Throughout the 2002 year-end Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral election campaigns there has been little change in the relative strengths of the contenders, with the Democratic Progressive Party-the ruling party nationally-far better placed in the south than in the north. Whether any surprise upsets will occur will depend on those floating voters who are still undecided.

In Taipei, the incumbent Kuomintang mayor Ma Ying-jeou has called for a clean election free of flags and fireworks, and has maintained a stable lead in the polls, with support running at between 50 and 60%. But in the face of the DPP's all-round mobilization, and the possible effect of the Lee Teng-hui card, he cannot afford to take anything for granted.

Ma's sole challenger is Lee Ying-yuan of the DPP. Lee's relative lack of previous involvement in Taipei City politics, and recent controversy over a number of central government policies, have caused him to face an uphill struggle. But with vigorous support from his own party and the help of the local Hakka community, he has gradually made some headway. He has also shifted the emphasis of his campaign toward emotional appeal, taking to the streets and the soapbox to engage the electorate in direct dialogue.

In Kaohsiung, the incumbent DPP mayor Frank Hsieh also enjoys a clear lead in the polls. With four candidates in the race, a split vote appears likely. Support for KMT candidate Huang Junying has been gradually growing, but in order to secure a wider voter base, on 25 November the three non-incumbent candidates-Huang, Chang Po-ya and Shih Ming-teh-held secret talks at which they agreed that the opposition forces needed to consolidate. However, they were unable to decide which of them should be the first to stand down. It was only after People First Party leader James Soong announced his party's support for Huang on 28 November that the prospect of a clear blue/green race emerged. However, DPP supporters stated that Soong's intervention would only stiffen their own resolve, and Hsieh's chances of victory were as high as ever.

In the city council elections, there has been an explosion in the number of candidates running. In Taipei, 113 candidates have registered to compete for 52 seats; and in Kaohsiung, 114 candidates are fighting for 44 seats.

Competition in the council elections is intense, but with most of the media attention focused on the mayoral elections, there is little excitement in the air. The better-known sitting candidates are able to use their dense network of personal connections and their record of service in office to engage voters within their own constituencies. New candidates, on the other hand, may need the powerful support of their parties and a distinctive image to be able to make a breakthrough. Those candidates without a party machine behind them have far more limited chances of success.

Most observers of the 2002 elections believe that in the past the DPP could count on the firm support of 30-40% of grassroots voters, but they are watching with keen interest to see whether this support base will be as solid this time round, following the transfer of central government power to the DPP and the political upheavals of the last two years.

In particular, the 23 November demonstration on the streets of Taipei by 120,000 farmers and fishermen drew the attention of the whole nation. It stole much of the thunder from the first round of live TV debates between the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral candidates, which had taken place shortly beforehand. The lack of coordination between the presidential office and the cabinet, the voices of dissent against the central government from within the ruling DPP and the continuing political fallout from the cabinet reshuffle will inevitably impact the Taipei and Kaohsiung elections.

In Taipei, President Chen has made repeated personal appearances with Lee Ying-yuan to boost his campaign, and many people had expected that the Taiwan Solidarity Union's spiritual leader Lee Teng-hui would also come out in support of Lee Ying-yuan at the close of the campaign. But following the farmers' and fishermen's demonstration, voices within the DPP have called for President Chen to clearly dissociate himself from Lee Teng-hui.

Because of Taipei City's pre-eminent position nationwide, this mayoral election is also being interpreted as a prelude to the next presidential elections. The chairpersons of all the parties have been diligently tramping through the constituencies to garner support for their candidates, but at the same time they have also been beating their own drums. The media have been closely watching the performance of Chen Shui-bian, Ma Ying-jeou, Lien Chan and James Soong, the four obvious heavyweight contenders for the next presidential race.

As for the ordinary citizens of Taipei and Kaohsiung, who are having the mayoral campaigns thrust down their throats on a daily basis, they all hope that the candidates can talk about some real issues, because only policies can win voters' hearts and assure support at the ballot box.

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In mid-November, as the countdown to polling day begins, Taipei City mayoral candidates Ma Ying-jeou and Li Ying-yuan greet each other cordially at the start of their televized debate. (Teng Shih-jen)