American Think Tanks: A Cross-Strait Door of Peace?

In Washington DC, where the air is charged with politics, many people on the streets are wearing suits even in the heat of a mid-August day. Visiting several Washington area think tanks, you quickly discover that security is tight. Even if you have made an appointment ahead of time, you still have to go through a number of security barriers.

Peiyung Hsu, an ROC diplomat stationed in Washington, explains that think tanks make important contributions to American policy, and many of their researchers are former government officials who know important national secrets, so security is important.

Today, when information is plentiful, both Taiwan and mainland China are active in trying to get accurate first-hand information to American think tanks. The photo shows the main reading area of the New York Public Library.

A revolving door

Hsu points out that American think tanks have one very important characteristic: They act as a "revolving door."

Look at foreign policy, the area of most concern to people in Taiwan and mainland China. Although think tanks are at the outermost fringe of the US policy-making ring, with far less influence than the White House or Congress, individuals move between think tanks and government positions with each change of administration as if through a revolving door. When the Republican administration of President Reagan took office in 1980, one think tank alone-the American Enterprise Institute (AEI)-had 30 scholars recruited into government, while Jean Kirkpatrick, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, became US ambassador to the United Nations.

Many American policy-makers in charge of East Asian affairs have had close relations with think tanks both before and after leaving office. Before he became ambassador to the PRC and assistant secretary of state, Winston Lord was head of the Association for Foreign Relations. Stanley Roth, who was assistant secretary of state for Asia-Pacific affairs during the second term of the Clinton administration, was formerly director of research and studies at the US Institute of Peace. Two figures well known to people in Taiwan for their advocacy of "track two" contacts between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, William Perry, former secretary of defense, and Henry S. Rowen, former assistant secretary of defense, both moved over to the Asian/Pacific Research Center at Stanford University after leaving office. James Lilley, former ambassador to Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China, is now a senior research fellow at AEI. Incumbent US vice president Dick Cheney is a former vice chairman of the board of AEI, and his wife still works there. Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao, who is of Chinese ancestry, previously worked in the Heritage Foundation.

The glittering New York skyline has always been a beautiful sight. But since the terrorist attack in September, this view is a thing of the past.

Policy influence

There are over 1000 think tanks in the US. Most raise their funds from government contracts or private donations. On the other hand, they tend to be leery of taking money from corporations or foreign governments. This, emphasizes Alexander T.J. Lennon, dean of the Young Leaders Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and also editor-in-chief of The Washington Quarterly, is because American think tanks are not lobbyists for hire.

More than 30 American think tanks are connected to Asia-Pacific affairs and have influence in academia and government. Most are located in the Washington-NY-Boston belt on the East Coast, and there are also several heavyweight institutes in the San Francisco area which have well-established reputations in the fields of East Asian studies and Asia-Pacific security affairs.

Orville Schell, dean of the Graduate Institute of Journalism at the University of California at Berkeley, describes the think tanks situated in Washington as "policy oriented." Because of their geographic location, they maintain frequent interactions with government agencies and congressmen, and their main function is to make suggestions about policy. Think tanks in New York, in Boston, and on the West Coast tend more toward academic research, while university-based think tanks are even more removed from the political thicket.

While there are differences in geographic location and orientation, most American think tanks are similar when it comes to the "revolving door" phenomenon. Moreover, even if think tank researchers do not enter the government, so long as their research has relevance to American national interests, they can still have considerable influence. For example, after Michael Swaine, a military affairs specialist at the RAND Corporation, published a study a few years ago which suggested that Taiwan's military has many problems in combat organization and weapons procurement, the US government took the findings seriously enough to send a team to Taiwan.

The memorial to Vietnam War veterans in Washington DC lists with moving simplicity the names of those who died. The Vietnam War was a painful experience for the US and a warning to steer clear of involvement in foreign wars.

The red and the blue

Although most American scholars maintain that their research is objective, outside observers can make some basic distinctions, based on the "fit" between studies published by institutes over the years and the policies of the main political parties. For example, among scholars who study Chinese and Taiwanese affairs, there is said to be a division between a so-called "blue team" (close to the Republican Party) and a "red team" (close to the Democratic Party).

Red team scholars typically argue that the US and PRC share many long-term interests in common and that a cooperative relationship can be built and maintained. The Clinton administration's policy of an "active strategic partnership" was based on suggestions made by so-called red team scholars. Representative figures are said to include David Lampton, former chairman of the National Committee on US-China Relations, and John Holden, current chairman of the same body.

"Blue team" scholars on the other hand, see the interests of the US and the interests of the communist regime in the PRC as basically divergent. They typically urge a hard stance on China, an end to so-called "strategic ambiguity," and more arms sales to Taiwan. Among the more familiar examples are Edwin Feulner, president of the Heritage Foundation, and James Lilley. It is generally believed that the frequent leaking of information of benefit to Taiwan since the Bush administration has taken office is connected to the large number of "blue team" scholars on his staff.

However, a red vs. blue typology is in fact much too crude and cannot fairly encompass most of the scholars who work in think tanks, much less tell us whether the policies they favor will be those preferred in Taipei or Beijing. This is because, as Lin Chong-pin, vice-chairman of the ROC Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), notes, every American think tank puts US interests first when recommending policy. The best way for Taiwan to protect its interests is to understand what all the scholars in all the think tanks have to say about Asia-Pacific policy, rather than taking sides.

Provide information

In fact, because of the "revolving door" phenomenon, plus the fact that the opinions of think tank scholars are taken seriously in formulating American policy, in recent years Taipei has indeed paid special attention to contacts with these institutions.

Lin Chong-pin says that currently the overseas offices of the ROC Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Government Information Office have personnel with specific responsibility for maintaining contact with think tanks. When the MAC sends people to the US, they provide information about Taiwan to think tank researchers. This summer, the MAC organized a visit to the US for a group of journalists from Taiwan, a visit which included direct contacts with think tank scholars. A few months ago, when MAC chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen visited the States to explain the relaxation of the "no haste, be patient" policy, she participated in a think tank forum in Los Angeles and flew to Washington to meet with scholars from a number of research institutions.

"The main thing for us," says Lin, "is to provide information." For example, he says that right now the only important Taiwan-based Chinese language newspaper published in the US is the World Journal, put out by the Taipei-based United Daily News. But the United Daily News position represents perhaps only about one-third of Taiwan public opinion. Yet, people abroad may, by default, take the World Journal as a voice for all of public opinion in Taiwan.

"Most think tank scholars are objective. We only have to provide them with information, and they will reach reasonable conclusions," says Lin. For example, he says David Lampton (a "red team" scholar) was in the past mainly critical of Taiwan's positions, and visited mainland China much more frequently. But after the MAC gave him a large amount of information about public opinion polls in Taiwan, last year during the ROC presidential election, he made a very different comment, expressing hope that mainland China would not attempt to isolate Taiwan, for this could only cause a backlash in Taiwan. Orville Schell is another example. In the past his research mainly focused on social change in the PRC. But after learning a great deal about Taiwan at multilateral conferences, he's begun to do more research on cross-strait issues.

In fact, given the growing frequency of interactions between the US, PRC, and Taiwan over last few years, American scholars are now getting their information not only from traditional channels like government agencies and other academics, but from a new source: closed-door conferences involving think tanks from the three sides, which have greatly increased the amount and accuracy of data available to all sides. In recent years some American think tanks have provided short-term research positions for scholars from the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Some have even gone so far as to organize classes for military personnel. For example, the Center for Strategic and International Studies this year organized a course for officers from the ROC military at the grade of colonel, and it is expected that next year they will have a similar class for officers at the rank of general. However, it is impossible to know for sure exactly how much of this kind of activity goes on, since these kinds of direct contacts, which provide first-hand information to both sides, are rather sensitive.

Door of peace

ROC contacts with think tanks have had an important influence on relations with the US. C.J. Chen, currently the ROC representative in Washington, says that you could immediately see the impact of "blue team" scholars after the Bush administration came into office. A clear example was the dignified treatment of President Chen Shui-bian during his stopover in New York. "It's a completely different situation from the stopover in Los Angeles last year," notes Cheng.

Lin Chong-pin says that now that scholars closer to the Democratic Party in the US are back in the think tanks, this is the time to strengthen relations with them. "We don't want to be deliberately wooing anyone. All we have to do is just provide more, and more accurate, information. Then both sides will benefit," he says.

As Donald Zagoria of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, which sponsors conferences on US China policy and cross-strait relations (known in Taiwan as "track two" conferences), says: The American flag includes red, white, and blue, so it doesn't matter what color the team is wearing, it still represents American interests.

Trilateral relations between the US, PRC, and ROC are not zero-sum. So long as the three sides can reach consensus through communication, then everyone can come out ahead. If American think tanks can help in this process, they will not only be a revolving door for US government officials, they could be a "resolving door" for cross-strait peace.

(Asia/Pacific Research Stanford University Center)
aparc.Stanford.edu

History: A/PARC was founded in 1978. Former Assistant Secretary of Defense Henry S. Rowen serves as the Center's co-director. Former Secretary of Defense William Perry worked here after leaving his post at the Defense Department. The late Michael Oksenberg, a world-renowned China scholar, was one of the Center's leading researchers.

Research Areas: Japan, Communist China, the Korean Peninsula, and other area studies. Also: economic issues, industrial policy, development, technology, communication and information, natural resources, the environment, security and national defense, diplomatic relations.

Positions on Taiwan: As an academic organization, A/PARC proclaims an atmosphere of free intellectual exchange. However, as Oksenberg, Rowan, Perry and others have been considered part of the so-called "Red Team," the Center has been considered pro-China in its leanings.

Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace
www-hoover.stanford.edu

History: This institute was founded in 1919 by Herbert Hoover, who later became president of the US. Its original mission was to collect documents relating to the First World War, and in the volume of its holdings its library is a world leader. The Institution hosts 60-some resident scholars and a research staff of over 200.

Research areas: Politics, economics, society, history, industrial policy, development, technology, agricultural, natural resources, security, international relations, law, and others, comprising a broad range of research. The current director is John Raisian.

Positions on Taiwan: Senior researchers Thomas Metzger and Ramon H. Myers specialize in Chinese economic history, Taiwanese history, and issues relating to China. In 1998 Metzger published Friendly U.S. Relations with an Undemocratic China? Weighing Contemporary Chinese Objections to Capitalism and Democracy. Metzger and Myers are seen as leaning towards Taiwan in their scholarly orientation.

Council on Foreign Relations
www.foreignrelations.org

History: Established in 1921, the current membership of the CFR exceeds 3,600. The Council is headquartered in New York City, with an office in Washington, DC.

Research Areas: US diplomacy, security, and international economic policy. Publishes the Foreign Affairs, which plays a leading role in the field of international relations. The current President is Leslie H. Gelb. China expert Jerome A. Cohen serves as a Senior Fellow in Asia Studies. A professor at Harvard University for many years, his past students include ROC Vice-President Annette Lu, Vice Premier Lai In-jaw, and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou. In 2000 the CFR invited President Chen Shui-bian to speak at a closed-door session, "Taiwan: An Update from its New President"

Programs/departments related to Taiwan and China: Robert Manning is director for Asia Studies; Elizabeth Economy is deputy director. Projects and working groups include Study Group on Constructive Engagement with China; Hong Kong Forum; Roundtable on Asia, the Rule of Law, and US Foreign Policy.

Positions on Taiwan: In terms of US maintenance of military capabilities in the Asia Pacific region, the US should maintain "strategic ambiguity" (i.e. leave open the possibility of US intervention) for deterrence. The US should oppose Taiwan unilaterally declaring independence, but should support Taiwan's membership in international organizations which do not require statehood. The US should hold to the Taiwan Relations Act to allow Taiwan to maintain credible military deterrence capabilities.

The Brookings Insititution
www.brookings.edu

History: Brookings' immediate predecessor, the Institute for Government Research, was founded in 1916 as the first private organization devoted to public policy issues at the national level. It merged with two other institutes in 1927 to form Brookings.

Research areas: Foreign policy, economics, government (especially in US government, including election funding reform and related mechanisms), foreign policy (including arms control, regional security, defense budgeting, crisis management, and military strategy). The president is former US ambassador to Japan Michael Armacost. Publishes Brookings Review quarterly, and Defense Budget annually.

Programs/departments related to Taiwan and China: The Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, established in 1998, has become a bastion of research on Taiwan and mainland China. Bates Gill is the current director, Catharin Dalpino is vice-director. Invites visiting researchers (academics, experts, journalists) from East Asia on a long-term basis.

Positions on Taiwan: Nicholas Lardy believes the US should lift all economic restrictions aimed at mainland China, and speed PRC entry into the WTO, but should let Beijing know that the US strongly resists the weakening of its relations with any other state in East Asia. Gill has long been studying the modernization of the Chinese military and efforts to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Dalpino argues that democratization in Taiwan has had a major effect on cross-strait relations.

American Enterprise Institute for Policy Research (AEI)
www.aei.org

History: Established in 1943. AEI's current president is Christopher DeMuth. John Bolton, formerly AEI senior vice president, serves in the Bush administration as undersecretary of state for arms control, non-proliferation, and international security.

Research areas: Economic, social and political issues, foreign affairs and national security.

Programs/departments related to Taiwan and China: The US Foreign and Defense Policy Group researches various Asian topics, including the PLA's capabilities, democratization in Taiwan, and cross-strait relations; the North Korean military threat and the potential for unifying Korea; and reforms on the mainland. Well-known China scholar David Lampton, retired diplomat James Lilley (see interview in this issue) and Lin Chong-pin (now vice-chairman of the ROC's Mainland Affairs Commission) have all worked at AEI.

Positions on Taiwan: Since 1991 it has joined the Chinese Council for Advanced Policy Studies in hosting yearly conferences about the modernization of the PLA. In 1996, at the seventh such conference, there was a discussion about the PRC missile tests off Taiwan. The position of the participating academics was that the US should once again promise to support Taiwan and convey to mainland China that the United States wants to pursue the benefits of peace. They held that perhaps time will resolve cross-strait tensions.

Heritage Foundation
www.heritage.org

History: Founded in 1973, the Heritage Foundation is regarded as a major think tank of conservatives. Its president, Edwin J. Feulner is familiar with most of the major conservative politicians. Elaine L. Chao, former chair of the Asian Studies Center Advisory Council, is now US secretary of labor. Stephen Yates, formerly the Heritage Foundation's senior China policy analyst, is now Vice President Cheney's Asian affairs advisor.

Research areas: All major US policy areas. Publications include the bi-monthly journal Policy Review and the Index of Economic Freedom.

Programs/departments related to Taiwan and China: Asian Studies Center and an Asian Office in Hong Kong.

Positions on Taiwan: On April 11, 1998 Kim R. Holmes, the Heritage Foundation vice president, and Stephen Yates wrote an opinion piece in the Washington Post entitled "To Protect Taiwan," which was a response to the position espoused by Joseph Nye in "A Taiwan Deal." They held that it was unfair to tell Taiwan to renounce its right to independence, while not asking China to renounce the use of force against Taiwan or promising US support for Taiwan's entry to international organizations. The best way for America to maintain peace and support democracy, they argued, was to prevent Beijing from isolating Taiwan in the international community, and also to help Taiwan deter a PRC military invasion.

The Rand Corporation
www.rand.org

History: The RAND Corporation evolved from "Project RAND," set up by the US military at the end of WWII. In 1948 it became an independent non-profit organization, but most of its annual budget of US$106 million still comes from the military. It employs more than 1,000 researchers.

Research areas: National defense, education and training, health care, civil and criminal law, labor and demographics, science and technology, community development, international relations and regional affairs.

Programs/departments related to Taiwan and China: The RAND Center for Asia-Pacific Policy focuses on US policy toward the region, as well as the region's political economy, demographics, education, and transportation environment.

Positions on Taiwan: Under the Taiwan Relations Act America is obliged to sell Taiwan sufficient defensive weapons; cross-strait issues must be settled politically rather than militarily.

Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)
www.csis.org

History: Established in 1962, its headquarters is in Washington, where it employs 80 researchers. The Pacific Forum, founded in 1975 in Hawaii, is also part of CSIS, although it has a separate budget. CSIS performs strategic analysis, calling together decision makers and influential persons to come together, hold discussions and make policy. Former US assistant secretary of defense John Hamre is president of CSIS. Former president Robert Zoellick has become US trade representative, and former Pacific Forum president James Kelly is now in charge of Asia-Pacific affairs at the State Department. Both have close ties to the Bush White House.

Research areas: Politics, economics, military affairs, foreign affairs, national security, regional affairs, the environment, and organized crime.

Programs/departments related to Taiwan and China: Apart from holding a round-table discussion in Taipei and core-group seminar in Hong Kong every year, CSIS' Asian research center also arranges for ROC scholars and officials to attend meetings at CSIS. In March 1998, the Hong Kong group published Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan: A Triangular Relationship. The Pacific Forum has close ties to the ROC's Institute for National Policy Research and the Philippines' Institute for Strategic and Development Studies.

Positions on Taiwan: The US should stress to mainland China the importance of the South China Sea to American interests. The US should hold firm to the "one China" policy and act in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act and the three Joint Communiques between the US and PRC.

Cato Institute
www.cato.org

History: Established in 1977, the Cato Institute seeks to keep public policy debate true to the principles of limited government and individual liberty.

Research areas: Telecommunications and technology; foreign affairs and national security; trade, emigration, education, finance, health care, and the information industry. Publications include the CATO Journal and the CATO Policy Report.

Programs/departments related to Taiwan and China: Defense and Foreign Policy Studies.

Positions on Taiwan: Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at Cato, wrote an article entitled "Let Taiwan Defend Itself" which argues that America ought to help Taiwan to defend itself and deter mainland China from invading Taiwan by supplying the arms that Taiwan wants.