衝突與和平之間:台海新情勢

:::

1998 / 10月

文‧林奇伯



在兩岸中止協商三年之後,今年十月海基會董事長辜振甫與海協會會長汪道涵將於上海再度會晤,兩岸高層會談無疑有了新的契機,但在和談聲中,中共在外交與軍事上卻奏著另一種曲調。

在外交上,雖然美國一再重申對台政策不變,但六月間柯林頓訪問中國大陸時,面對中共的壓力,卻首度公開申明美國對台「三不」政策:不支持台灣獨立、不支持一中一台或兩個中國、不支持台灣加入以國家資格為限的國際組織。

在軍事上,一九九五年中共片面中止兩岸協商,在台灣海峽進行飛彈試射,根據國防部情報顯示,近年來中共更不斷以我軍新一代兵力為假想敵,進行多次軍事演習,另外,今年中共剛出爐的國防報告書亦一再重申,不排除對台用武。

和平與衝突之間,我們所面臨的是如何詭譎的情勢?在兩岸復談前夕,本刊特別針對台海政治與軍事的新動向,做一深度的分析報導。

相關文章

近期文章

EN

War and Peace-- Recent Military and Diplomatic Developments in the Taiwan <E>Strait


(Eric Lin)

After a three-year interruption in negotiations, this October, Koo Chen-fu, head of the ROC's Straits Exchange Foundation, and Wang Daohan, head of the PRC's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, will have their second meeting, this time in Shanghai. This is undoubtedly a new opportunity for high-level discussions between the two sides. But even amidst the sounds of negotiations, in diplomatic and military affairs the PRC is singing quite another tune.

On the diplomatic front, despite repeated US assurances that its policy toward Taiwan has not changed, when Bill Clinton visited China in the June, under PRC pressure, for the first time he publicly enunciated the US policy of "three noes" toward Taiwan: no support for Taiwan independence, no support for "one China and one Taiwan" or "two Chinas," and no support for Taiwan entry into international organizations based on statehood.

In military affairs, after the PRC unilaterally broke off negotiations in 1995, they initiated a series of missile tests in the Taiwan Strait. According to the ROC Ministry of Defense, in recent years the PRC has continually seen Taiwan's new generation of military capabilities as its primary hypothetical enemy and undertaken numerous military exercises based on this premise. In addition, the national defense report just issued by the PRC emphasized repeatedly that the possibility of using armed force against Taiwan could not be excluded.

Caught between peace and conflict, what precisely is the situation Taiwan finds itself in? On the eve of the resumption of negotiations between the two sides, Sinorama has prepared an in-depth report on new developments in political and military affairs.

X 使用【台灣光華雜誌】APP!
更快速更方便!