There isn't enough manpower--that has been the biggest problem facing ROC economic development over the last several years. However, the focus for everyone's attention is usually on construction, production line workers, sales people, and basic level laborers. They ignore the "knowledge workers" of university or college level. (In the ROC, college refers to a five-year technical school begun after middle school.) The labor market has changed dramatically in the last two years, but this is particularly the case following the political and economic "lifting of martial law."
Every July is peak season for graduation of college and university students or discharge from the military of these students who have just finished their service. What's different this year is that these people are no longer looked on as "greenhorns," but have become hard-to-get "talents." Some have many job offers even before graduation.
Taiwan's manpower shortage has already shifted from basic level labor to knowledge labor.
The most serious shortage is in technical personnel. Because the focus of Taiwan's economic development is turning from labor-intensive to knowledge-intensive, the need for technical personnel is acute. The Man-power Planning Department (MPD) of the Council for Economic Planning and Development said in 1985 that for the succeeding ten years it was expected there would be a shortage of 1,300 college/university level engineering personnel per year. Liu Yu-lan, assistant director of the MPD, says, "Engineering people have it made. The shortage of personnel is a long-term, international problem."
In comparison, the treatment for those studying humanities, law, or business ("soft" sciences) has changed dramatically. A 1986 estimate by the MPD indicated that supply of soft science personnel would exceed demand. But data from a survey done between January and May of this year by the National Youth Commission shows that not only does demand exceed supply, it does so many times over.
MPD Director Pei Chi Chang points out that this is directly related to the political and economic changes of the last couple of years.
Because the ROC export-led policy is meeting opposition from trade partners, the only recourse is to expand the domestic market. The service industry has thus grown. Further, the rapid rise in income has spurred all kinds of entertainment, travel, investment, and money management services. Last year personnel in the services for the first time surpassed that in industry, standing at 43.7% of the employed population.
Because the service industry needs more soft science grads, employment opportunities for these once "shunned" departments have greatly increased. The establishment of securities companies and of privately run banks following financial liberalization has also generated a structural change in the employment market.
According to the Ministry of Finance, since the deregulation of the establishment of securities companies last May, almost 90 companies have entered the stock market, hiring more than 10,000 people. (On the financial labor market, see the article "Going for Broke" in this issue.)
Although the rapid growth in securities is due to financial liberalization, it is also due to the rampancy of "money games" since the lifting of martial law. The flowing of idle capital into real estate is a case in point.
Manpower in the real estate industry has always relied on high school grads in the main. But because business has flourished in the last two years, robust salaries have attracted many university/college level young people. Because the industry's image is poor, some in it are beginning to require employees to have university/college education or above.
Since the lifting of restrictions on news papers, things have changed for humanities grads. Ordinary daily papers doubled in size and domestic papers exploded from 31 to 184. And since the Government Information Office opened travel to the mainland for reporters, the battleground has expanded. Salaries have risen. Not only journalism students, but those in related departments, can easily find jobs starting at NT$20-30,000.
Prosperity of Taiwan's businesses over the last two years, especially the above-mentioned sectors, has brought unemployment of college/university grads to its lowest level in seven years. This has given rise to raiding in the employment market. The problem is most serious in those sectors where personnel cannot be cultivated quickly, like journalism or finance.
According to a reporter at the Commercial Times, because every major newspaper began to emphasize stock market news, seven of its reporters moved to other papers within a year. This reporter, at the paper only eight months, is already a "senior staffer."
The oldest overseas commercial bank in the ROC, Citibank, has also suffered from manpower outflow. According to the personnel director at the bank, employee turnover has been 40% in the last year. Aside from losses to stock brokerages, others have been pirated away by other banks, whose own employess have in turn been spirited away.
In fact, it is not only private sector enter-prises that look with fear on employee resignations. Even government institutions have felt the impact of employee turnover. The various state-run enterprises and the units in charge of overseeing various sectors (such as the Government Information Office, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Industrial Development Bureau (IDB), and so on) have felt the impact the most. (On the civil service, see this issue's "Demanding Times for the Civil Service.")
Because of mutual raiding, the value of knowledge workers has risen. From the point of view of distributing wealth, this is not necessarily a bad thing. But at the same time, raiding has created several side effects.
Recently, Yang Shih-chien, dirctor of the IDB, has been faced with the headache of department personnel being seduced away by high salaries in the securities industry. These companies, in order to attract industry analysis personnel, eventually turned to those in the IDB responsible for formulating industrial policy. As these people leave, this will inevitably affect the timing of the ROC's promotion of industrial policy.
Given these kinds of worrisome side-effects, are changes in the post-martial law knowledge worker employment market ultimately long term and structural? Or short-term?
Bert J. Lim, president of the World Economics Society of the Sinica Academy of Information Research, believes that as far as the service industry is concerned, the percentage of the working population involved is lower than in advanced industrial countries and has the potential for growth. MPD Director Pei Chi Chang points out that the percentage of the working population in services in the advanced countries goes from 58 to 74. The ROC's 43.7 is still far from this level.
What's more, Chang believes, the ROC's political and economic liberalization direction will not change. Future policy will be even more open.
Nevertheless, with only so much of a market pie to go around, how many companies can eat their fill? And will losing ventures be able to hang on to employees? This is already happening in newspapers.
The situation in stocks and real estate is even more worrying. ROC stock companies can pay their brokers the highest salaries in the world, because turnover on the exchange is so high, reaching NT$100 billion daily. But this total is abnormally high for Taiwan's small market of only 100-plus listed companies. Labor is a resource that should fit with economic benefit. Doesn't this abnormally high market mislead labor resources?
This problem is also occurring in real estate. Commissions are high--selling a single NT$20 million property (common in Taipei) yields NT$1 million for the company and maybe NT$100,000 for the broker. But when the bubble bursts, will these employees be able to work steadily in other jobs?
"The greatest danger is that they will be lost in concentration on money," says Bert J. Lim sadly. They will continually jump to the job with the higher salary and ignore the accumulation of "specialized" abilities. Average time in a single job in the ROC is only 5 years, not only far lower than 20 in Japan, but even well below 12 in the U.S. "But in the long run, a mature society doesn't have limitless opportunities, and only with specialization do knowledge workers have their value."
With the employment market in a boom cycle, these warnings are sincere if hard to take, and could be the coolant overheated knowledge workers need.
[Picture Caption]
Since the lifting of martial law, have "knowledge workers" changed?
Following the lifting of restrictions on newspapers, demand for reporter s skyrocketed. (photo by Vincent Chang)
In order to improve their image in society, many real estate companies have begun recruiting college or university educated personnel. (photo by Lily Huang)
The rapid growth in the service industry has made humanities, law, and business students rare commodities. (photo by Wei-chang Wang)
(Above) In order to secure the sources of manpower, major enterprises have begun to link hands to go to colleges and universities to seek out talent. (photo by W ei-chang Wang)
(Below) The unemployment rate for college/university educated persons is at its lowest in seven years.
Society's newest "rookies" are lucky--they don't face the threat of unemployment after graduation. (photo by Arthur Cheng)
Following the lifting of restrictions on newspapers, demand for reporter s skyrocketed. （photo by Vincent Chang）
In order to improve their image in society, many real estate companies have begun recruiting college or university educated personnel. （photo by Lily Huang）
The rapid growth in the service industry has made humanities, law, and business students rare commodities. （photo by Wei-chang Wang）
（Above） In order to secure the sources of manpower, major enterprises have begun to link hands to go to colleges and universities to seek out talent. （photo by W ei-chang Wang）
（Below） The unemployment rate for college／university educated persons is at its lowest in seven years.
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