President Chen Announces Schedule for Direct Cross-strait Links by the End of 2004

On August 13th, President Chen invited media chiefs in Taiwan to a briefing with the theme of "A Taiwan Odyssey." During the meeting, he proposed a three-phase approach to the introduction of cross-strait transportation. The first phase would be preparatory, and would entail the establishment of a pragmatic attitude in both Taipei and Beijing toward the establishment of fast, convenient cross-strait movement of goods; the second phase would entail talks on direct transportation after next year's presidential election; and in the third phase the two sides would move toward implementation, with direct transportation to become a reality by the end of 2004.

President Chen said that the goal of the initial negotiations would be to decide on general guidelines, as the details are complex and require careful, step-by-step planning. He also emphasized that as long as enterprises retain their R&D, operational headquarters and technological nucleus in Taiwan, he will support their expansion into mainland China. Two days later, the Mainland Affairs Council of the Executive Yuan issued a "Cross-strait Direct Transportation Assessment," in which the government promotes the preparation for direct cross-strait transportation: initially, sea transportation will use fixed berths in the present four commercial ports, and will be limited to predetermined timetables and routes; air links will use CKS International Airport in Taoyuan and Hsiao Kang airport in Kaohsiung, but will exclude Taipei's Sungshan airport.

Minister of National Defense Tang Yao-ming, citing security concerns, said that direct cross-strait air transportation should be forbidden, and that Taiwan should instead utilize existing international air routes. According to his analysis, the shortest distance between Hsinchu in Taiwan and Pingtan in Fujian province on the mainland is just 70 nautical miles. In defense terms, an air attack could therefore be launched in only three to five minutes. If Taiwan allowed regular direct flights across the Taiwan Strait, said Tang, it would have a huge impact on national security.

At the moment, all civilian and military flight routes are oriented north-south. Any east-west air activity, particularly from the direction of mainland China, can thus be easily spotted on radar screens. If Taiwan opened direct transportation links, it would cause confusion in both civilian air-traffic control and military strategic command, and would also add an element of porosity to Taiwan's air defenses. In order to adopt the necessary extra security measures, international airports and seaports might have to employ another 1500 or more workers and install specialized military equipment at enormous expense.

At a recent meeting of the DPP Central Standing Committee, President Chen reiterated that the policy of "one side, one country" and the plan to implement referendums are the soul of the DPP. In response to his speech about the cross-strait direct transportation timetable, legislators from the KMT and People First Party raised criticisms that the Executive Yuan's assessment disregards established precedent, whereby the Straits Exchange Foundation and various private-sector organizations have taken the lead in conducting cross-strait talks. Now President Chen is insisting that the negotiations must be directed by the government, but he is in no position to say to what extent mainland China will accept the "one side, one country" policy.

Is mainland China likely to follow President Chen's schedule in talks with Taiwan? The opposition criticizes the president's plan for direct cross-strait links by the end of 2004 as an expedient measure that bypasses the regular administrative system, and brands the assessment by the Mainland Affairs council as a rubber stamp for President Chen's plan. If this assessment is correct, direct transportation won't in reality be likely in the near future. Some opposition analysts have asked why, if the DPP is sincere in its desire to promote direct links, has the government not acted in its three years in power, but rather waited until the run-up to the presidential election? This comment has also been raised in public forums.

Although opposition parties are highly suspicious of direct transportation initiatives, business and academia have welcomed the policy. A researcher at the Chung Hua Institution for Economic Research, Kao Chang, says that as long as Taiwan can establish direct transportation, it does not matter which ports or airports open first, because it will be positive for industry whatever happens. The Chairman of the Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers' Association, Hsu Sheng-hsiung, said that if the electronic industry can increase efficiencies in this area, they will save hundreds of millions of transportation dollars every year, and key high-added-value operations can be retained in Taiwan.

Public opinion seems to be that, owing to the proximity of next year's presidential election, cross-strait talks with the mainland will not yield any great progress before that time. It is thought that President Chen's direct transportation initiative is a "no-lose" situation for the DPP: they will either achieve their goal, or be seen to be prevented from achieving that goal by mainland China. The ball is now in mainland China's court. Taiwan is waiting to see how the mainland will react.