At T-minus three months to the De-cember 1st elections for legislators and for county and city executives, election confusion has everybody scratching heads.
Issues like the coherence of the "pan-blue coalition" (referring to the opposition parties, who all use blue in their party symbols) the impact of the Taiwan Solidarity Union and the idea of a so-called "pan-green coalition," (referring to possible cooperation between the TSU and the Democratic Progressive Party, whose color is green), and the complex feelings stirred up by the continuing activities of former president Lee Teng-hui, are being talked to death on TV political forums. In this, the first election following the transfer of power in Taiwan, realignment of grassroots campaigners and election resources has cast a pea soup fog over the road to the election; constant change in the political landscape is the order of the day.
We can, however, be sure of one thing: The impact of the year-end elections in redefining Taiwan and giving her new direction will be on par with that of the earlier presidential elections. Dispelling the current gloom over Taiwan and mapping a clear future are major priorities.
The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), built around a nucleus of so-called "mainstream" KMT party members, was officially established in a ceremony held August 12th. Former president Lee Teng-hui, the TSU's rallying point, accepted an invitation to speak and shared his experience with party legislative candidates. He also said that he "identified" with the TSU and would use the resources at his disposal to make it Taiwan's biggest party.
Crushing with love?
Dusting off his political gloves, Lee Teng-hui came out swinging for the TSU, tossing another plot complication into an already confusing election. Holding high the banners of political stability, a strong Taiwan, appeal to a native Taiwanese constituency, and support for the current admini-stration's agenda, the TSU hopes to help the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) attain an absolute majority in the Legislative Yuan in the year-end legislative elections through an "85 seats+35 seats" coalition. With a legislative majority, President Chen Shui-bian's administration would no longer face obstruction of its program.
However, though Chen had promised to attend the TSU initiation ceremony, he ultimately opted to send a congratulatory note instead. This and the fact that no high-ranking administration officials turned out at the ceremony suggests DPP apprehension towards its would-be comrade-in-arms.
The 39 legislative candidates for the TSU are almost the political spitting images of their DPP counterparts, suggesting significant voter overlap. Some TSU candidates turned coat out of resentment after the DPP failed to nominate them. Legislator Shen Fu-hsiung of the DPP fears that not only will this nomination strategy not attract new support for the DPP, it could even siphon away ballots. DPP chairman Frank Hsieh was thinking of this when he reprimanded the TSU for "acting recklessly" and telling them "not to be so naive as to think that everything they have is of desirable quality" (referring to some people who failed to be nominated by the DPP but were nominated by the TSU).
Since the emergence of party politics in Taiwan, unity has been the DPP's most effective weapon against the disarrayed KMT. The distraction of their well-focused party by an unsought "pan-green" ally could be damaging.
Who's top dog?
The "pan-blue" coalition formed by the KMT, People First Party (PFP), and New Party has been even rockier than the green coalition, verging on collapse more than once. Will they be allies or foes in the future?
The main issue seems to be: Who is the leader? The KMT is currently big man on the block in the Legislative Yuan with over 100 seats, compared with 20 PFP seats and seven for the New Party. However, in last year's presidential election, PFP chairman James Soong (with 37% of the ballots) finished well ahead of KMT chairman Lien Chan (22%). James Soong's personal charisma is the main source of popular support for the PFP, making it difficult for the KMT and the PFP to work together.
In early August, the New Party, which has placed a great deal of hope on building a "pan-blue" coalition, lashed out at PFP deputy chairman Chang Chau-hsiung's remark that "there is no pan-blue coalition," only a "pro-Soong coalition." Although Chang later publicly apologized, the damage had already been done and he had let the cat out of the bag on PFP plans to go its own way.
On August 24th, the long-postponed meeting between James Soong and Lien Chan finally took place. After speaking privately for almost two hours, Lien and Soong held separate press conferences. Soong expressed regret and disappointment that due to lack of internal consensus, the KMT would not be publicly supporting PFP candidates in any of the 21 county and city executive seats up for grabs in the upcoming election. He also stated that a breakdown in bilateral cooperation would force the PFP to rethink strategy: it would now concentrate its energies on winning Legislative Yuan seats.
The following day, the PFP cut to the quick with a surprising announcement that it would withdraw from the Taipei and Kaohsiung county executive elections. At first glance, it would appear that the PFP was pulling in its horns, but are they actually trying to get the whole ball of wax? Will they withdraw from the pan-blue coalition? What will the order of battle be for the pan-blue forces? Although KMT, PFP, and New Party ideas are very similar in terms of constitutional structure and direction for the nation, political interests are preventing them from working together. Be sure to watch to see if this situation causes supporters to be at a loss over which "blue" candidate they should support.
Giving voters a tough job
Come what may, the year-end elections will both be a report card for the DPP government's performance over the past year-and-a-half and usher in seismic shifts in Taiwan party politics.
A victory for the pan-green forces would make "Taiwan first" a fundamental plank of the government, give the Chen administration free rein to run the government, and give the current administration the opportunity to be judged more on its own merits. On the other hand, a pan-blue coalition victory would signify approval of the previous 50 years of KMT rule, the Chen administration might be forced to surrender the right to form the cabinet, the semi-presidential system would undergo a severe test, and the political scene in Taiwan could once again be thrown into turmoil.
Here's another possible scenario: disputes within both the green and blue camps, splinter group against splinter group, an overabundance of political parties, chaos as they fight tooth and nail before the election, and, finally, an attempt to organize a coalition government after the election. Taiwanese would become even more divided among themselves. It looks as though, on this bumpy road to the election, the public can only be patient and keep their eyes open.
p.047
Once again in the news, former President Lee Teng-hui (center) is the rallying point for the Taiwan Solidarity Union. At the forefront radiating vitality as always, Lee Teng-hui overwhelmed everybody at a Taiwan Solidarity Union election research conference. It remains to be seen how much effect, however, he will actually have on votes. Second from right is TSU chairman Huang Chu-wen. (photo by Wu Chi-ming)
@List.jpg?w=522&h=410&mode=crop&format=webp&quality=80)
