Not Just a Lot of Hot Air Taiwan's Role in the Global Warming Challenge

Now that the lunar new year is over, probably the most exciting news for environmentalists in Taiwan is the announcement by Taiwan Power Company that it will invest NT$34 billion in wind power. Moreover, for the third phase of construction of privately run electrical power plants, only plants employing natural gas, which produce relatively low levels of greenhouse gases, will be approved. But these two news items cannot compare to the announcement last year by the Office of the President stating that solar power cells would be installed on the Presidential Palace, which was even more important as a symbol.

Although efforts at developing renewable energy in Taiwan in recent years have been due in part to the practical difficulty of finding locations for power plants, and to the government's policy of creating a "green homeland," an even more important stimulus has been the international demand to lower greenhouse gases. There is a widespread international consensus that, as a special gift to the Rio+10 Earth Summit to be held in September 2002, the Kyoto Protocol, which aims at controlling greenhouse gases, should formally go into effect at that time. Thereafter, under pressure from the international community and the threat of trade sanctions, developing countries, as well as Taiwan, which is not a signatory of the Kyoto agreement, will have to actively demonstrate to the international community that they are making efforts to reduce greenhouse gases.

UNFCCC

Since the industrial revolution began in the early 19th century, industrial societies have rapidly increased their consumption of fossil fuels like petroleum and coal. Large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) are produced in the course of burning or fractional distillation of such fuels. By the end of the year 2000, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was about 1.5 times the level of the early 19th century. If nothing is done to control the situation soon, by 2050, the concentration will be double the level it was before the industrial revolution.

Carbon dioxide traps some of the infrared heat emitted from the Earth and prevents that heat from going back out into space (as it ordinarily would). The natural level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 0.03%, yet even this small amount is enough to keep the earth at a temperature suitable for human habitation by acting like a covering of greenhouse glass over the planet. But if there is excess CO2 trapping too much heat in the atmosphere, the result is inescapable "heat pollution."

Because climate warming causes irreversible damage, at the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992, the United Nations adopted the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in the hopes that the entire planet could work together to attack greenhouse gases.

In order to achieve real reductions in greenhouse gases, in 1998, at a meeting held in Japan, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC added the "Kyoto Protocol" to the Framework Convention. The protocol divides the world into two groups: The first consists of the highly developed countries, which produce large amounts of emissions. These are called the Annex B countries under the protocol (and are also often called the Annex I countries, because that is how they are known in the UNFCCC). The other group consists of the non-annex nations, mainly from the developing world. The protocol stipulates that Annex B countries must endeavor to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2010, after which they should further reduce emissions by 6%. So far 165 countries have signed the agreement, and it is hoped that the Kyoto Protocol will formally go into effect in September of this year.

Changing the way we live

Fossil fuels are deeply embedded in our daily lives. They are required for virtually all electrical power and fuel, and industries such as petrochemicals and steel; indeed it is hard to find any modern economic sector that does not need them. Therefore, to demand a decrease in CO2 emissions is asking people to accept a dramatic adjustment to modern life, with a corresponding impact on the economy.

For example, as mainland China has rapidly developed in recent years, its CO2 emissions have ballooned to five times the level of 20 years ago. When you consider that the mainland, like other non-annex countries, is not up to speed in technical efficiency or environmental protection, and that reduction of emissions would require paying a considerable cost, the result is that these nations, led by mainland China, are only half-hearted and are engaging in negotiations and trade-offs with the developed countries in an effort to minimize restrictions on their behavior.

The economically developed countries have their own objections. The Kyoto Protocol will only go into effect if the combined volume of CO2 emissions of the signatory countries exceeds 55% of the world total. The US is the single largest producer of greenhouse gases, accounting for 36% in 1990. Last year President Bush created a huge controversy when he announced that he opposed the Kyoto Protocol. Fortunately, recently the COP has been working to achieve a tacit agreement to pass new regulations at the September 2002 Earth Summit. Besides focusing a sharp eye on the attitude of the US, the organization will also adopt a proposal that by 2005 at the latest, non-annex countries must put forward concrete programs for dealing with their greenhouse gas emissions.

In fact, whether or not the Kyoto Protocol goes into effect, reduction measures are already being developed in many countries. This includes the US, which, although not willing to make any promises, nevertheless is the most active country in developing new energy sources to reduce greenhouse gases. This is because global warming will create heatwaves, storms, and flooding that will hit the US as hard as anywhere else, so global warming cannot be fobbed off as "the other guy's problem."

13 tons per head

Taiwan convened its first National Energy Conference in 1998. At the conference, it was proposed that by the year 2020 Taiwan's greenhouse gas emissions be no higher than the level of the year 2000. Taiwan Power Company and China Petroleum Corporation also began efforts to reduce reliance on coal and petroleum, working to increase the proportion of natural gas employed. The conference also called on the government and industry to work to reduce consumption of energy and increase energy efficiency.

However, just as there have been incessant disputes over reduction measures internationally, delaying implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, "Correspondingly, Taiwan has no large-scale program in place and has not taken any major steps that could guide policy," says Liu Chung-ming, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Taiwan University (NTU). The task of reducing greenhouse gas emissions involves the economy, law, transportation, and environmental protection. Draft legislation of proposed measures to be taken in response to the UNFCCC is still stuck in ROC government agencies, and there are no specific regulations to protect the atmosphere or reduce emissions.

Moreover, although Taiwan is not considered a developed country, its export-oriented economy, with its large manufacturing sector, produces more greenhouse gases than many developed countries. In 1988 Taiwan produced an average of 9.8 tons of CO2 per capita, ranking 22nd in the world. "At the current rate of increase," says Lu Jhy-ming, director of the Sustainable Energy Research Division of the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), "by 2020, the figure will have increased to 16 tons per capita, almost twice the current level," and Taiwan will have the dubious honor of having moved up even further in the global rankings.

The heat is on

Besides the problem of creating CO2 by burning fossil fuels, there is also growing discussion about Taiwan's "contribution" to other greenhouse gas emissions.

CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas that causes global warming, and greenhouse gases do not all come from fossil fuels. The Kyoto Protocol lists six such materials, including CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Of these six, CO2 is easily the one most produced by human activity. But when it comes to potential for creating the greenhouse effect, the other five gases are all far beyond CO2.

Take methane for example. Farms and garbage dumps are the leading sources of methane. Certain types of microbes in the stomachs of ruminant livestock cause these animals to produce methane during the digestive process. In New Zealand, methane generated by the sheep farming industry accounts for 43% of the total volume of methane produced by that country. Agriculture experts are already searching for forage additives that will control microbes of that type.

In Taiwan, rice paddies are the main bastions of methane production. Lai Chao-ming, a professor of agricultural chemistry at NTU, has recently completed a three-year study of greenhouse gases produced by agriculture, and has found that every year Taiwan produces more than 30 million metric tons of CO2 and methane through farm activities, including wet paddy production and use of fertilizers. Lai has come up with a number of methods to bring down this number, such as increasing the use of marsh gas recycling equipment, reducing the length of time of inundation of paddy land, improving fertilizer-use techniques, and even developing new strains of rice that would produce lower amounts of methane.

The Environmental Protection Administration has commissioned ITRI and academics to come up with rough estimates of the amounts of greenhouse gases produced by the various economic sectors, and of how much these might be reduced. Environmental authorities hope, furthermore, that the draft legislation of measures for responding to the UNFCCC will be passed within three months.

Here comes the sun

ITRI's Lu Jhy-ming says that, under time pressure, non-annex countries such as Argentina and Korea have already begun to come up with policies. Using models based on international calculations of the relationship between economic growth and emissions, ITRI has also estimated that as the economy grows Taiwan can endeavor to reduce emissions by 20%. It is hoped that by the year 2020, the level of per capita emissions will be held to 13 tons.

However, once targets have been set, the most important thing is how to reach them in practice. "In the future, besides seeking appropriate opportunities to announce our objectives to the outside world, we must do even more detailed analyses within our country of the ability of every industry and sector to reduce emissions, and the burden each can and should bear," says Lu. To do this, the costs of reducing greenhouse gases will have to be estimated, the order and the priority of reduction strategies will have to be established, and all potential options for reduction (including cutting back trash volume at the individual level and changing the structure of consumption) will have to be assessed.

However, a faster and more effective method would be to strongly promote clean energy within the country's energy development strategy. Although nuclear power does not produce greenhouse gases, the controversies that rage over the safety of nuclear plants and the disposal of nuclear waste are prohibitive; nor does the COP encourage countries to develop nuclear energy. Thus, "renewable energy" sources such as wind and solar power, despite the high costs of researching and developing these alternatives, are inevitable. Next year Taiwan Power Company will finally take the plunge and invest a large amount of money in a wind power program.

While a comprehensive energy policy is one approach, there are also others. "In the future," explains Lu Jhy-ming, "the COP will move in the direction of environmental regulations to stimulate business to be more willing to reduce emissions, and products that require higher levels of greenhouse gases to make will be increasingly discriminated against in trade." Companies which are fast on their feet have already jumped ahead and set internal reduction targets.

Corporate responsibility

Two years ago, Taiwan's electronics manufacturers promised that by 2010 they would try to reduce greenhouse gases emitted during production by 10%. Three years ago, China Steel Corporation took the initiative to improve its production processes, and has been actively working with downstream operators to reduce CO2 emissions.

Internationally, green technologies and trade aimed at reducing greenhouse gases are becoming more prominent. In Japan, automobile manufacturers are competing with each other to raise the energy efficiency of their vehicles, taking the average of the 10 most fuel-efficient vehicles as the standard. British Petroleum (BP) is hoping that its initials will one day stand more appropriately for "Beyond Petroleum," because oil will eventually run out and we will need to develop renewable energy sources.

In order to encourage countries to actively reduce emissions, the COP has prepared a number of tools which countries can utilize flexibly. These tools include collective reductions, swaps (in which countries are allowed to trade their quotas), and the "Clean Development Mechanism." This has already led to a lively international trade in CO2 quotas.

Trees please!

For example, recently Russia and countries from the European Union have invested in renewable energy in India, developing wind and water power to the tune of US$5 billion. The relative decrease in greenhouse gases in India can be discounted from their own output to reduce the pressures on themselves to reduce domestic emissions. Lu Jhy-ming suggests that, given Taiwan's technology, in future Taiwan should seek opportunities for international cooperation to draw down Taiwan's required reductions by getting credits for improving production processes in other countries.

Besides adjusting production processes and improving energy efficiency, recently the Council of Agriculture has come up with another reduction strategy that is quite farsighted. The COA aims to collect a "carbon tax" from companies to create a budget for reforestation. Because trees have the capability of fixing CO2, Russia and other countries won agreement that reforestation be counted as a greenhouse gas reduction tool, and it is now being employed by a number of countries.

Wei Kuo-yen, a professor of geology at NTU, explains: "Although CO2 has a long life-cycle, nature itself is able to appropriately store it, so that atmospheric CO2 levels remain stable." All organic matter includes hydrocarbons, and releases carbon after death. But forests, the ocean, soil, and the lithosphere are like warehouses. For example, plants and animals that die and are buried underground will, under high pressure and high temperatures, be preserved as coal and petroleum. If these are not dug up and burned, it is unlikely that they will ever be converted into CO2.

Recently NTU produced a report on the contribution of reforestation toward reducing CO2 in Taiwan's environment. It notes that preliminary estimates suggest that four hectares of forest will, after ten years, be able to store 180 metric tons of CO2, which is roughly equivalent to the amount produced by an individual over nearly a decade.

Seeing as the government is on a tight budget these days, a plan will be adopted to encourage businesses to invest in reforestation. In the future, after Taiwan receives agreement from the COP, local corporations that do reforestation and receive appropriate verification from NTU's Global Change Research Center and agricultural agencies will be able to count the volume of greenhouse gases "saved" against total emissions. "There are many ways to reduce, and there are many areas in which Taiwan can improve," says Liu Chung-ming.

Reducing greenhouse gases can be considered the most important task for the future survival of our species in the 21st century. Will mankind be capable of permanently keeping a promise it makes to itself, posterity, and the planet? Everything depends on it.

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As car and motorcycle engines drone on, toxic matter pours out and greenhouse gases increase. Countries around the world are taking action to reduce greenhouse gases, and it is hoped that low-carbon transportation alternatives will soon be available.

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One breath at a time, forests turn CO2 into greenery. The trees are happy, and our planet remains fit for long-term human habitation.

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Garbage dumps are a major source of methane. If everyone does their part and reduces the amount of refuse they produce, we can cut methane emissions considerably. (photo by Vincent Chang)

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What are greenhouses gases and what is their impact on global warming?

Greenhouse gas

Carbon dioxide

Methane

Nitrous oxide

CFCs

PFCs

SF6

Temperature impact

1

121

310

140-11700

6500-9200

23900

Temp increase %

55%

15%

6%

24%

Miniscule amounts

Miniscule amounts

Source

Burning of fossil fuels

Agriculture

Agriculture, burning of refuse

Industrial products such as refrigerants

Source: Environmental Protection Administration

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What can you do to cool the planet?

1Reduce use of air-conditioning by one hour per day; this saves six kilos of CO2 emissions per year.

2Turn off unneeded lights, thereby saving 3.6 kilos of CO2 annually.

3Open the refrigerator ten fewer times per day, reducing your CO2 output by 2 kilos per annum.

4Use a solar water heater, thereby saving 220 kilos of CO2 per year and NT$1900 per year on your gas bill.

5Do home composting; it can reduce home refuse volume by two-thirds and also lower methane emissions.

6Plant trees; on average a single tree can absorb 4.5 kilos of CO2 per year.

Source: Environmental Protection Administration

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Is there a future for mankind? Nature is giving off alarm bells everywhere, but slowing the pace of climate change will take a global effort to hold down greenhouse gases.