will fall below 10% in 2018, creating a major risk of energy shortfalls.

In order to ensure that there will be no power shortages, Tai­power plans to increase the amount of energy generated by natural-gas-fired power stations. However, not only will the price of electricity increase, putting inflationary pressure on prices, but carbon dioxide emissions will increase as well.

Taiwan depends on imports for 98% of its energy. In order to spread risk, it is inevitable that Taiwan will have to pursue diversification of energy sources in the future. The government has already been gradually reducing the proportion of energy to be supplied by nuclear power in the overall power mix of the future, and pro-actively developing renewable energy.

Of the various forms of renewable energy, Taiwan has the greatest potential to develop solar, wind, and geo­thermal. But there are many practical bottlenecks to solar energy still to be overcome, and this source could not compensate for the shortfall that will be caused by mothballing 4NPP. Meanwhile, wind power is limited by the difficulty of finding sites with suitable conditions, and both wind and geo­thermal also face problems of insufficient generating capacity.

Taiwan’s electricity usage has increased side by side with economic development. Is it possible to have “zero growth in electricity consumption” while avoiding negative effects like weakening economic growth or driving businesses to take their investments out of Taiwan? These are critical questions that Taiwan must consider in the future.

According to the Academia Sinica’s July 2013 Social Attitudes Survey, 68.3% of eligible voters said they would vote in a public referendum, and 63.6% of those who would vote said they did not agree with continued construction of 4NPP. (In the same question rephrased, 62.4% said they agreed with a halt on construction of 4NPP and with prohibiting the plant from going into operation.) However, contradictorily, 63% said that they would not be willing to pay higher electricity prices than the level at the time of the survey, if that were a condition of dismantling nuclear power.

A national energy conference is scheduled to convene in August 2014. It is hoped that the participants will lay out a new direction for Taiwan, but citizens must also coolly reflect and collectively choose, then accept responsibility for whatever burdens may result in the future.