Shifting Alliances? Lee Teng-hui's New Political Grouping

On June 16, speaking at the launch of the Northern Taiwan Society, President Chen Shui-bian described how Taiwan's first-ever transfer of power between parties has led to a reshuffling of the island's political order, creating temporary economic and social difficulties. He said that with society's relative lack of national consciousness and historical awareness, democracy in Taiwan is like an enormous flower on a weak stalk: beautiful but very vulnerable. Chen also emphasized that Taiwan cannot afford to let its development be obstructed by internal squabbling.

Taking his turn at the podium after Chen, former president Lee Teng-hui noted that last year's transfer of power has yet to bring improvements to Taiwan's political landscape, and listed four major tasks facing the country at present: "Stabilizing the political situation, revitalizing the economy, consolidating democracy and strengthening Taiwan." Lee reiterated these points when he met with members of the soon-to-be-established pro-Taiwan alliance.

Lee Teng-hui's dramatic re-emergence on the political stage, one year after retirement, in order to "help out" President Chen Shui-bian, triggered a barrage of attacks against him for stoking ethnic polarization. In response, figures in the pro-Taiwan camp stressed that while Lee's intervention may have taken an "improper" form, it was quite "proper" in essence. Lee's action is not a betrayal of the KMT, they say, because the pro-Taiwan position is not narrow or exclusive, and is not based on mobilizing support along ethnic lines.

With the new political alliance now imminent, Lee loyalists like Huang Chu-wen and Huang Hui-chen have been working fast to rally the support of potential alliance members all around the island. Huang Hui-chen emphasizes that the new alliance's "pro-Taiwan" stance is centered on identification with Taiwan, rather than on some narrow concept of ethnic identity. Alliance members, rather than being ideology-bound activists, will be moderate, sensible figures at the local level, with the clout to succeed in the year-end elections.

The new political alliance has optimistically taken up "85 seats plus 35 seats" as its slogan, referring to the objective of winning enough seats in the elections to form a stable legislative majority with the DPP-the DPP taking 85 seats and the new alliance providing another 35. This would enable the DPP administration to better implement policy without having its hands tied, as now, by the opposition.

The KMT and PFP both responded to Lee Teng-hui's political intervention in a low-key manner. PFP chairman James Soong complained about the existence of a "dual presidential system," with the incumbent and his predecessor running the country hand-in-hand. KMT chairman Lien Chan, who was banqueting with overseas Chinese groups in New York at the time, described the KMT as Taiwan's only truly "localized" (or pro-Taiwan) party, and said that he absolutely opposed anything that stirs up rancor over the unification-vs.-independence issue or that tries to separate the notions of ethnic solidarity and shared national identity.

There was, however, a furious reaction from the elderly members of the KMT's Huang Fu-hsing party section, with calls for Lee Teng-hui's expulsion and for a "cleansing" of the party. There has been a spate of predictions that the KMT may split, but Lin Fong-cheng, the party's secretary general, says that such talk is exaggerated. As to the formation of a new political alliance, Lin says that the KMT has known about this for two months and is fully prepared, so there shouldn't be much of an impact on the party.

DPP chairman Frank Hsieh said that public opinion is now solidly in favor of ending the chaotic state of affairs in the legislature, so that the country can develop on a stable foundation. According to Hsieh, the DPP has no pre-set position regarding collaboration with other parties after the elections, and even if a coalition government is eventually formed, that will be decided through party-to-party consultation, under the principles of multiparty politics.

With the situation still unclear, leading figures in the KMT, DPP and PFP have remained cautious about what they say. However, Kuo Cheng-liang, an academic who intends to run for a seat in the legislature, predicts that the Lee Teng-hui faction will break away from the KMT because of the falling out between Lee and Lien. This would be the party's third split in eight years, following those that led to the formation of first the New Party and then the PFP. Also, the merging of political forces into "Bian-Lee" and "Lien-Soong" camps, brings forward the possibility of a two-party political structure developing in Taiwan.

However, the prospects for a two-party political future remain uncertain, and what worries many people at the moment is whether or not the new political alliance, with its appeal to "pro-Taiwan" sentiments, will stir up ethnic hostilities.

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In mid-June, President Chen Shui-bian (right) and his predecessor Lee Teng-hui (left) both appeared on stage for the launch of the Northern Taiwan Society. Their joint attendance was viewed as symbolizing the coming together of "pro-Taiwan" forces. (photo by Hung Sheng-fei)