No fall in support for Lee and Lien, but support for reunification down to new low of 14%. Fears of PRC attack unchanged from start of year at 40%.

Communist China has started another round of missile tests in an attempt to interfere in Taiwan's presidential election, but the effect of its threats and intimidation may be just the opposite of what it intends. The latest China Times opinion poll reveals that more than half of those surveyed resent mainland China's military exercises, and that support for Lee Teng-hui and Lien Chan has not waned, but remains at around 34%. As for Taiwan's future direction, the number of people supporting reunification has fallen further to an all-time low of 14%.

Communist China's announcement of its intention to test-fire guided missiles into the sea off Taiwan in the coming days has aroused general resentment and misgivings among ROC residents. A tele-phone survey of over 700 adults in the Taiwan Area, conducted by the China Times on 5 March, reveals that 52% of those surveyed take great exception to communist China's series of military exercises, and believe that the mainland authorities' actions will only arouse the resentment of the people of Taiwan. However, another 26% were unconcerned.

The capacity of the PRC's missile tests to frighten people in Taiwan seems to be showing signs of wearing off. Almost 40% of those we surveyed were worried that the mainland may attack Taiwan militarily, but 52% were not afraid.

Trends from previous surveys show that the proportion of people who fear that the PRC will attack Taiwan rose from 36% at the time of the PRC's missile tests last year, to 40% at the beginning of 1996; today it still remains at about the same level. This shows that alarm is not spreading further among the public in Taiwan.

The number of people who have confidence in Taiwan's defense capabilities if it were to be attacked by the mainland shows signs of an upturn. The present survey revealed that 53% believed Taiwan would be able to defend itself if the PRC launched an attack. But 23% believed Taiwan does not have the strength to withstand a cross-strait war.

Analysis of trends reveals that in the past the proportion of the populace with confidence in Taiwan's defense capability has remained between 35% and 45%, but today it is on the rise. Conversely, those with a negative view, who are not confident of Taiwan's ability to defend itself, had always been above 30% in the past, but has now fallen markedly.

Beijing has turned the brunt of its criticism directly against Lee Teng-hui. This leads some people to believe that Lee should bear the main responsibility for the deterioration in cross-strait relations. But a majority do not take this view. Our survey showed that almost 50% of those surveyed felt the souring in relations could not be blamed entirely on Lee. Only 19% felt Lee should bear the main responsibility.

As regards the PRC's missile exercises, people generally think they are intended to damage Lee Teng-hui's prestige and thus influence the outcome of the elections. But our survey shows that so far the effect has not been great. 32% believed Beijing's actions would only have the opposite effect, and actually boost Lee's prestige. 13% believed that the mainland's military exercises would be effective in damaging Lee's prestige.

So just how are the PRC's missile tactics affecting Taiwan's presidential elections? Our survey showed support for the Lee-Lien ticket unchanged from previous polls, at 34%. Support for Lin and Hao was also stable at around 7%. The Peng-Hsieh and Chen-Wang tickets each remained at four to five percentage points. However, 50% of those polled expressed no clear preference.

If Beijing wishes to use military intimidation to achieve its political objective of reunification, it has little chance of success. Our survey revealed that as far as Taiwan's future relations with mainland China are concerned, the percentage of the populace who support reunification has sunken further, while the number supporting Taiwanese independence has not fallen, and voices in favor of maintaining the status quo are becoming louder by the day.

From the figures it appears that before the PRC began its missile exercises, some 20% of Taiwan residents still favored reunification, but with the Beijing's constant military threats and the tension in cross-strait relations, by early this year this figure had fallen to 15%. With the current new wave of missile firings, support for unification among Taiwan's public has fallen to a new low of 14%.

The proportion of residents who support independence for Taiwan had long remained stable at between 10 and 15%, but today is around 10%. Thus there has been no marked change. Meanwhile 56% believe that maintaining the status quo is the best choice now for Taiwan's future.

The survey was conducted on 5 March 1996, using a systematic sampling method, with Taiwan Area residential telephone directories as the sampling base. A total of 719 adults with the right to vote were successfully interviewed, of whom 55% were male. At a confidence level of 95%, the sampling error is approximately plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.