Like old friends, Taiwan and the Philippines have been holding a major gathering every two years. These scientific conferences, which began in 2007, enable the two sides to discuss in depth the potential and outlook for regional scientific cooperation between them. The fifth conference, held in 2016, saw the establishment of the Volcano, Ocean, Typhoon, Earthquake Technical Working Group and the launch of a collaborative research program in these fields, known as the VOTE program. At the eighth conference, in 2023, in light of the excellent results achieved so far, the two sides decided to implement the third phase of the project starting in 2024.

A complementary relationship

As neighbors located in the Western Pacific Ocean, Taiwan and the Philippines both experience intense weather systems such as typhoons. “The Philippines is especially hard hit. On average more than 20 typhoons enter the Philippines’ maritime exclusive economic zone each year, while nine impact land areas. In Taiwan we have about two or three per year,” says Fong Chin-tzu, deputy administrator of Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration (CWA), explaining in a nutshell one of challenges shared by the two countries.

Ben Jong-dao Jou, professor emeritus in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Taiwan University, relates that when Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan in August 2009, he was head of the Meteorology Division at the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction. At that time he recommended that Taiwanese weather experts should improve their knowledge of the dynamics of intense weather events in order to extend the warning time before the arrival of typhoons. “From a geographical perspective, the Philippines is ‘upstream’ from Taiwan, so if we could strengthen collaboration with the Philippines and get earlier access to observational data on typhoons passing over Luzon Island and the surrounding seas, this would be extremely beneficial for Taiwan’s typhoon forecasting.”

Accordingly, from 2009 Taiwan provided continuous assistance to the Philippines to build facilities including 15 automatic weather observation stations, a data monitoring center, and an upper-­atmosphere observation station, thereby enhancing both countries’ ability to predict the path of typhoons and reduce the damage they cause. That same year, Taiwan and the Philippines founded the APEC Research Center for Typhoon and Society within the framework of the Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in order to gather typhoon data and research from various countries and study the social and economic impacts of typhoons in the region. In 2016 the two countries launched the VOTE program to further advance scientific research in both nations through cooperation between their academic communities and weather agencies.

Fong Chin-tzu, deputy administrator of the Central Weather Administration, points out that a country’s weather forecasting capabilities are rooted in its overall performance in science and technology.

Due to their geographic proximity, Taiwan and the Philippines face very similar types of natural disasters. The map shows the path of 2023’s Typhoon Doksuri, which first moved westward over the northern Philippines and then turned north toward Taiwan. (courtesy of CWA)

Through the Taiwan–Philippines VOTE program, Taiwan has assisted the Philippines in constructing weather models and has trained local staff in professional weather forecasting. (courtesy of CWA)

From personnel training to data sharing

“A country’s weather forecasting capabilities are rooted in its overall scientific and technological performance,” says Fong Chin-tzu. “Taiwan is somewhat more advanced in this area and can export relatively more knowledge and technology.” Ben Jou notes that generally speaking, people in the Philippines working in relevant fields can process simple climate data, but cannot handle the data generated by complex, rapidly changing intense weather. Climate and weather are not the same: Weather refers to short-term changes in the atmosphere, which are highly variable. “For weather forecasting, you need to have the capability to process and analyze data very rapidly.”

The data gathered by multiple weather stations in different locations is complex and detailed, and includes temperature, humidity, precipitation volume, windspeed, wind direction, air pressure, and more. Fong explains that each link in the chain of processing, screening, and optimally utilizing such data involves science and technology in a process known to weather experts as “data assimilation.”

The assimilated data is fed into computer weather models. Although the weather models used around the world are broadly similar, in each location adjustments must be made depending on local conditions to achieve greater accuracy. For many years now Taiwan has been sharing its advanced Typhoon Analysis and Forecast Integration System (TAFIS) with the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to help them build their own models and enhance the effectiveness of their typhoon operations. At the same time Taiwan has been training Filipino technical staff in radar-derived precipitation estimates, oceanographic forecasting models, and short-term climate forecasting, and over the years some progress has been made.

Besides his expertise in meteorology, Ben Jou has also shared his experience in working with the Agency of Rural Development and Soil and Water Conservation of Taiwan’s Ministry of Agriculture with his counterparts in the Philippines, to assist them in estimating rainfall volume during torrential rains in mountain areas. By setting up raindrop spectrographs and collecting near-ground data on the microphysical characteristics of precipitation, they are laying the foundations for the construction of a real-time debris flow (landslide) warning system.

Cooperation goes both ways. The Philippines shares quantitative data gathered by its local radar and sounding (radiosonde) stations, thereby enabling Taiwan to get a head start in forecasting the path of typhoons and to make more precise weather forecasts. Ben Jou notes that as the powerful Typhoon Meranti approached in 2016, radar data from Taiwan and the Philippines was combined to create comprehensive maps of the storm’s radar reflectivity. The first-hand data provided by the Philippines enabled Taiwan’s disaster response authorities to make full preparations before the typhoon’s arrival.

Looking from another perspective, due to Taiwan’s geopolitical status it is not a member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), so having access to first-hand observational data from the Philippines is even more important for improving the accuracy of weather monitoring and forecasting. Moreover, the Philippines often makes use of its participation in international organizations to invite Taiwan to share its experience and get to know international colleagues. Such interactions are beneficial to both Taiwan and the Philippines.

Ben Jong-dao Jou, professor emeritus in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Taiwan University, helped the Philippines to set up raindrop spectrographs and collect near-ground data on the microphysical characteristics of precipitation, thereby laying the foundations for a real-time debris flow warning system.

By combining data from Taiwan and the Philippines, experts were able to create comprehensive radar maps of Typhoon Meranti in 2016. (courtesy of CWA)

Typhoon Morakot inflicted enormous damage on Taiwan in August 2009. At the time Ben Jou suggested that Taiwan work with the Philippines to access information on typhoons as they pass over Luzon and the surrounding seas, providing data that could greatly assist Taiwan in typhoon monitoring and forecasting.

Transnational undersea collaboration

The chairman of the VOTE Technical Working Group of Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Council is Professor Hsu Shu-kun, dean of the College of Earth Sciences at National Central University. He says: “My research is mainly focused on using physics to study the planet. However, most of my work takes place at sea, and is called ‘marine geophysics.’” His specialty includes surveying the structure of the seafloor, which is essential to a variety of tasks including laying undersea cables, setting up seabed-­mounted offshore wind farms, measuring the force of the Kuroshio Current, prospecting for undersea oilfields, and recovering sunken cultural heritage. Furthermore, “Many earthquakes occur in subduction zones and oceanic trenches at tectonic plate boundaries where the plates are buried beneath the seabed, so surveying the structure of oceanic trenches is also part of what we do.”

One of the tools that scientists use to understand seafloor geology is sonar. Hsu explains that electro­magnetic waves rapidly attenuate in seawater, but sound can be transmitted over long distances. By projecting sound into the water and detecting the refraction and reflection of the acoustic waves, experts can discern the geological structures beneath the seabed. Any discontinuity in the subsea strata indicates that an external force has altered the seafloor. In short, this means that a major earthquake has occurred in that location.

Hsu mentions that one of the goals of the VOTE program is to understand the topography of the seafloor from Xiaoliuqiu Island (off Taiwan’s Pingtung County) to the Manila Trench subduction zone. “From the Ryukyu Islands of Japan to Taiwan and then the Philippines, we are all located at the place where the Philippine Sea tectonic plate meets the Eurasian plate, so we share a common foundation.” Hsu says that many earthquakes occur in the subduction zones between tectonic plates, but the existing data about conditions in the Manila Trench was more than 20 years old and very imprecise, so there was no clear answer to the questions of whether there had been major earthquakes in the Manila Trench and whether it is potential source of future tsunamis.

Today, thanks to collaboration through the VOTE program, Hsu’s team is able to use sonar reflectivity to analyze the morphology of the ocean floor and discover clear instances of compression and even ruptures in the seafloor sediment. This suggests that there have been a number of major earthquakes over time caused by movements between the tectonic plates in the Manila Trench subduction zone. Surveys of the seafloor structure help us to surmise what changes have occurred in the past.

“This is a great opportunity for us to collaborate with the Philippines, and this research can help us to understand each other better. Taiwan’s oceanographic studies are more advanced than those in Southeast Asia, so taking part in this transnational research can benefit our neighbors while also helping us to understand ourselves,” says Hsu earnestly.

Marine geophysicist Hsu Shu-kun is studying the plate tectonics of the Manila Trench subduction zone as part of efforts to build an early warning system for earthquakes and tsunamis.

Oceanographic studies are more advanced in Taiwan than in Southeast Asia, so commitment to transnational research can benefit our neighbors while helping us to better understand Taiwan. The photo shows the Taiwanese marine research vessel Legend. (courtesy of Hsu Shu-kun)

Seismic airguns are used to produce acoustic waves that travel to the seafloor and are reflected back, allowing researchers to learn the structure of the seabed. The image shows the results of geological studies of the Manila Trench. (courtesy of Hsu Shu-kun)

A key to understanding Taiwan

“Meteorological research is the air force, Professor Hsu’s work is the navy, and I am the army.” With this simple metaphor, Lee Yuan-hsi, a professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at National Chung Cheng University, depicts the division of labor in the VOTE program. He then explains his own research interests: “I really enjoy studying movements of the earth’s crust that lead to mountain formation, such as how Taiwan’s mountains took shape.”

The island of Taiwan was formed by the collision of the Philippine tectonic plate with the Eurasian plate forcing land up above the surface of the ocean. When did this begin? How have the plates moved? Lee aims to study the entire evolutionary process in detail. “In fact, there are many different opinions about the model for plate movements. But unless such theories are tested we will never know if they are right.” This is one reason he joined the VOTE program and goes to the trouble of traveling to the Philippines and Japan in search of evidence. “If there is similar evidence in three places for a given model, then the chances of that model being correct are very high.”

He first describes his research on Mindoro, the seventh largest island in the Philippines. He notes that Mindoro is incredibly similar to Taiwan. There have long been differing views among academics about when mountain formation took place on Mindoro, but Lee has discovered that it occurred at virtually the same time as in Taiwan, about 37 million years ago. Taiwan and Min­doro were formed ­under similar conditions and have similar geologic histories, which is why the two are so alike.

He adds another island secret: “Did you know that the mountains of Taiwan’s Coastal Range are in fact part of the Luzon Volcanic Arc?” He plays a model of tectonic plate movements for us, and as we watch the various plates in motion he explains: “Besides part of Taiwan having been uplifted by its own mountain formation process, some of Taiwan’s mountains originated in the Luzon Arc and attached themselves to Taiwan, so that our Coastal Range is in fact part of the Luzon Arc. This is why going to the Philippines for research not only enables one to better understand the history of the Luzon Arc, but also to better understand Taiwan’s Coastal Range mountains.”

As Lee often tells his students: “You can’t fully understand Taiwan just by looking at Taiwan itself, because a lot of information from the process of geological evolution has not been preserved in Taiwan and you have to go to Japan and the Philippines instead.” His words encapsulate the idea of the world as one big family.

Professor Lee Yuan-hsi of the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at National Chung Cheng University explains that a great deal of evidence related to Taiwan’s formation can be found in the Philippines, so to understand Taiwan one needs to go there.

When an image of the Philippines’ Mindoro Island is turned through 180 degrees (left) and compared with an image of Taiwan (right), we see that the two are remarkably similar. (courtesy of Lee Yuan-hsi)

As he does field research in the Philippines, Lee Yuan-hsi often feels the similarity of its geology with that of Taiwan. The photo shows a mountain area in northeastern Mindoro Island that is akin to Eastern Taiwan. The types of rock are also very comparable. (courtesy of Lee Yuan-hsi)