Talking About Taiwan--A Conversation Between Bo Yang and Tai Kuo-hui

Bo Yang has long been a forceful advocate of human rights in Taiwan. Tai Kuo-hui, a former member of the president's National Security Council, is a professor emeritus at Japan's Rikkyo University. Both are well-known authors who have written extensively on history and contemporary affairs.

Tai Kuo-hui: I think it was a very good idea on your part at Sinorama to ask us to talk about both the past and the future. One needs to do both. The most distinctive aspect of Lee Teng-hui's twelve years as president has been his unreflective attitude. With him it has always been, "Damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead." He has always talked about what he intends to achieve, and what his mission is, but has seldom taken a look back at the past. Without looking back, there can be no critical reflection. With a new party headed into the presidential palace, I think the most important thing for Taiwan as a society is to look at where it has been in order to get an idea about where it should be going. I wonder whether Bo Yang would agree.

Bo Yang: We certainly need to take a look at Taiwan's past. I think that all the problems we encountered during Lee Teng-hui's tenure as president have their roots in the Japanese colonial period. A lot of people in Taiwan today look back fondly upon the colonial period. They often speak positively about how good law and order was back then, but very few people realize what Japanese colonial rule was all about in the final analysis. They showed the Taiwanese people more discrimination than respect, and the people of Taiwan paid a high price for it. That's part of the reason why, after Taiwan was recovered from the Japanese, people here had such unrealistically high expectations of the Kuomintang (KMT).

The people were really excited and happy when the KMT first came to Taiwan, and no one paid any attention to the departing Japanese when they warned, "Don't go thinking that we lost the war to China. They're no match for us." Later everyone's high hopes for the KMT were dashed, and it led to the February 28th Incident.

As for Chiang Kai-shek's rule, he did in fact protect Taiwan, and Taiwan protected him as well. Looking at the big picture, it is clear that both Japan and the Chiang family had a huge impact on Taiwan, but ethnicity is a much more important issue now for Taiwan. Ethnic strife stems from an irrational aspect of Chinese culture-we're very cliquish. In mainland China this mentality gets people divided along very parochial lines. Forget about people from different provinces, there are actually people from neighboring towns with just a few vocabulary differences in their local dialects who get at each other's throats. We Chinese are always fighting amongst ourselves.

Shown here is a 17th-century map of the port of Keelung, one of the island's key ports during the period of Spanish rule. （courtesy of Shegaon）

Cliques and spats

Tai: Your point about the tendency of us Chinese to fight amongst ourselves reminds me that xenophobia, which is a part of human nature, can easily lead to ethnic conflict. Taiwan has to do what Academia Sinica president Lee Yuan-tseh called for-to "become a part of the global village" and stop getting riled up over such things as social status, whether people come from the mainland or Taiwan, or what ethnic group you belong to. Otherwise, if the xenophobic side of Taiwanese culture combines with anti-mainlander and anti-KMT sentiment, it could lead to ethnic conflict.

For quite a long time after Taiwan reverted to Chinese rule, the KMT didn't give local Taiwanese a fair chance to enter the upper echelons of political power. The KMT was just trying to keep a grip on power and maintain its claim to be the legitimate ruler of all of China. That's why people criticized them as being no different than the Japanese, that they were just another outside power ruling over Taiwan. The idea that "the KMT is an outside power," the focus in recent years on our Taiwanese roots, and xenophobia all contributed in the past to the great support that Lee Teng-hui enjoyed among Taiwanese.

I'm not saying that President Lee was a dictator just like Joseph Stalin, mind you, but the situation in Taiwan after the Chiang era came to an end was a lot like the situation in the Soviet Union after Stalin came to power. Why would the people of Russia topple the czar and then turn around and countenance an even more ruthless dictatorship for 74 years? I think it was because Stalin championed the cause of Russian nationalism. Also, Stalin's system of feudal serfdom was slightly better than that run by the czar, and this gained him the support of the Russian masses. Everyone was willing to make allowances for him.

Let me stress once again that I'm not calling President Lee a dictator. What I'm saying is that during his twelve years as president he tapped into the ethnic sensitivities of the Taiwanese. He occupies a special place in the hearts of the Taiwanese for some of the same reasons that Stalin enjoyed the support of the Russian people. In comparison with Chiang Kai-shek and Chiang Ching-kuo, Lee Teng-hui gave local Taiwanese much greater opportunities for advancement, and in so doing he satisfied their pent up desire to have their place in the sun.

As the first Taiwanese president, Lee Teng-hui's success did a lot to assuage the anger of the Taiwanese people about the discrimination they had experienced. This won him a lot of support. On top of that, once in power he implemented a policy of shifting the island's cultural center of gravity away from mainland China and more toward Taiwan itself, and he criticized the KMT as being "a regime of outsiders." These positions won him 54% of the vote in the first direct presidential election.

During this year's election campaign, however, Chen Li-an-the former head of the Control Yuan-and lots of other people inside the KMT made statements about how corrupt the KMT had become. It seems apparent that a lot of people decided that Lee Teng-hui's ability to tap into the energy generated by ethnic tensions was no longer sufficient reason to countenance the KMT's involvement with "black gold" politics and other forms of corruption. It is also apparent that the people of Taiwan had another demand of the government, and this demand was beginning to grow stronger.

A-bian (Chen Shui-bian) has indeed inherited the Lee Teng-hui line in some ways, but Lee's move toward a more Taiwan-centered culture has already run its course. Furthermore, the old "KMT as a regime of outsiders" issue is no longer of any use. The logic of this idea is flawed, and the people have shown that they don't buy it. After A-bian takes office, he'll need to be very aware of this.

Bo: Lee didn't talk about the "regime of outsiders" thing until late in his presidency. If the February 28th Incident hadn't ever occurred, or if the KMT hadn't kept Taiwanese out of the top levels of government in the early years after coming to Taiwan, it's possible that Lee Teng-hui would never have talked about it at all. The people of Taiwan had such high hopes after the KMT recovered the island from Japan. There was a strong spirit of Chinese patriotism, but KMT rule turned out to be anything but what the people were hoping for.

Suppose somebody kidnaps a boy. That child would long for his mother to come and take him back home. But now suppose that the mother actually does take him back home, and she turns out to be even more cruel than the kidnappers. That's pretty much what happened to Taiwan, and it caused immense psychological damage. I think the people of Taiwan must have felt as follows after the KMT took over from Japan: "Sure, the Japanese mistreated us, but that was only to be expected, for they were invaders. You, however, are our own people. You shouldn't be acting this way." Chiang Kai-shek wanted to be a dictator, but he didn't dare. He wanted democracy, but he thought it too risky. He considered himself an emperor, but he always talked about benevolent rule. The people of Taiwan despised him for it.

This woodblock print shows naval and land battles between the Dutch and the forces of Zheng Chenggong. （from Dialogue entre la photographie et l'histoire, Hsiung Shih Art Books）

Equal opportunity in education

Tai: The historical verdict on the rule of Chiang Kai-shek and Chiang Ching-kuo is not yet in, but my point is that it is not fair to say that "the KMT is a regime of outsiders." Sure, it's great fun to hammer on the theme of "a regime of outsiders" during an election campaign. It makes for a great political slogan. But I don't think people ever understood clearly what that term means in a rigorous, academic sense.

It is illogical to call the KMT a regime of outsiders. When you look at history, you will see that there has never been a regime of outsiders that allowed equal access to education for all of its subjects. During the Japanese colonial period, did a Taiwanese sharecropper's son have the opportunity to go to senior high school? The KMT came to Taiwan and opened the doors of education to everyone. They didn't discriminate against anyone in this regard.

Mind you, they did give some mainlanders special consideration for civil service jobs. They were able to take the back door to get around testing requirements and get themselves hired. It is a fact that mainlanders benefited financially from their status as mainlanders. Some of these problems no longer exist, while others linger on. We have to use the legal system to resolve these problems, so that everyone can enjoy equal opportunity.

That's why I think that after Chen Shui-bian takes office he will need to think about what it really means when one says that "the KMT is a regime of outsiders." He cannot say on the one hand that "we do not deny that we are the Republic of China" and then turn right around and call the KMT a regime of outsiders. Direct elections have nothing to do with ethnicity. It's one person, one vote. It's perfectly natural for a president with a weak mandate to want to make noise about a regime of outsiders, but once the high tide of ethnic resentment has passed, people will start thinking rationally, and a more savvy electorate will pose new challenges to A-bian.

Bo: I'm very worried about ethnic conflict. Since the election, people have asked me whether I thought that mainlanders would be discriminated against under the new regime. I tell them that Chen Shui-bian's talk of "Taiwan independence" was the talk of a politician on the hustings, not of a standing president. Will mainlanders be discriminated against? Just take a look at who got the votes. Chen Shui-bian got 5 million. James Soong got 4.7 million. How do you explain the fact that Chen only beat Soong by 2.5% percentage points?

Some people say that mainlanders voted for Soong and Taiwanese voted for Chen, but that doesn't hold water. There are only three million mainlanders in Taiwan, even when you count the babies, so where did Soong get his 4.7 million votes? It's clear that there were Taiwanese voting for Soong and mainlanders voting for Chen. So why would anyone expect Taiwanese to discriminate against mainlanders after Chen Shui-bian takes office?

I wanted to touch on another subject. I really thought this was an excellent election. We've never had an election like this one, where "everyone had a chance, and no one could be sure who would win." That's democracy. An American TV station that interviewed me during the campaign asked, "Why are the candidates getting into mudslinging?" I answered, "It's better to sling mud than bullets. It's better to count ballots than heads." I don't know how Chen Shui-bian will change after he takes office, but he should remember the saying they have in the West: "Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely."

Portrait of Zheng Chenggong, also known as Koxinga. （reprinted from The Authentic Story of Taiwan）

The right stuff

Tai: With regard to the question of whether Chen Shui-bian will rule in a dictatorial manner, I think that Academia Sinica president Lee Yuan-tseh, who is head of the National Policy Advisory Committee, can play a positive role in this regard. I think there is a certain degree of overlap between the "Lee Yuan-tseh phenomenon" and the "Lee Teng-hui phenomenon." One is the first Taiwanese president, and the other is the first Taiwanese Nobel Prize winner. Each man's career represents a kind of milestone achievement for the Taiwanese.

In response to your comments about the voting percentages, there are those who say that Chen Shui-bian was able to get 39% of the vote because he was the one seen as carrying forward with the politics of Lee Teng-hui, but he only finished 2.5 percentage points ahead of Soong, who wasn't associated with the Lee Teng-hui line. How do we explain that? A Japanese reporter asked me, "Did Soong get so many votes because all the Hakkas voted for him?" I said, "That's ridiculous. Who would be able to buy off Hakka voters?" We saw very clearly in this election that the old-style democracy, in which everyone in the family votes as instructed by the head of the household, no longer exists.

Around the time when President Lee visited Cornell University in 1995, his popularity was riding high, and he talked a lot about "what the people want." Well, the people wanted to take their place in the sun, but that desire has been somewhat sated since then. This election has shown the limitations of a political strongman. No one can afford to overestimate his own abilities, because the people aren't blind. Some people say that Lee Teng-hui had given up on Lien Chan and thrown veiled support to Chen Shui-bian, and that Lee had secretly encouraged his supporters to vote for Chen, but if that is true, then why did Chen Shui-bian get so few votes?

Bo: With regard to the question of leadership, I think the most important quality in a leader is to be a big enough person to accommodate others and tolerate different viewpoints. Before the KMT nominated the Lien-Siew ticket, I had been thinking about writing a letter to Lee Teng-hui to urge him to consider Soong as the KMT nominee, but I figured there was no way he would listen to such advice. I was worried he might actually think I was placing myself in the Soong camp, so I decided against writing the letter. I think that a leader must be big in spirit if he's going to do big things. It's easy to talk about being accommodating toward others, but it's much harder to do. The second emperor of the Tang dynasty, Tang Taizong, had a trusted advisor named Wei Zheng who told the emperor to his face, "You aren't the man you once were. There was a time when people offering criticism brought a smile to your face. Gradually the smile disappeared, and you would just nod your head. Now when you hear criticism, you scowl." A lot of leaders are incapable of accepting criticism.

I think there are several things that A-bian will have to do after taking office. First, he will have to ensure the independence of the judicial system. Second, he will have to establish systemic checks upon the presidency, such as the Legislative Yuan. Third, he must respect the civil service system. I've always felt that power, money, and love are the three most fatal attractions, and I've always said that there's a poisoned splinter on every throne. When you first sit on it you feel a bit uneasy, but that gradually goes away, and you end up actually liking the feel of it.

Tai: You're saying that a leader has to guard against human foibles, but I think the other side of the same coin is the ability to accommodate others. When James Soong named Chang Chao-hsiung as his running mate, it showed Soong's ability to accommodate the Taiwanese. Chang Chao-hsiung is a native Taiwanese and president of Chang Gung Memorial Hospital as well as Chang Gung University. KMT propaganda claims that Soong got as many votes as he did by spreading government largesse far and wide, but I disagree. I think he did well because he showed humility and was willing to include a Taiwanese person on his ticket.

What does it mean when we say we are moving toward a Taiwan-centered culture? It means we're emphasizing grassroots society. A true move toward a Taiwan-centered culture must, to the greatest extent possible, satisfy the needs of everyone in Taiwan, including the Hokkienese, the Hakkas, the aborigines, and post-1945 mainlanders. I notice that A-bian used to refer to Morris Chang, the chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, as a hua ren (ethnic Chinese). It's as if he were implying that someone like Morris Chang, who grew up in mainland China before emigrating to the US and from there coming to Taiwan, is not as Taiwanese as A-bian himself. A-bian has got a problem there that he hasn't overcome. Taiwan is already on its way to becoming a high-tech leader. We have to draw a circle that takes everybody in. Everybody has to be included among "the new Taiwanese."

Bo: Morris Chang is one of the three million "mainlanders" in Taiwan. Discriminating against these people is definitely not in the best interests of Taiwan. Wei Ting-chao (now deceased), a Hakka member of the DPP, once said that Hakkas don't believe that Taiwan would be better off if all the mainlanders were booted off the island, because the Hakkas value the mainlanders as a fellow minority. Minorities naturally have to be united to ensure that the government of the future seeks to accommodate all ethnic groups.

A map of Taiwan made by the French in the 19th century. （courtesy of Shegaon）

Positive approach to China

Tai: The biggest issue facing Chen Shui-bian after he takes office is cross-strait relations. He once said that Taiwan cannot afford to make one wrong move in this area. Zhu Rongji did indeed make some threatening statements just ahead of the election, but he also said something very interesting-"Chinese can deal flexibly with Chinese." Quite a lot can be inferred from that.

In my opinion, everybody is too pessimistic about cross-strait relations. The new government needs to act with caution, to be sure, but the mainland must also be willing to accommodate Taiwan. I published a book in 1994 in which I likened cross-strait relations to a pair of testicles. My point was that a man's testicles (Taiwan) have to be outside the body to produce sperm and increase the man's vitality. It's not necessarily a good thing for them to be inside the body cavity. The metaphor may be a bit uncouth, but it does describe cross-strait relations quite nicely. Cooperation is in both our interests. Fighting will leaving us both battered and bruised.

Bo: This election has shattered the idea that only the KMT can govern Taiwan. It is wonderful that we will see a peaceful transfer of power. The strength of a party like the DPP, which has never before been the ruling party, is that it isn't weighed down by the past. Its weakness, on the other hand, is a lack of experience. Someone who has suddenly risen up out of poverty is generally much more cautious with his money than someone who has spent his whole life surrounded by wealth.

The new government will have to learn the lessons that Chinese history teaches. It can't allow itself to get caught up in the quagmire of corruption. We Chinese tend to muddle our way through tough decisions and controversies instead of facing them head-on, and in this non-confrontational atmosphere corruption gets its hooks into one and all. The Chinese metaphor for this situation is very descriptive-we call it the "pickle barrel culture." We must make an effort to rise above our "pickle barrel culture."

I would like to warn about another Chinese cultural archetype that the DPP has to guard against-the bullying mother-in-law. How many millions of Chinese women have suffered for years under their mothers-in-law only to become bullying mothers-in-law themselves? The DPP can't let itself fall into that trap.

Tai: I agree that this election showed the wisdom of the voters of Taiwan. I think Taiwan's fledgling civil society is moving towards maturity.

Bo: No matter what happens, we must not lose faith in democracy, otherwise we will soon find ourselves living under a dictatorship. During the Taipei mayoral election campaign two years ago, some people came over from the mainland to observe the process. They were very surprised to find that by the day after the election, the campaign flyers and pennants that had been put up all over the city were already gone. They asked, "Who took them down?" I said, "Each candidate took care of his own." That's democracy.

Tai: Taiwan is also going to have to deal with economic issues and the problem of "black gold" politics. We can't just pin our hopes on Lee Yuan-tseh. Everybody has to pitch in. We're not living in a cowboy movie, and we can't hire a lone gunslinger to solve all our problems. If we're going to do away with black gold politics, everybody has to get together and stand behind our judiciary and police. I think Taiwan is facing a totally new situation. Lee Teng-hui had a chance to be a true statesman, but he slowly fell into the traps that ensnare the more run-of-the-mill politician. He started focusing on scoring cheap political points, and he tripped himself up in the end. Chen Shui-bian, on the other hand, has always been just another politician seeking the easiest political expedient. It will be interesting to see whether he develops into a real statesman.

Small and medium-sized business make up the backbone of Taiwan's economy, and the problem we now face is that our competitiveness will suffer unless we make good use of our mainland Chinese hinterland. Take the example of Chang Yung-fa, boss of the Evergreen Group. He has been calling strongly for an end to the "go slow, be patient" policy regarding economic relations with the mainland. Why? Because without the mainland market, Taiwan's economy will hit a brick wall, and without a very competitive economy, our politics will be less democratic.

Bo: Our democracy is a very precious thing, and we absolutely cannot allow it to be destroyed. There are a lot of things that could destroy our democracy. The lack of an independent judiciary would do it. So would economic decline, be it sharp and quick or long and slow. Hunger and cold will turn a man into a thief. If you're only taking in 800 calories a day, you're going to be in an unstable frame of mind. If your daily intake drops to 600 calories, you lose your sense of shame. At 400 per day, social order disintegrates.

Tai: The only way to keep an individual leader in a democratic system from evolving into a dictator is to establish a strong system of checks and balances. One part of this system is a strong news media.

Bo: After Abraham Lincoln was elected US president he got down on his knees and prayed. I hope A-bian also turns out to be this type of man. I also hope that everyone in Taiwan, both officials and everyday people, will believe in the rule of law. In Germany there was an emperor who wanted to expand his manor onto land owned by a farmer. The emperor offered the farmer money in exchange for his land, but the farmer said, "I don't want your money. This is my land." The emperor threatened to send soldiers to run the farmer off his land, and the farmer responded, "If you do that, I'll sue you." The emperor was extremely moved by the man's respect for and faith in the law, and apologized to the farmer. That's what the rule of law is all about. I hope that we in Taiwan can also demonstrate that same spirit.

Tai: Healthy interaction with mainland China is also very important for the sake of Taiwan's development. We shouldn't be thinking about how to give them a black eye, but how to give them the right kind of stimulus. We can best defend ourselves not by relying on military hardware, but by using the collective will of the people to persuade the people of mainland China that everyone in Taiwan has the right to his place in the sun. We have the right to live in a land of equality and fairness where our leaders work for the public good. If we can achieve that, we might just be able to break the stalemate in cross-strait relations.

Bo Yang

Born: Hui County, Henan Province. Began using the pen name of Bo Yang in the 1960s to write about the dark side of Chinese culture. Arrested in 1968 for sowing discontent between the government and the people. Released from prison on 1 April, 1977. Wrote extensively after his release from prison, and published a number of highly noted works, including The Alien Realm and The Ugly Chinaman. Has devoted himself in recent years to the promotion of human rights. Worked on the preparation of the Green Island Human Rights Monument, which was opened to the public on 10 December, 1999.

Tai Kuo-hui

Born: 1931, Taoyuan County, Taiwan. Received a Master's and Ph.D. in agriculture from Tokyo University. Organized a research group in Japan to study Taiwanese and Asian affairs when it was still illegal in Taiwan to research the history of Taiwan. Was placed on the government's blacklist of people abroad not allowed to return to Taiwan. Former research fellow and director of the Research Division at Japan's Institute of Developing Economies. Former head of the School of International Studies at Rikkyo University. Returned to Taiwan in 1996 and accepted a position on the president's National Security Council. Currently a professor of history at Chinese Culture University.

Shown here is a portrait of the Fujian Maritime Administrator, Shen Baozhen, who worked actively to develop Taiwan. （from Dialogue entre la photographie et I'histoire）

Taiwanese aborigines of the late 19th century. （from Dialogue entre la photographie et I'histoire）

Bamboo grows in abundance throughout Taiwan. Sampans made of bamboo were once a very common sight. Bamboo rafts with wooden barrels to seat passengers could carry up to four people. （from Dialogue entre la photographie et I'histoire）

Missionaries made a huge contribution to Taiwanese society. Shown here is a portrait of the family of George Leslie Mackay, a missionary who introduced advanced medical practices to Taiwan. （courtesy of Wei Te-wen）

The Presidential Palace was originally built by the Japanese as the headquarters for the governor-general of the colonial administration. （from Foreign Buildings in Taiwan, Creation Publishing Co.）

A child is shown here selling fruit at a stall in Chiayi. Note the Japanese attire of the child buying from him. （from Taiwanese Scenes, Creation Publishing Co.）

From Ilan in the north to Nantou in central Taiwan, the Japanese erected a barbed-wire fence to limit the activities of aborigines. （from Dialogue entre la photographie et I'histoire）

Mechanized farming was employed on Taiwan sugar cane farms as early as 1920. The picture shows a Taiwan Sugar plantation in Chaiotoutzai in Kaohsiung County. （from Beautiful Labor, published by Creation Publishing Co.）

A map printed in Japan in 1901. （courtesy of Shegaon）

In February of 1947, an incident over the arrest of someone selling cigarettes in violation of the government monopoly sparked the February 28th Incident, the worst political turmoil to visit Taiwan in the past 50 years. Angry protesters are shown here outside the Taiwan Tobacco and Wine Monopoly Bureau in Taipei. （courtesy of the Taipei 228 Memorial Museum）

The first cross-island highway opened in 1956. This was an important early accomplishment for Chiang Ching-kuo, and also helped settle many veterans who followed the ROC government to Taiwan in 1949. （courtesy of the KMT Historical Commission）

This 1988 photo shows legislator Ju Gao-jeng leaping onto a desk in protest over budget appropriations for education, science, and cultural affairs. Such eye-catching protests helped spur efforts to hold new elections for Taiwan's parliamentary bodies. （photo by Huang Tzu-ming）

After the US broke off diplomatic relations with the ROC at the end of 1978, protesters took to the streets to express their outrage. （courtesy of the China Times Data Center）

Local Taiwanese rejoiced when the KMT recovered Taiwan from the Japanese in 1945. Shown here is a banner on Yenping North Road greeting the Chinese arrival. The ROC flag in the middle of the banner has been put on backwards, with the blue square and white sun in the wrong corner-a telling indication of how little the people of Taiwan actually understood about mainland China. （courtesy of Tai Kuo-hui）

In 1975, Chiang Kai-shek passed away after ruling Taiwan for 26 years. His death brought the first generation of strongman rule to an end. People are shown here kneeling by the roadside waiting for Chiang's hearse to pass by. （courtesy of the China Times Data Center）

In late 1979, a demonstration organized by Formosa magazine ended in a major confrontation with police in Kaohsiung and led to the arrest of a large number of political dissidents. People throughout Taiwan were awakened to the existence of an opposition movement, and began to question the political system. （Sinorama file photo）

Just two weeks before his death in 1988, Chiang Ching-kuo took part in a ceremony to mark the anniversary of the founding of the Republic of China. Vice President Lee Teng-hui （right） was Chiang's anointed successor. In his later years Chiang Ching-kuo lifted martial law, ended the prohibition against new newspapers and other media organizations, and began allowing people to visit relatives in mainland China. All of these reforms have been seen as important steps toward a democratic Taiwan. （photo by Yang Yung-chih）

Lee Teng-hui is Taiwan's first native-born president, and his success in reaching this pinnacle has earned him the support of Taiwanese, who have longed for centuries to become the masters of their own island. His popularity peaked at the time of the island's first direct presidential election. （photo by Liu Su-ning, courtesy of the Office of the President）

The DPP's Chen Shui-bian and Annette Lu were elected ROC president and vice-president on 18 March, 2000. （photo by Jimmy Lin）

After ruling continuously for over 50 years in Taiwan, the KMT was recently toppled for the first time ever in a popular election. Unaccustomed to seeing their party out of power, many KMT supporters protested in front of the KMT headquarters. Will things change for the better or for worse over the next few years? It depends largely on ethnic relations, cross-strait ties, and the economy. （photo by Pu Hua-chih）