Polls Apart: Taiwan Votes

Surfing the Internet, it seems that one of the most noted features of this election is that the candidates themselves are overshadowed by the "four kings." Everyone is talking about how strange this election is, saying that it is "a presidential election in which the presidency is not at stake." It does not follow the same pattern as in the past, when voters tended to focus on individual candidates or political parties. This election is about the question: "Whose path should Taiwan follow?" From one perspective, the pulling and tugging among the high-profile political stars could tear Taiwan apart. But from another, this is just a manifestation of the diversity and pluralism of Taiwan's democracy.

"No matter how difficult, the sky will be blue again!" For the first time in its history, the KMT is not the ruling party. It has latched onto the issue of the weakening economy, hoping to attract voters' support through such activities as a "March of the Unemployed."

China or Taiwan?

"When you cast your vote on December 1, will you cast it for China or for Taiwan?" This has become the trademark opening remark by Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) chairman Huang Chu-wen at party rallies. On the stage, candidates declaring themselves to be "students from the school of Lee Teng-hui" stand in line, while off stage supporters wearing hats embroidered with the phrase "friend of Lee Teng-hui" wave flags in a frenzy and shout "Cast a vote for Ah Hui," "Vote for the TSU, don't let the DPP have it all to themselves!"

In Changhwa, at a campaign rally for the People's First Party, a dozen or so PFP candidates for the Legislative Yuan and the party nominee for county executive stand in line, each waiting to make his or her three-minute speech. The time is too short to outline any serious proposals, so candidates simply drop some sound bites and finish up by asking people to vote for the PFP "to ensure that they and James Soong will all make it into the legislature." This has become the slogan of choice with which to rally PFP supporters, and refers to the fact that party chairman James Soong is number 11 on the PFP slate for legislators at large. Under Taiwan's electoral system, each party is allocated at-large seats based on their percentage of the total vote, and whether Soong makes it into the Legislative Yuan will be a key indicator of PFP performance.

Because this election, the first since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidency and thereby became the ruling party, will determine Taiwan's political map over the next two-and-a-half years, party leaders are sparing no efforts in personally leading the fight. President Chen of the DPP, playing on his strong incumbent position, is touring the country to stump for party nominees. Meanwhile, Lien Chan, chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT), who has always been considered rather taciturn, is garnering much attention with his feisty rhetoric. The battle between these four "kings" of the political scene-Lee, Soong, Chen and Lien-is getting all the headlines. Meanwhile, it seems that the actual players in election, the more than 400 candidates for Legislative Yuan and more than 80 hopefuls for city mayor or county executive, are left playing second fiddle.

With political headliners stealing the show, naturally campaign themes do not focus on bread-and-butter issues like local transportation, irrigation, or environmental protection. The "elevation" of campaign themes to a more symbolic level is a novelty in elections for these offices.

Kuo Cheng-liang, a professor of political science at Soochow University, who himself is making his first bid for public office, says that he spends all day cruising the streets begging for support. Asked about his policy preferences, he replies: "That's not important." Kuo explains that this election is a showdown for control between political parties, so it is perfectly acceptable for the parties to establish a uniform set of policy preferences for candidates.

With the slogan "carrying on the legacy of Lee Teng-hui," the TSU (Taiwan Solidarity Union), though just created, has hope of getting 5% or even more of the seats in the Legislative Yuan. Its strength shouldn't be overlooked. The photo shows Lee Teng-hui at a TSU rally in Panchiao, Taipei County.

It's the economy, stupid!

The first issue to be settled in this showdown could be said to be: "Who ruined Taiwan's economy?" The economy is actually shrinking, and unemployment is rising sharply. KMT chairman Lien Chan for the first time personally took to the streets, leading a "March of the Unemployed." Large advertisements across the country claim: "Think about it. It was better under the KMT."

On its side, the ruling DPP early on convened the Economic Development Advisory Council to show its determination to go all out to rescue the economy. The EDAC, which involved all major parties, reached more than 300 points of consensus on action to take. Shortly thereafter, in November, the DPP began working on the theme of "the barbarian opposition," putting the blame for the struggling economy on alleged opposition ploys to boycott economic legislation and slash the budget.

Kao Lang, a professor of political science at National Taiwan University, observes: "This is the first time in 50 years in Taiwan that the economy has become the main focus of an election." Elsewhere, it is common to see ruling parties forced out because of presumed mismanagement of the economy. For example, former president George Bush had incredibly high popularity ratings after the Persian Gulf War, but, mired in an economic recession, lost to Bill Clinton, whose previous highest office had been governor of a small Southern state.

You might think that economic issues would be subject to more "rational" interpretation, and responsibility would be clear-cut. But in Taiwan in the run-up to this election, everybody has something that they can blame on the other guy. The KMT blames the DPP for the whole Fourth Nuclear Power Plant fiasco. The DPP criticizes the KMT's reduction of working hours and the instability generated by KMT attempts to impeach the president or overturn the cabinet. Some guy in northern Taiwan might assert that the DPP has gotten a little too arrogant since its victory in the 2000 presidential action. On the other hand, an unemployed person in southern Taiwan might sit idly at home and curse the KMT for allegedly dragging the country down out of sheer spite over losing that same election.

As an extension of economic issues, there is also the policy controversy over opening up direct commercial links with mainland China, which had previously been obstructed by the "no haste, be patient" policy. Thus, another core issue is what direction should be taken in cross-strait relations.

(above and below) Like a general leading his army, President Chen Shui-bian criss-crosses Taiwan with his DPP election team and is greeted everywhere by enthusiastic crowds. President Chen's charm works wonders. (Photo by Chang Suo-ching)

Who loves you, Taiwan?

Lee Ben-nan, a professor in the Graduate Institute of National Development at National Taiwan University and secretary-general of the New Party, avers: "When you get right down to it, Taiwan only faces one extreme issue: independence vs. reunification." The thrusts and parries of political parties revolve around this issue, and the name of the game is: "Who loves Taiwan the most?"

The "pan-green alliance," led by the DPP and supported by the TSU, feels that now that the DPP controls the presidency, the policy of "Taiwan first" is firmly in place, and the best thing with regard to the independence question would be to maintain the status quo. What would be the point of rocking the boat? But the "pan-blue alliance" which includes the KMT, PFP, and New Party, tends to argue that the key to amelioration of cross-strait relations lies in accepting the principle of "one China" for the future. They say that as long as cross-strait relations remain acrimonious, Taiwan's economy cannot take the next step to move out of its current difficulties. Which of these two views expresses a greater love for Taiwan? Voters can only try their best to separate the wheat from the polemical chaff.

In this showdown between political organizations, the ambitions and maneuverings of the most prominent party aristocrats are also getting considerable exposure.

Looking at the structure of Taiwan's voting population, at bottom the ratio of 60% blue vs. 40% green is quite firmly established, and parties on both sides are finding it difficult to make inroads into the other camp. From the point of view of the DPP, then, the key is to split the pan-blue forces; if they are disunified, the DPP could become the largest party in the legislature, albeit one without an absolute majority.

From comments by two "nativist" KMT legislative candidates calling for cooperation between their party and the DPP, and the vice-chairman of the PFP calling the KMT and DPP "two bad apples," it seems that the rivalry between the two main opposition parties over who is "true blue"-that is, over who will lead their uncertain alliance-is indeed as yet unresolved. Meanwhile, with superstar drawing card Chen Shui-bian touring the country supporting candidates under the banner "maiden voyage of a new era," the rallies of the DPP are impressive enough to call to mind the enormous rally held on the eve of the presidential election in March of 2000.

(above and below) Like a general leading his army, President Chen Shui-bian criss-crosses Taiwan with his DPP election team and is greeted everywhere by enthusiastic crowds. President Chen's charm works wonders. (Photo by Chang Suo-ching)

Wiping out "black gold"

Though there are aspects of the year-end election which are worrisome, there are also some positive developments. Hsu Yang-ming, deputy secretary-general of the DPP, says that traditional local powers-that-be-groups built around organized crime, collusion between officials and businessmen, and local factions-are now more like powers-that-were. Across the entire country from north to south, these local political forces, which have always had a pivotal role in legislative elections, are being weakened, and they appear much less capable of mobilizing voters in the traditional manner.

While much of the credit for the weakening of these so-called "black gold" forces goes to the DPP's efforts as ruling party to eradicate their influence, some is also due to the KMT's desire to dispel its image as a "black gold party" in the wake of its painful defeat in the presidential contest a year-and-a-half ago. Under the banner of reform, the KMT now refuses to nominate any politician who is the subject of a criminal prosecution, as they demonstrated in the case of incumbent legislator Liao Hwu-peng. That politicians are deliberately trying to keep their reputations untainted is also evident in the PFP camp. Taichung County speaker Yen Ching-piao, who is embroiled in a legal case, has been seen as a strong supporter of James Soong, but when he opened his campaign headquarters, Soong stayed away from the event.

The collapse of black gold and factions is also connected to voter behavior, as folks no longer are swayed so much by appeals to personal connections and exchanges of favors. Does this mean voters are now more autonomous? Not necessarily. Kao Lang says with a laugh that these days the media oozes in through every hole in the wall. Politically oriented programs, many of whose hosts are political celebrities, have washed over the country in waves. For example, Sisy Chen, a program host who is running for legislature as an independent, has very high support ratings, which makes it seem that the media can certainly determine public opinion.

Turning to an aspect of this election that is indisputably positive, vote buying has been virtually eliminated. This October, the Ministry of Justice set very rigorous standards by declaring "anything over NT$30 [US$1] is considered vote buying." The MOJ has also launched a campaign to involve all citizens in uncovering vote buying and is offering a reward of NT$10 million for anyone exposing a case. Under this dual carrot-and-stick approach, many candidates realize that it will be impossible for them to distribute money. It can only be considered a major victory that this year, at a single stroke, the custom of vote buying which has dominated Taiwan for decades has been eradicated.

The current elections have caused just as much excitement as 2000's presidential elections. Political superstars have attracted large crowds. The photo shows a Taiwan Solidarity Union rally.

Your sacred vote

Of course, the ultimate success or failure of this election will be determined by whether the post-election political situation can escape the current murkiness and instability. In this regard, the parties are already quietly sending out feelers.

Chu Yun-han, a professor of political science at National Taiwan University, points to two possible scenarios for a post-election future. One is that the DPP, combined with the TSU and "free-floating" nativist members of the KMT, will add up to an absolute majority in the legislature, and can organize a DPP-led coalition government. This will obviate the current problem of the presidency and cabinet being in the hands of one party while another has a parliamentary majority. This would be the true beginning of the DPP era, and at the same time would expose the DPP's governing ability to no-excuses scrutiny.

Another possible outcome is that the pan-blue forces, including the KMT, PFP, and New Party, will have a legislative majority and will be able to work together. However, under the Constitution the president will still have the power to choose the premier. What then? If in these circumstances a DPP-led cabinet continues operating in its current form as a minority government, everything will be back to square one, and the political situation will remain confused and unstable. This is something scholars are very worried about.

Wu Yu-shan, a colleague of Chu's at NTU, notes that Taiwan is currently standing at a crossroads for establishing constitutional precedent. If none of the three major parties can command a legislative majority, some form of co-operative government will be inevitable. But if the election is a vicious, no-holds-barred one and people have such different definitions even of national identity, it will be very difficult after the election to heal the wounds and establish a consensus identity. This is an ordeal that Taiwan's democracy must pass on the road to maturity.

On December 1, the fog will lift and the results will be in. So long as you vote from the heart, and cast your ballot for democracy, then there should be no regrets, because no matter what happens you will have already won.

Taipei County is where the pan-blue forces are cooperating best. The photo shows KMT chairman Lien Chan (center) stumping for New Party candidate Wang Chien-hsuan (second from left).

The current elections have caused just as much excitement as 2000's presidential elections. Political superstars have attracted large crowds. The photo shows a Taiwan Solidarity Union rally.

Nantou County offers the PFP their best hope for winning a local executive seat, but it will be an uphill battle against both the KMT and DPP. (photo by Hau Chen-tai)

The current elections have caused just as much excitement as 2000's presidential elections. Political superstars have attracted large crowds. The photo shows a Taiwan Solidarity Union rally.